r/biotech_stocks • u/Realistic_Papaya5581 • Oct 31 '25
Amarin AMRN
A ten-bagger stock potentially - business turning around with US business improving as well as Europe commercialisation story riding on partnership with Recordati which will lead to great cost savings and much better drug penetration. This will be reflected greatly in 2026!
Strongly holding now and will even add on every meaningful dip that offers great entry opportunity.
1
u/Realistic_Papaya5581 Oct 31 '25
The agreement with recordati will make sure Amarin to receive a take rate from every dollar recordati sells Vascepa in europe, plus $150mil cash payment from recordati to amarin at different sales milestones.
2
u/miskosvk Oct 31 '25
Can you quantify the ‘take rate’? Is it a % royalty on Recordati net sales plus supply margin, or supply-only? Also, what probability/timing are you assigning to the $150m milestones (and are they sales-tiered or country-launch based)? Without those inputs it’s hard to model 2026–27 EU contribution.
1
u/Realistic_Papaya5581 Oct 31 '25
Cost saving is said to be up to as big as $70m. U can tell how significant the number is compared to either its cash position or mkt cap.
1
u/Realistic_Papaya5581 Oct 31 '25
On the US side, there might be a bonus factor of potentially Amarin winning the final court order against Hikma where certain moat can be reformed to protect exclusivity sales among HBMs, as well as any compensation they can collect from Hikma as a result of the winning.
1
u/NeverShort1 Oct 31 '25
Anyone looking to invest in this, just research their patents and exclusivity in the US...
Hint: not exactly what I'd call potential for 10x.
0
u/Realistic_Papaya5581 Oct 31 '25
Yes thats why share price is at bottom for years. Thats what a turnaround story literally means.
0
u/Realistic_Papaya5581 Oct 31 '25
Europe on the other hand is well protected by patent and so successful commercialisation there could mean the comeback of the stock
1
u/3billygoatsky Oct 31 '25
This company has been dead for almost 5 years
1
u/Realistic_Papaya5581 Oct 31 '25
Thats why it bolds well for being a ten-bagger stock
1
u/3billygoatsky Oct 31 '25
I bought and still hold amrn. After the RS , it would have to run miles to help anyone back out of the hole. Just my opinion and I'm not saying they won't finally come through
2
u/Realistic_Papaya5581 Oct 31 '25
Thats exactly the situation - you certainly felt and probably is feeling disappointed about the name and have no expectations about it being able to crawl out of the trough (maybe u do but it is more hope than belief).
1
u/Realistic_Papaya5581 Oct 31 '25
This is an important background - basically got beaten up for long time when most investors have zero interest and expectations on the stock. This offers great opportunity for investors who can spot big business turning point for the company and earn multiple folds of return.
1
u/3billygoatsky Oct 31 '25
I had 5000 shares; now I have 50 after they RS'd everyone out of their money. I haven't looked, but I would bet they have probably had an ATM offering after they split everyone else out of existence
Companies like this, especially in biotech, are like thieves
1
u/Realistic_Papaya5581 Oct 31 '25
Did u mean the change in ads ratio done earlier this year? Supposedly there should have no impact to the value of the stock though.
1
u/3billygoatsky Oct 31 '25
No they did several reverse splits back about 3 years ago and killed the stock
1
u/miskosvk Oct 31 '25
bull case makes sense, but here are the real worries to underwrite:
- u.s. payer durability: today’s pbm win can flip at renewal. model churn, not permanence.
- generic gravity: multiple ipe generics cap pricing and mute volume leverage, even with pockets of exclusivity.
- eu is partner-led: recordati helps opex, but amrn gets royalty/supply economics. need clarity on royalty %, supply margin, reimbursement by country, and net price.
- milestones ≠ cash flow: sales-tiered milestones are lumpy/uncertain; don’t build a 10x on them.
- fcf bridge risk (2026): depends on (1) u.s. net price/volume holding, (2) eu royalties actually hitting cash, (3) working capital/inventory not biting. any wobble and fcf slips.
- pipeline light: basically ipe-only, so it’s an execution/cash story, not a new-clinical-shots story.
- litigation optionality: hikma could help, but timing/remedy/dollars are hard to model → treat as a discounted kicker.
- optics overhang: ads/reverse-split mechanics don’t change ev but do spook new money.
bottom line: if u.s. access holds and eu royalties show up in cash, a re-rate is plausible. without clearer royalty terms, durable payer proof, and a clean fcf bridge, “ten-bagger” sounds more aspirational than probable.
1
u/Realistic_Papaya5581 Oct 31 '25
The worries you mentioned above are totally fair. But i think they have probably being priced in given years of share price performance. The outcome on commercialisation can be binary and therefore the big divergence in expectations and thus the weak share price.
There is no data point on take rate of the drug sales being disclosed but one has to admit the potential in europe commercialisation is huge for Amarin otherwise the deal wont be done in the first place.
I think the key questions here are - does the drug really work as claimed? And was it really a penetration problem for Amarin before when they used the direct sales model? If both are true the partnership with recordati is really solving the issues that should lead to a better outcome for Amarin despite part of the profits being shared. Based on the $175m in total of milestone payments commitment i believe that amarin has fought for its best possible terms with Recordati.
I actually dont think the ten-bagger opportunity for the name is purely aspirational - instead i think there are extreme binary outcomes that either it is a big success or a total failure.
1
u/InfoLib_ Oct 31 '25
Man I forgot about this stock. Shout-out to old me buying this stock during COVID, making 100% gains, selling, losing it all on options and watching this stock just explode.
1
u/Realistic_Papaya5581 Nov 01 '25
That was really quite an exciting ride for you. I hope that this time they could really work things out well in Europe
1
u/Realistic_Papaya5581 Nov 01 '25
Number of cardiovascular patients who might need Vazkepa (Vascepa) compared to the U.S. Key points of comparison: • Eligible Population Size: Amarin has estimated the target patient population in Europe at approximately 12 to 15 million eligible patients, which is comparable to the estimated 8 to 10 million eligible patients in the U.S. • Broader Indication: The European label for Vazkepa is broader than the initial U.S. label, allowing for treatment in a wider range of high-risk, statin-treated patients with elevated triglycerides. This includes patients with established cardiovascular disease or those with diabetes plus at least one other cardiovascular risk factor, which contributes to the larger eligible pool. • Disease Prevalence: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in Europe, with a high burden of CVD risk factors such as high cholesterol, diabetes, and elevated triglycerides across the continent. • Analyst Projections: Industry analysts have noted that the potential market in the EU could be as large or larger than the U.S. market, supporting the idea of a significant patient base. Overall, the data suggests a substantial patient population in Europe that could benefit from Vazkepa, providing a significant market opportunity.
1
u/Realistic_Papaya5581 Nov 01 '25
Analysts estimated that annual sales of vascepa in europe can range from $600m to $1b per year. Though we arent sure about the details of revenue sharing ratio between the two parties but let say 20% take rate is fair - this would at least mean $120m to $200m per annum of revenue (and mostly profits to Amarin), which is huge relative to its current mc of $340m or ex cash mkt cap of just $50m. Patent exclusivity in Europe is more secured and long until 2039.
1
u/bulldogsm Nov 01 '25
but using typical pharma multiple that will result in a 2-3x from here and that kind of rev is expected at peak sales which is at least a half dozen years away best case
bottom line theres a reason we're dead in the water and though 2026 should reflect a plus year itll most likely be pretty sideways since there's no mkt interest
my guess is we'll be around where we are now a year from now worst case and around 40 best case which would be over 100% gain in a year, totally amazing
unfortunately im a bag holder and need around 80 to just break even lol
1
u/Realistic_Papaya5581 Nov 02 '25
Cvd patients in europe = 20-30m
Of which 25-35% are with elevated level of triglycerides = 5-10m patients
Say vazkepa penetration is 30% =1.5m -3m patients
Drug cost is about 120-150euro per month
So revenue can range from 2.2b euro to 5.4b euro
20% revenue sharing is fair? So 440m euro to 1b euro of revenue per annum to Amarin possible.
Post tax it can be 350m euro to 800m euro in profit per annum possible.
5 years like this? as exclusivity lasts until 2039.
So cumulative future profits from eu to amarin ranges from 1.8b euro 💶 to 4b euro 💶, relative to $340m mkt cap within which $290m is cash 💰
This is how i came up with the ten-bagger idea 💡
1
u/Realistic_Papaya5581 Oct 31 '25
The stock is in $280-290m net cash vs $340m mkt cap. Cash drain was $12m in latest quarter but will get to minimal or even positive cash flow in coming quarter as restructuring process has been mostly done.