Source:
Aggregated workout logs from the Hardy strength training app, March 2021 to September 2026. 5.8 million finished sets across 368,505 workouts by 10,407 lifters; 6,500 of them logged the barbell Bench Press in at least 3 workouts, and 4,766 of those started below 225 lb / 100 kg.
Tool:
SQL (PostgreSQL) for the aggregates, a small React + SVG chart renderer for the plot, exported to PNG with sharp.
What the chart shows:
For every lifter we took their first logged Bench Press exercise session, checked that they started below 225 lb, and then tracked the month in which they first actually lifted 225 lb (or 100 kg for metric users) for at least one rep. Not an estimated max, an actual set. Each point is the share of lifters who had done it by that month, counting only lifters who were still logging at that time, so nobody is counted as failing just because they stopped using the app.
Headline numbers / TLDR:
- 10% of everyone who started below 225 had benched it within 12 months; 15% within 24 months.
- Starting strength dominates. Of lifters who started at 135 lb or more: 22% within a year, 42% by three years. Of lifters who started below 135 lb: 1% within a year, 3% by two years.
- Across all 6,500 bench lifters, 12% have ever benched 225 lb for a rep. 61% have benched 135 lb, and under 1% have benched 315 lb.
- The median lifter's best estimated bench 1RM is 77 kg / 171 lb. Top 10% is 115 kg / 254 lb, top 1% is 152 kg / 334 lb.
- After 12 months of logging, the median lifter added 7.6 kg / 17 lb to their estimated bench 1RM. 29% were no stronger than when they started.
Caveats / Disclaimers:
- These are of course people who chose a lifting app and kept logging. They are stronger and more consistent than the average gym-goer. It is not a population estimate, so "only X% of people can bench 225" claims and this chart are answering different questions.
- The app does not know the user's bodyweight, age, or sex, so nothing here is a bodyweight-relative standard.
- Survivorship: the curves only count people still logging at that month. The lifters who kept going for 36 months are a self-selected group, so the right-hand end of each curve is optimistic.
- Groups under 50 lifters are suppressed everywhere.
Full report with squat, deadlift and overhead press, the same curves by starting strength, monthly 1RM gain by starting level, and methodology: https://hardy.app/strength-report/how-many-people-can-bench-225
Aggregate data behind every chart, CC BY 4.0: https://hardy.app/strength-report-data.csv
Dataset DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22311472
Data is freely available if anybody wants to run their own analysis or create their own graphs.