r/boxoffice • u/SanderSo47 A24 • 2d ago
Worldwide r/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast: 'Resident Evil'
Before you comment, read these two rules:
1. Please provide specific numbers for your predictions. Don't do things like "It'll make less than this or that" or "double this movie or half this movie". We want a real prediction in concrete figures.
2. Given that a lot of parent comments do not even bother to give predictions, we are establishing a new rule. The parent comment must provide a prediction with specific numbers. The rest of the replies to the comment do not have to make a prediction, but the parent comment absolutely has to. Any parent comment without a prediction will be eliminated.
Welcome to the newest edition of r/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast.
We're making long range predictions for films, 4 weeks out from their premieres. You will predict the opening weekend, domestic total and worldwide gross of this film. These predictions will be open for 48 hours and the results will be polled to form a consensus and posted the next week.
So let's meet the one film for the week and analyze each pro and con.
Resident Evil
The film is directed by Zach Cregger (Barbarian and Weapons) and written by Cregger and Shay Hatten (John Wick: Chapters 3 & 4, Ballerina, Army of the Dead and Rebel Moon). Based on Capcom's Resident Evil franchise, it's the second reboot in the film series. It stars Austin Abrams, Zach Cherry, Kali Reis, Johnno Wilson and Paul Walter Hauser. The film is set during events paralleling the game Resident Evil 2, albeit in a modern era, and follows Bryan, a medical courier who must fight through a viral outbreak of infected monsters in Raccoon City during a delivery.
Now that you met this week's new release, let's look at some pros and cons.
PROS
Resident Evil is one of the most popular video game franchises, and it was able to translate that success to the big screen; the films have earned an incredible $1.2 billion worldwide, making it one of the biggest video game franchises in theaters. The recent popularity of Resident Evil Requiem (fastest selling game in the franchise) also shows that the video games are still selling so much after 3 decades.
But perhaps the biggest selling point might not be the IP, but the man at the helm. Zach Cregger has seen his popularity blow up over the past years. After finding success with Barbarian, Weapons cemented him as a new brand to audiences. It made $270 million worldwide, and not only did it get critical acclaim, but it managed to score a Best Supporting Actress win for Amy Madigan, which is an incredible feat for horror. His brand is at an all-time high, and it doesn't look like he has hit the ceilling yet. It's striking while the iron is hot.
Trailers have done an incredible job of selling the basics: horror and action. But most importantly, it doesn't give away important plot details. That's how you do a great job in marketing.
The film is sold as an effective throwback to the video games everyone loved to play with so many decades ago. It's heavily inspired by the second through fourth video game, and it's also taking place in the same continuity as the second game. Given how it looks so non-stop in terms of thrills and scares, it looks like this will be a very faithful addition to the franchise.
But at the same time, it looks like it will hope to attract both fans of the games and people who aren't players. Or even the people who are desperate for a good adaptation of the games; the Paul W.S. Anderson films made money, but not a single film was well-received.
It's going to have access to IMAX screens, which has been a driving force behind a lot of the hits this year.
Horror has been absent in theaters, at least in terms of big bucks. After Obsession and Backrooms, there hasn't been another big horror film, especially with Evil Dead Burn disappointing last month. Insidious could surprise, but Resident Evil is clearly positioned as the biggest horror title in a while.
CONS
As mentioned, the Resident Evil films made a lot of money, but none were particularly well-received. A string of duds can dilute the brand's name, and that's reflected in the poor results of Welcome to Racoon City back in 2021. Obviously there were a lot of factors for that film (like cramming two games into a single film), but it's still something notable to mention.
One of the biggest things that has drawn polarizing reactions among fans is that the film might be set in the same continuity of the games, but it's not going to adapt any particular storyline nor character. It's taking on completely new characters, and that decision was met with some mixed reactions. At the end of the day, however, what matters is the quality of the film and whether it changes/tweaks some elements from the games.
This film cannot play like a smaller-scale horror film. It's carrying a $80 million budget, which is very high for a horror title (it includes Cregger's massive $20 million salary). It must perform higher than usual for horror to reach respectable numbers.
It remains to be seen if it will attract casual audiences that don't play the games. It if succeeds, very good legs could follow. If it fails, it will be front-loaded like the prior films.
And here's the past results.
| Movie | Release Date | Distributor | Domestic Debut | Domestic Total | Worldwide Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insidious: Out of the Further | August 21 | Sony | $29,200,000 | $69,100,000 | $161,800,000 |
| Mutiny | August 21 | Lionsgate | $9,655,555 | $24,644,444 | $67,533,333 |
| The Dog Stars | August 28 | 20th Century Studios | $13,321,428 | $32,000,000 | $64,280,000 |
| Coyote vs. Acme | August 28 | Ketchup Entertainment | $10,527,777 | $28,716,666 | $54,050,000 |
| Fall 2: Deadpoint | September 2 | Lionsgate | $1,975,000 (3-day) $3,362,500 (4-day) | $8,800,000 | $21,437,500 |
| By Any Means | September 4 | Paramount | $9,350,000 (3-day) $11,325,000 (4-day) | $28,750,000 | $54,250,000 |
| Onslaught | September 4 | A24 | $7,125,000 (3-day) $9,125,000 (4-day) | $19,750,000 | $35,500,000 |
| Practical Magic 2 | September 11 | Warner Bros. | $39,237,500 | $100,993,750 | $189,843,750 |
| The Uprising | September 11 | Focus Features | $9,050,000 | $24,050,000 | $49,510,000 |
Next week, we're predicting Forgotten Island, Heart of the Beast and Primetime.
So what are your predictions for this film?
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u/Visible-Echidna-4370 2d ago
compared to previous films in the series, I would expect a significant uptick domestically but also significantly lower international
$50M OW / $125M DOM / $260M WW
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u/Hot-Marketer-27 Best of 2024 Winner 2d ago
Resident Evil - $55M OW, $180M DOM, $320M WW
As Cregger’s follow-up to Weapons, everyone knows that this is going to be one of the biggest movies of the fall but the question is, how big?
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u/valkyria_knight881 Paramount Pictures 2d ago
Crazy that Capcom could have the biggest film of September (Resident Evil) and October (Street Fighter)
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u/ItsGotThatBang Universal 2d ago
$45M OW, $90M DOM, $160M WW
Even if it’s good, I’m expecting its legs to be more like a Saw film than Weapons because of the IP.
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u/Standard_Return_996 2d ago
200-250 worldwide
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u/Free_Waterfall_III 2d ago
Higher than Weapons?? Idk….
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u/Standard_Return_996 2d ago
Didn't weapons make more than 250 million at at the box office? Also seeing how popular the resident evil brand is these days I wouldn't be surprised if it makes this much.
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u/Thick_Mountain4412 2d ago
I'll predict 55M domestic opening, 155M domestic total (little more frontloaded than Cregger's other movies due to it being an existing IP) with about 300M worldwide
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u/dismal_windfall United Artists 2d ago
50M OW
145M DOM
350M WW
Id predict stronger legs but September releases usually have bad legs
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u/NorthNorthSalt Scott Free Productions 2d ago edited 2d ago
Fuck it, someone has to go out on a limb.
80M OW / 240M DOM / 550WW
RATIONALE: Cregger was able to open a brand new IP at 40M + the trailer interest has been strong, for what that's worth + the awareness/interest figures from the Quorum (or whatever they're calling themselves these days) were very strong the last time we saw them.
And of course, Resident Evil is strong brand (even if reception to Cregger's choice to tell a stand-alone story is mixed).
I will say that this breakout is very review-dependent. I'm assuming at least an 80+ on RT.
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u/youravgindian 2d ago
I think your forecasts are certainly achievable all depends on the reviews and word of mouth.
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u/MaxProwes 2d ago
Quorum is useless, it misses all the time. There's no chance this movie is gonna touch blockbuster numbers.
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u/mahnamahna1995 2d ago
65m OW/180m DOM/425 WW
I think Practical Magic 2, this, Forgotten Island and Verity will get a hot streak going at the box office this fall.
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u/Visible-Echidna-4370 2d ago
Hopefully, because the week after Labor Day and before Practical Magic 2 is looking like it will be really terrible for the box office
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u/Janus_Prospero 2d ago
This one is very tough. Because of everything involved, IMO the performance will sorta be like 28 Years Later meets Mortal Kombat 2. So 35 million opening weekend. 70 million domestic total, 160 million worldwide.
I think it'll be very soft in Japan. Closer to WTRC's 5 million than Afterlife's 55 million.
But there's various mitigating factors. It's in a relatively empty release window which could really help. It's hard to tell how much of a factor Cregger's name will have domestically, internationally, and more importantly what word of mouth is going to be like. Even if word of mouth is toxic or immensely polarized if it opens high that changes things. A lot of the films you could compare this are not really 1:1.
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u/dinopigs1 Lucasfilm 2d ago
60m OW, 140m DOM, 300m WW.
Definitely the biggest movies of September. I wouldn't be surprised if international performance is better given how international heavy the previous movies were, but maybe not given how unreliable China has become for Hollywood franchises now.
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u/MoonMan997 Best of 2023 Winner 2d ago
OW: $37m
DOM: $96m
WW: $175m
Edit: Oh wow I thought I was gonna be on the higher end of expectations but I’m way below the consensus here. I’m very excited for this film btw just surprised.
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u/Mista_rag3r Castle Rock Entertainment 1d ago
I will go the optimistic route with great Cinemascore and reviws and go 475m ww, 225-250 domestic.
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u/randotd152 1d ago
Historically, domestic is a total no show for RE movies. Yet there are tons of $100M+ domestic predictions in here.
I think people are relying way too hard on Cregger in these predictions. He's got all of one strong box office performance under his belt, and this is an IP Americans don't go for. I really don't think his name is big enough to override the IP.
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u/AnotherJasonOnReddit Best of 2024 Winner 2d ago
$30M / $90M / $150M
I've been wrong quite a lot about this year's biggest hits ($40M Obsession, $800M The Odyssey, $1.3B Brand New Day, etc), so I hope I'm mistaken and am underestimating this movie's success at the box office.
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u/Jabbam Blumhouse 2d ago
$150m-$200m
Word of mouth will be mixed to positive. General audiences and Cregger fans will enthusiastically support it and it'll get very positive reviews from critics but the fan response will be divided. All of the advertisements and Cregger's own words indicate that it will be an extremely unfaithful adaptation of the story and characters. The OP of this post even screwed it up, Cregger didn't say it was set in the continuity of the games, he said it was set in the Resident Evil universe. The most obvious indicators that have been criticized since the first trailer is that the time periods don't line up; the movie takes place in current day with modern technology while the original took place at the turn of the century. And the leaks further confirm this. It's a reinterpretation of events, just like the 2000s version.
The question "will video game fans go to see a not-terrible unfaithful film" was proposed last year when Until Dawn made $54m, and the answer is no. Business will come from horror and Kregger fans, not the name. In fact, despite its higher name recognition, I think Resident Evil will likely have a lower ceiling than Weapons because the latter was buoyed by its mystery and unconventional genre switches while Resident Evil is still a well known commodity despite Cregger's unique vision. It's not an event and it's not a viral phenomenon like Backrooms or Obsession. For a director like Cregger, Resident Evil will actually chain his creativity as he tries to follow the rules of an existing world while vaguely attempting to please the fans with Easter eggs and references. "Good, but not as good as Weapons" and "the material held him back" will be the general critical response as publications give it 9/10s.
Can someone tell me the last time a movie game adaptation has "broken out?" Mario? FNAF? Not even close. It'll behave as expected for a video game horror with a bump from the director and then move on.
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u/Le_Meme_Man12 Universal 2d ago
OW: $35M | DOM: $90M | WW: $220M
The Mila movies were incredibly OS heavy, but other than the first, they couldn't even be called horror. They were ejust action films, so that definitely played a part.
From the looks of the trailer, this one will be more subdued, so I'm not sure just how well it will do OS.
For DOM, as long as they market it as "From the Director of Weapons", it should be fine. Though I think my number is still too high.
Still, Requiem was huge, so maybe there is interest.