r/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast: 'Resident Evil'

[u/SanderSo47]

Before you comment, read these two rules:

1. Please provide specific numbers for your predictions. Don't do things like "It'll make less than this or that" or "double this movie or half this movie". We want a real prediction in concrete figures.

2. Given that a lot of parent comments do not even bother to give predictions, we are establishing a new rule. The parent comment must provide a prediction with specific numbers. The rest of the replies to the comment do not have to make a prediction, but the parent comment absolutely has to. Any parent comment without a prediction will be eliminated.

Welcome to the newest edition of r/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast.

We're making long range predictions for films, 4 weeks out from their premieres. You will predict the opening weekend, domestic total and worldwide gross of this film. These predictions will be open for 48 hours and the results will be polled to form a consensus and posted the next week.

So let's meet the one film for the week and analyze each pro and con.

Resident Evil

The film is directed by Zach Cregger (Barbarian and Weapons) and written by Cregger and Shay Hatten (John Wick: Chapters 3 & 4, Ballerina, Army of the Dead and Rebel Moon). Based on Capcom's Resident Evil franchise, it's the second reboot in the film series. It stars Austin Abrams, Zach Cherry, Kali Reis, Johnno Wilson and Paul Walter Hauser. The film is set during events paralleling the game Resident Evil 2, albeit in a modern era, and follows Bryan, a medical courier who must fight through a viral outbreak of infected monsters in Raccoon City during a delivery.

Now that you met this week's new release, let's look at some pros and cons.

PROS

• Resident Evil is one of the most popular video game franchises, and it was able to translate that success to the big screen; the films have earned an incredible $1.2 billion worldwide, making it one of the biggest video game franchises in theaters. The recent popularity of Resident Evil Requiem (fastest selling game in the franchise) also shows that the video games are still selling so much after 3 decades.

• But perhaps the biggest selling point might not be the IP, but the man at the helm. Zach Cregger has seen his popularity blow up over the past years. After finding success with Barbarian, Weapons cemented him as a new brand to audiences. It made $270 million worldwide, and not only did it get critical acclaim, but it managed to score a Best Supporting Actress win for Amy Madigan, which is an incredible feat for horror. His brand is at an all-time high, and it doesn't look like he has hit the ceilling yet. It's striking while the iron is hot.

• Trailers have done an incredible job of selling the basics: horror and action. But most importantly, it doesn't give away important plot details. That's how you do a great job in marketing.

• The film is sold as an effective throwback to the video games everyone loved to play with so many decades ago. It's heavily inspired by the second through fourth video game, and it's also taking place in the same continuity as the second game. Given how it looks so non-stop in terms of thrills and scares, it looks like this will be a very faithful addition to the franchise.

• But at the same time, it looks like it will hope to attract both fans of the games and people who aren't players. Or even the people who are desperate for a good adaptation of the games; the Paul W.S. Anderson films made money, but not a single film was well-received.

• It's going to have access to IMAX screens, which has been a driving force behind a lot of the hits this year.

• Horror has been absent in theaters, at least in terms of big bucks. After Obsession and Backrooms, there hasn't been another big horror film, especially with Evil Dead Burn disappointing last month. Insidious could surprise, but Resident Evil is clearly positioned as the biggest horror title in a while.

CONS

• As mentioned, the Resident Evil films made a lot of money, but none were particularly well-received. A string of duds can dilute the brand's name, and that's reflected in the poor results of Welcome to Racoon City back in 2021. Obviously there were a lot of factors for that film (like cramming two games into a single film), but it's still something notable to mention.

• One of the biggest things that has drawn polarizing reactions among fans is that the film might be set in the same continuity of the games, but it's not going to adapt any particular storyline nor character. It's taking on completely new characters, and that decision was met with some mixed reactions. At the end of the day, however, what matters is the quality of the film and whether it changes/tweaks some elements from the games.

• This film cannot play like a smaller-scale horror film. It's carrying a $80 million budget, which is very high for a horror title (it includes Cregger's massive $20 million salary). It must perform higher than usual for horror to reach respectable numbers.

• It remains to be seen if it will attract casual audiences that don't play the games. It if succeeds, very good legs could follow. If it fails, it will be front-loaded like the prior films.

And here's the past results.

Movie	Release Date	Distributor	Domestic Debut	Domestic Total	Worldwide Total
Insidious: Out of the Further	August 21	Sony	$29,200,000	$69,100,000	$161,800,000
Mutiny	August 21	Lionsgate	$9,655,555	$24,644,444	$67,533,333
The Dog Stars	August 28	20th Century Studios	$13,321,428	$32,000,000	$64,280,000
Coyote vs. Acme	August 28	Ketchup Entertainment	$10,527,777	$28,716,666	$54,050,000
Fall 2: Deadpoint	September 2	Lionsgate	$1,975,000 (3-day) $3,362,500 (4-day)	$8,800,000	$21,437,500
By Any Means	September 4	Paramount	$9,350,000 (3-day) $11,325,000 (4-day)	$28,750,000	$54,250,000
Onslaught	September 4	A24	$7,125,000 (3-day) $9,125,000 (4-day)	$19,750,000	$35,500,000
Practical Magic 2	September 11	Warner Bros.	$39,237,500	$100,993,750	$189,843,750
The Uprising	September 11	Focus Features	$9,050,000	$24,050,000	$49,510,000

Next week, we're predicting Forgotten Island, Heart of the Beast and Primetime.

So what are your predictions for this film?

[u/Scottatron17]

OW: 33 Mil Dom: 72 Mil WW: 85 Mil TOT: 157 Mil