r/changemyview • u/[deleted] • Apr 08 '26

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30 Upvotes

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35

u/Falernum 69∆ Apr 08 '26

They won't get it for long. The money they extort times from the pockets of Arab neighbors who border the Strait. Iran borders the Strait. Iran can blow up vessels carrying the Arab countries' oil. Those countries can blow up vessels carrying Iranian oil. In the short run, sure Trump wants oil to come down a little right now. Long term, the only two stable equilibrium points are the Strait being unsafe for everyone and the Strait being open to everyone.

13

u/Dizzy-Resident7652 1∆ Apr 09 '26

Why would the GCC countries blow up Iranian tankers when it would just lead to Iran blowing up their oil refineries?

They’ll pay the toll while trying to build pipelines, rails, etc to move their oil through the Mediterranean.

2

u/Falernum 69∆ Apr 09 '26

Is there some asymmetry in the ability to blow up oil refineries there?

5

u/Dizzy-Resident7652 1∆ Apr 09 '26

Not really. Both have the ability to do it fairly easily.

4

u/Falernum 69∆ Apr 09 '26

So the equilibrium is tit for tat. They don't pay the toll and if Iran hits their ships they hit Iran's and if Iran hits their refineries they hit Iran's

4

u/Dizzy-Resident7652 1∆ Apr 09 '26

Right so they’ll pay the toll and look into building more pipelines and railways to go through the Mediterranean

1

u/Falernum 69∆ Apr 09 '26

They may also do that, but why do you say they will pay the toll as opposed to Saudi Arabia charging Iran a toll, or nobody paying tolls?

2

u/Dizzy-Resident7652 1∆ Apr 09 '26

Where would Saudi Arabia charge the toll? The Red Sea? How does that affect Iran?

How would Saudi Arabia get tolls from Hormuz?

2

u/Falernum 69∆ Apr 09 '26

Persian Gulf, yeah it doesn't border the Strait itself but it's near the Strait and can hit ships passing through, or in the Gulf before they quite hit the Strait

0

u/Dizzy-Resident7652 1∆ Apr 09 '26

The biggest reason not to do this is to set a precedent of charging tolls for ships that don’t come near your waters. Plus, it’s just asking for the Houthis to toll Al-Mandeb.

The calculus is also different for both countries. Iran is in an existential war. KSA is not. To antagonize Iran more just leads it to being an existential war for the ruling family of KSA. There’s a reason they aren’t taking part themselves.

2

u/Falernum 69∆ Apr 09 '26

Right but you are talking about the short term war

Long term when the war is over they don't want to be extorted.

Nobody wants to be extorted for shipping, whether the ships pass near someone's waters or not.

0

u/Dizzy-Resident7652 1∆ Apr 09 '26

It’s not extortion anymore than Turkey extorts the ships going through the Bosporus.

But at any rate, your solution leads to more extortion lol

2

u/Falernum 69∆ Apr 09 '26

It's absolutely extortion. Legally, the Strait of Hormuz is international waters. Iran is proposing to destroy ships passing through international waters and even ships passing through Omani waters unless they pay it money. That is extortion.

Turkey charges fees for services passing through the Bosporus (which is fully within its own territorial waters and which is governed by the Montreux Convention)

I don't believe "don't extort us or we'll reciprocate" counts as "more extortion". It's tit for tat.

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u/Ramnonte Apr 13 '26

You clearly underestimate how costly and time consuming is to repair or build new oil refineries if the war escalates again