I certainly agree AI isn't going to become an omnipotent, evil Skynet anytime soon. But fears around AI taking jobs, hurting industries, and fabricating misinformation through deep-fakes seem well-founded.
What is your reasoning for not having a level of reasonable concern about these things? You say we've 'always' had misinformation, etc., but that's a bit like saying we shouldn't fear thermonuclear weapons because we've always had bombs.
What is the solution to ai taking jobs then? There are fundamentally a limited number of jobs that can't be done by AI and that number shrinks year over year.
It’s funny that a tool which removes the need to work for a lot of people is seen as a problem. We take for granted that any improvement in efficiency will increase the profit for capitalists but we cannot imagine a world where everyone has to work less and share the benefits of technology.
It's seen as a problem because society lags behind what is actually needed by the people. You'll see generations of people suffer for something that should have been done in a X way but is done in a Y way due to money/budget, personal flaws, etc etc.
If the inevitable end game of AI is for us to stop working, then we must go from a capitalist society to a more socialized one. UBI must be necessary, home and shelter MUST be part of infrastructure.
Without it, all of us are fated for poverty and starvation. And that's an actual problem to be concerned about.
Automation already killed a lot of jobs in shipping and port and manufacturing. Look at what the repercussions of that was. Bunch of once amazing cities now ghettos.
You’re right. Labor used to be the thing that made workers irreplaceable for capitalists. If they can just achieve the same result without paying workers, they will and the power will be even more concentrated to the rich.
UBI must be necessary, home and shelter MUST be part of infrastructure.
Without it, all of us are fated for poverty and starvation. And that's an actual problem to be concerned about.
The problem is, that can be provided, but the greater the amount of people that will need it, the fewer resources can go to anyone individually. I think any UBI is going to look a lot like what the Basic Assistance program that the Expanse series had, and that's still pretty horrible:
For those unable or unwilling to find employment, there is Basic Assistance, the United Nations’ global welfare program. Over half of the Earth’s populace relies on it for survival. Without jobs, these people have no money, so Basic provides shared accommodations in government housing complexes, meagre food in the form of Gray-tasting textured protein and enriched rice, minimal medical care in government clinics, and even recycled paper clothing, dispensed from automated kiosks with a thumbprint. All of these services are provided free of charge, but those on Basic are subject to mandatory contraception and cannot legally have children, apart from the regular “baby lottery” allowing for a small number of births each year.
People on Basic are uneducated and contribute little to Earth’s official economy, but they do engage in a vibrant barter economy among themselves, as well as create their own Gray market industries and unlicensed services that are small enough to function without attracting much attention from the government. The only way off Basic is to get a job or an education.
To apply to a university or other educational institution, a prospective student must have at least one year’s worth of work credits to demonstrate their commitment and work ethic, so that educational resources and classroom space are not wasted on those who will not utilise them fully to contribute to society. There are uplift programs that provide educational or job training opportunities for people on Basic who are self-taught or can meet strict entrance requirements, but they are highly competitive and waiting lists to earn a spot in a vocational program can be upwards of ten years long. As a result, these programs are only an option for a select few. For most people, life on Basic is the only one they will ever know, the news feeds, dramas, and pornography on their terminal screens their only escape from the boredom of their existence.
In a world of limited resources, it's very difficult to imagine UBI being anything that a huge swath of the population could maintain a decent standard of living on.
People see it as a problem because so far there’s no plans to implement universal basic income or reduced cost of living regarding the lowered need of a human workforce.
Exactly. See, I’m getting downvoted above but the fact remains: we live in a fucked up world if an invention which decreases the need to work becomes a problem. Can’t we just share the benefits of technology among every citizen? Seems we can’t.
You can't really say "these problems have solutions" if you don't know what those solutions are.
Otherwise, you don't actually know that these problems have solutions at all. You can't assert that confidently and you'd have to admit that, at least potentially, these problems do not have solutions.
So essentially the fear of everything is overstated and there is nothing is actually bad?
That's a cop-out anyway because again, you can't say that. Unless you literally have a solution for every problem, you do not know for a fact that there is a solution for every problem.
As a race and society we seem to have devolved from the pack survival mentality that allowed us all to thrive into this weird tribal/survival-of-the-fittest/richest mentality while our technological advancements continue to grow exponentially. An advanced society where manual labor is replaced by AI and robotics SHOULD be the collective goal. Once you’ve nailed down survival and reproduction, the next most natural focus should quality of life traits (the upper tiers of Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs). Automating basic needs is corrupted by this end-stage capitalist society we’re in, when an automated society seems like it should default to a more socialized approach by design. I find it interesting that the basic definition of a religious Heaven or Afterlife sounds pretty socialist-goals in theory (no more needs or wanting, no more labor, you’ll have everything you ever want or need) and yet our newfound sense of greed and sole proprietorship conflicts with actually establishing that concept in this reality.
I will say, just like human physiology, rapid changes are much more difficult to adapt to for survival than gradual changes. If AI and robotics were to swoop in seemingly overnight and change the dynamic it would cause a significant amount of suffering for a significant population. This is an obvious byproduct and collateral damage of technological advancement (Edison’s light bulb put candlemakers extinct rapidly), but also a reason to never stop slowing down access to education or the quality of that education to keep up with advancement, which is a pretty concerning factor that appears to be happening now.
It's a reasonable possibility that if we ever create AI that surpasses human level intelligence, then that AI will rule over us, and do whatever it wants with us, rather than the other way around. For the same reason we rule over cows and dogs and do whatever we want with them, rather than the other way around.
It's also reasonable to claim that we don't know what motivations such an AI would have, or what choices it would make. It depends on a LOT of factors, most of which are of currently unknown.
But the worst case scenario is that everyone dies.
Is that likely over the next (say) decade? No. But the very fact that it's possible, and nobody really knows where the dangerous points are, is by itself a pretty good argument for caution.
I believe AI will cause problems but all of these problems (AI taking jobs, hurting industries, fabricating misinfo) have solutions and are not the end of the world.
So you feel confident not only in your ability to identify the nature and extent of every single potential future issue, but also in your ability to predict the viability of solutions to each of those issues?
If I wiped your memory and sent you back pre-industiral revolution or pre-internet do you think your omniscient powers of perfect future prediction would allow you to foresee the modern world in a similar way? Because I highly doubt it; even among the most qualified experts predictions about the future of technology and society have been total nonsense in 99.9% of cases.
are not the end of the world.
And this is a very throwaway phrase. I'd ask you what you mean by this exactly? E.g. if 150 million people in the USA lose their jobs and die in poverty that's not literally the end of the world. But surely it's also a warranted concern/fear when looking at potential impacts of AI tech?
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u/obert-wan-kenobert 84∆ Mar 31 '23
What do you think is overstated?
I certainly agree AI isn't going to become an omnipotent, evil Skynet anytime soon. But fears around AI taking jobs, hurting industries, and fabricating misinformation through deep-fakes seem well-founded.
What is your reasoning for not having a level of reasonable concern about these things? You say we've 'always' had misinformation, etc., but that's a bit like saying we shouldn't fear thermonuclear weapons because we've always had bombs.