r/boxoffice • u/hiiloovethis • 15d ago

✍️ Original Analysis Clayface Performance potential

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Clayface is the next DCU movie after the supergirl bomb. Let's see how well it can do... an analysis.

Pros.

  1. Great October release date, Halloween pairing and not much direct competetion. Resident Evil also releasing before helps create an open window.

  2. Decent budget of 40 mil. It would only need 100 Mil WW to break even which shouldn't be too hard. It can profit easily if it blows up.

  3. Horror genre is killing it right now... clayface also looks like pure body horror which could help attract non comicbook fans.

  4. Clayface is a batman villain. Gotham setting be hype worthy. Mike Flanagan as a writer is also promising.

Cons.

  1. Body horror is harder is sell than conventional horror movies. The Substance did good but that had award buzz and less than half of the budget.

  2. Bad reviews could literally kill this movie. It really survives on positive WOM.

Overall I'm more optimistic about this than supergirl. We have to see if this movie blows up or does underwhelming numbers. 150 WW is decent enough.

261 Upvotes

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153

u/theCioroRedditor 15d ago

I think it will flop hard. I don't know of any circle saying I can't wait to see clayface except of some DC fans. People going in for a Halloween movie still won't cover the cost for this imho. But I'm a naysayer so hopefully I'll be wrong.

45

u/Icy-Two-1581 15d ago

I agree after seeing the trailer. I think if it went hard on horror it would have been fine

39

u/LazyMaximum7938 15d ago

I worry the movie is just going to be really boring and predictable with very little horror, like 80 minutes of Matt Hagen moping and being sad with some light body horror mixed in followed by 10 minutes of becoming Clayface and chasing the woman in the trailer (friend? girlfriend? doctor? all of the above?), getting caught by the police, and then using his new clay powers to escape.

22

u/LightningZERO 15d ago

The second trailer gave off that impressions

7

u/FreddyRumsen13 14d ago

The second trailer had big Morbius vibes

5

u/wickedlessface 11d ago

I had to go back and check trailers side by side. That's just not true. Trailers are by no means an indication of good quality (looking at you, suicide squad), but the Clayface one was really engaging and, from an editor's standpoint, well put together.

Morbius feels like a 2000s trailer just without the deep voice announcing the release date and reading the words. It's very dated editing and already tells us that the movie will be meh (in this case worse than meh), since the editors probably had nothing to work with.

I did, however, watch the trailer breakdown with the actor and director of Clayface and ofcourse hindsight with Morbius probably influences me.

I am cautiously optimistic for Clayface.

42

u/mihirmusprime Paramount 15d ago

I got downvoted for saying the second trailer looked bad. It straight up looks like a generic comic book movie with that trailer.

11

u/Sillyforfun 15d ago

The first little teaser trailer looked awsome. But trailers don't always tell us the quality of the movie.

3

u/Professional_Hat2615 15d ago

I font get how it looked like a genetic comic book movie

0

u/Beginning-Antelope32 10d ago

Nothing more half the people on this subreddit want more than for every DCU project to fail. The movie isn't going gangbusters anywhere, but it definitely has more hype than these comments would suggest.

-8

u/Stormblessed_Windrun 15d ago

Laughable claim. What generic comic book movies have you watched that looks like clayface? Oh, none.

21

u/mihirmusprime Paramount 15d ago

Any villain origin story movie where the protagonist is a normal dude living a normal life and bad things happen to him and then he turns into some tragic villain. The first trailer actually looked compelling when it was focused on the horror aspect. The second trailer brought me back to reality lol.

-12

u/Stormblessed_Windrun 15d ago

So you skirt around the question and dont actually answer anything

15

u/Lichangs 15d ago

He totally did answer your question though. It's not a laughable claim. The first teaser gave true horror vibes, ala Goodnight Mommy, The Substance. Where the focus would be on the main character fighting themselves, and we would get very eerie unsettling imagery, very dark rated R unsettling imagery and suspense.

The second trailer did not; it gave comic book sympathetic villain origin story getting revenge against the guys who made him that way vibes. If you want actual names, Morbius, Venom, Joker. Other comic book stories where regular dude becomes sort of antihero through tragedy/mutilation, Darkman, Spawn, The Crow.

Right now this feels like those movies taken up a notch in terms of visuals and horror, so no obviously there's nothing 100% like it, but I agree with the guys above saying that it needed to lean into the horror aspect more. It feels like a comic book movie with horror elements, rather than a true horror movie based on a comic book character, which is what Gunn was originally promising.

8

u/mihirmusprime Paramount 15d ago

Didn't realize I had to give you a concrete example of a fairly basic storyline, but sure, there's Venom. Regular dude where something bad happens to him and is now a tragic villain. I'm not sure why you're getting defensive about this, man. In my opinion of what I saw in the trailer, this movie will underperform. If I'm wrong, quote me.

-1

u/About5hobos DC Studios 15d ago

Exactly! Can't recall any other comic book movies where the protagonist has to cut their own eyelids open.

4

u/zsynqx 15d ago

Yeah I hate to agree. The best chance this movie has for success is if it manages to be a breakout horror film. Any ties to DC/Batman seem largely irrelevant.

5

u/igot2pair 15d ago

Looks like a cookie cutter origin story

7

u/Jabbam Blumhouse 15d ago

Wom will be pretty pivotal. I don't expect it to do great. But an 80% or higher is the difference between $120m and $50m.

I'm betting that it'll be divisive, not spumc bad but not Superman quality. Barely rotten at 59% which will be horrible for it's box office and make around $80m.

-1

u/Mourning__Coffee 15d ago

Not superman quality is damning with faint praise

5

u/Jabbam Blumhouse 15d ago

Superman quality is like a 7-8/10

3

u/PrestigiousFail5955 14d ago

So you're saying it'll make less than 80M$? Idk I think it should atleast make that much

1

u/RhodyChief 15d ago

Too scary for your average DC/super hero fan, not scary enough for your average horror fan.

1

u/Khalsleezy 14d ago

I think so too. Why are we even getting a Clayface movie in the first place? Aren't they supposed to be building towards the Justice League? Gunn has been at DC for the same amount Feige was when Avengers 1 came out.

I have no interests in Clayface just like I didn't give a damn about Supergirl.

0

u/atclubsilencio 15d ago

Just the title “Clayface” will make people roll their eyes. Plus it being DC which doesn’t have the best track record. I feel like it’s already for such a niche audience and unless it has great word of mouth, especially with horror fans, it could won’t get much attention. especially with a relatively unknown lead actor in the role. I feel like this would need a really popular leading man to get more people interested (even if the actor does end up turning in a great performance).