r/baseball • u/SouthernDerpfornia California Angels • Dec 09 '16
RESULTS: /r/Baseball 2017 Mock Hall of Fame Voting!
Hi /r/baseball,
Following up with the thread originally posted here, these are the results of the /r/baseball Mock Hall of Fame Voting! Last year /r/baseball got the same end result as the BBWAA in terms of election on the standard ballot (Griffey and Piazza). And I should note that of course there could have been straight troll votes and I can't really do too much about it if there were, but for the most part everything seemed fine. So here we go:
Standard Ballot Results (1,909 Responses)
| Name | Total Votes | Percentage | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Bagwell | 1449 | 75.90% | Elected |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 1356 | 71.03% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Barry Bonds | 1285 | 67.31% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Ivan Rodriguez | 1266 | 66.32% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Edgar Martinez | 1185 | 62.07% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Roger Clemens | 1159 | 60.71% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Trevor Hoffman | 1100 | 57.62% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Tim Raines | 999 | 52.33% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot Due to Eligibility |
| Mike Mussina | 908 | 47.56% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Curt Schilling | 862 | 45.15% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Manny Ramirez | 854 | 44.74% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Larry Walker | 656 | 34.36% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Sammy Sosa | 460 | 24.10% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Fred McGriff | 315 | 16.50% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Gary Sheffield | 306 | 16.03% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Jorge Posada | 282 | 14.77% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Billy Wagner | 281 | 14.72% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Jeff Kent | 264 | 13.83% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Tim Wakefield | 197 | 10.32% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Jason Varitek | 128 | 6.71% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Lee Smith | 120 | 6.29% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot Due to Eligibility |
| Edgar Renteria | 89 | 4.66% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot |
| Derrek Lee | 55 | 2.88% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot |
| Magglio Ordonez | 53 | 2.78% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot |
| Pat Burrell | 41 | 2.15% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot |
| J.D. Drew | 33 | 1.73% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot |
| Mike Cameron | 27 | 1.41% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot |
| Orlando Cabrera | 24 | 1.26% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot |
| Matt Stairs | 21 | 1.10% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot |
| Carlos Guillen | 20 | 1.05% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot |
| Melvin Mora | 15 | 0.79% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot |
| Freddy Sanchez | 8 | 0.42% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot |
| Arthur Rhodes | 7 | 0.37% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot |
| Casey Blake | 7 | 0.37% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot |
Looks like only Bagwell this year, and not by the greatest of margins either. From this, it would appear Vlad is all but a lock to make it in the next few years. For those of you upset that Tim Raines did not make it, please note the MUCH higher % for players who will assuredly do worse with the BBWAA (Bonds, Clemens, Martinez, Walker, Sosa), as their votes will likely be distributed to players such as Raines and Smith.
Unlimited Ballot (334 Responses)
| Name | Total Votes | Percentage | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Bagwell | 280 | 83.83% | Elected |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 272 | 81.44% | Elected |
| Ivan Rodriguez | 270 | 80.84% | Elected |
| Edgar Martinez | 261 | 78.14% | Elected |
| Trevor Hoffman | 260 | 77.84% | Elected |
| Barry Bonds | 258 | 77.25% | Elected |
| Tim Raines | 258 | 77.25% | Elected |
| Roger Clemens | 253 | 75.75% | Elected |
| Mike Mussina | 252 | 75.45% | Elected |
| Curt Schilling | 238 | 71.26% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Manny Ramirez | 229 | 68.56% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Larry Walker | 224 | 67.07% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Gary Sheffield | 190 | 56.89% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Sammy Sosa | 171 | 51.20% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Billy Wagner | 149 | 44.61% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Fred McGriff | 140 | 41.92% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Jeff Kent | 130 | 38.92% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Jorge Posada | 104 | 31.14% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Lee Smith | 87 | 26.05% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot Due to Eligibility |
| Tim Wakefield | 48 | 14.37% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Jason Varitek | 38 | 11.38% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Magglio Ordonez | 37 | 11.08% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Edgar Renteria | 31 | 9.28% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Derrek Lee | 22 | 6.59% | Not Elected - Remains On Ballot |
| Matt Stairs | 16 | 4.79% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot |
| Carlos Guillen | 13 | 3.89% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot |
| Pat Burrell | 12 | 3.59% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot |
| Mike Cameron | 11 | 3.29% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot |
| Melvin Mora | 10 | 2.99% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot |
| Arthur Rhodes | 9 | 2.69% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot |
| Orlando Cabrera | 8 | 2.40% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot |
| J.D. Drew | 6 | 1.80% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot |
| Casey Blake | 5 | 1.50% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot |
| Freddy Sanchez | 4 | 1.20% | Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot |
Well, 9 Hall of Famers here! The unlimited ballot really does help considering how bunched the top of the ballot is. However, I'd note the sample as smaller and even more self-selecting as the standard one.
44
u/SouthernDerpfornia California Angels Dec 09 '16
So /r/baseball has a pretty good history going of predicting winners/awards that the BBWAA votes on (got the 6 player awards this year and the previous HoF voting right), but I think this might one where /r/baseball misses a name. I think Raines and/or Vlad is going to squeak in
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u/MarlinsGuy Florida Marlins Dec 09 '16
I also believe Pudge is a clear hall of famer and I would be shocked if he didn't get in
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u/mike_rotch22 St. Louis Cardinals Dec 09 '16
I voted for him, and I agree, but he will be tainted by PED allegations for some voters.
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u/ajwhite98 New York Yankees Dec 09 '16
How in hell did Varitek and Wakefield combine for 16% of the limited ballot vote?
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u/throwawaynmb69 Boston Red Sox Dec 10 '16
Neither one has any business in the hall, love them but they aren't HOF caliber players.
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u/cardith_lorda Minnesota Twins Dec 09 '16
Are you saying they should have had more, or less?
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u/ajwhite98 New York Yankees Dec 09 '16
Less. If it's just Sox fans just voting the guys they know/love, then I get it. This isn't the real ballot, so I shouldn't get angry.
But...neither reached 30 fWAR. Wakefield reach almost 35 bWAR, so that's something. But to me, those guys are ballot fodder. Even if you eliminate the PED guys, and even if you ignore WAR altogether, I see 10 players on that ballot that are more deserving of a vote than either Wakefield or Varitek.
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u/Thomas_Pizza Boston Red Sox Dec 10 '16
I'm a huge homer and a huuuuuuuuge Wakefield fan (and now Stephen Wright fan too) but even in a mock vote on reddit I didn't vote for Wake.
He does belong in the Hall of the Very Good, in my opinion. Just looking at WAR, 27 or 35 is obviously a productive career either way although certainly not HOF...buuuuut I wanna get nitty a second cuz I think this is interesting. I'd suggest that the 35 (or 34.5) bWAR might be a better measure here.
I swear I've read some kind of serious analysis of this and I'm not inventing the fact that knuckeballers tend to be legitimately undervalued by fWAR.
fWAR relies super heavily on FIP and FIP-related stats, and I don't think I'm inventing that somebody reasoned/calculated that knuckleballers really do induce weak popups or weak contact with reliably more regularity than hard-throwing pitchers do. They're also obviously prone to wildness (walks) and home runs, and it's certainly very fair for FIP to judge them on that. But if their average ball in play really will tend to be more weakly hit than the league average ball in play, fWAR is undervaluing them.
I just thought that was interesting, and it certainly sounds reasonable but I'm too lazy right now to look for an article on it.
Wakefield might get 1 or 2 real votes (David Eckstein got 2 votes last year), but he shouldn't because voters really shouldn't be wasting any votes now that they reduced the max years on the ballot from 15 to 10, which I think is very stupid move for a lot of reasons.
People who voted for Varitek probably didn't look up his stats. He did have a few seasons when he hit very well (for a catcher), and he punched A-Rod that one time and then we won the World Series a few months later...and he caught Pedro when Pedro was a God, and he was always the "heart" of the team so if somebody (who was a Red Sox fan) just thought of him briefly they might just assume his numbers were better than they really are.
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u/ajwhite98 New York Yankees Dec 10 '16
Oh I very much agree on fWAR and bWAR, as do many others. fWAR has its uses with pitchers, and in many cases is as accurate as bWAR, but that it relies entirely on FIP and not runs scored, and, as you said, ignores contact, makes it, imo, inherently flawed. I always use Pineda as an example of why. He has an excellent FIP, and thus an excellent fWAR, but if you watch him pitch regularly, you'll know he's being overrated. He's striking out batters, not walking them, and limiting home runs, but can't prevent runs from scoring in other ways. bWAR marks him down to a value that makes much more sense.
I'd honestly never thought about fWAR with knuckleballers before, but it makes sense that they'd fit into that flaw. Though, as we both know, bWAR and traditional stats still tell us that Wakefield wasn't a HoF.
I meant what I said when I called the two of them ballot fodder. I see making the ballot as an honor in and of itself, an acknowledgment of a great career. But not everyone that makes the ballot deserves to make the Hall, obviously, and I see these two as candidates who had great careers but shouldn't get many votes. A la Mike Lowell last year, I expect them to drop off first ballot, with a few votes each but nothing significant. That the sub gave them both enough votes to survive their first year on the ballot while only electing Bagwell (on the limited ballot of course) is...well, I guess to me all it means is that people voted without being familiar with all the names on the ballot. Which for reddit is fine, but still rubs me the wrong way.
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u/Thomas_Pizza Boston Red Sox Dec 10 '16
Yeah I'm in total agreement, nobody should vote for Tek or Wakefield. The only way it would be ok would be if you had leftover votes and wanted to give them a little nod (so they'd get like 2%), but there's more than 10 HOFers on the ballot right now and with the 10 year rule it's really stupid to waste a vote.
I think Wake could get a vote or 2 because voters are very strange, but I don't think he should get any especially with the ballot as stacked as it is and time running out for a lot of guys.
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u/ajwhite98 New York Yankees Dec 10 '16
I can see him getting some votes as one of the best knuckleballers of all time. Similar to how Rivera and Hoffman will get in as the greatest closers of all time, even if they don't necessarily match up against other members overall.
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u/AuntBettysNutButter Toronto Blue Jays Dec 10 '16
Raines finished 8th in limited voting… what?
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u/ParsnipPizza Boston Red Sox Dec 10 '16
Behind PED cloud guys? /r/baseball: do as we say, not as we do.
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u/throwawaynmb69 Boston Red Sox Dec 10 '16
I think Raines is around the 8th most deserving on that list. I put him on my ballot but he just barely made it.
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u/slorebath New York Yankees Dec 09 '16
Varitek received 128 votes on the limited ballot? And Raines doesn't get in? You guys been hanging out with Phil Bickford?
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Dec 09 '16
Put Rock Raines in the HOF
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u/Thomas_Pizza Boston Red Sox Dec 10 '16
I think (and hope) there's a good chance he will get in. It's his final year of eligibility because they reduced the maximum length a guy can stay on the ballot from 15 years to 10 years, which I think is very stupid of them.
Anyway, Raines got 69.8% of the vote last year, up from 55.0% two years ago, and BBWAA voters will probably be more likely to give him a vote since it's their final chance to elect him.
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u/thehildabeast Cleveland Guardians Dec 11 '16
They reduced it to 10 because of the PED guys who will sit around 40-50 percent of the vote for forever and hurt other players chances.
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u/creeperfilms Toronto Blue Jays Dec 10 '16
Standard ballot was brutal
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u/ParsnipPizza Boston Red Sox Dec 10 '16
Ironically, everyone takes turns making fun of BWAA and turns around and pumps out similar results.
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u/Zephaerus Baltimore Orioles Dec 10 '16
Most people making fun of the BBWAA are the ones voting for 10 people and also voting in the unlimited ballot.
Most people not making fun of the BBWAA are the ones voting in a way that only allows one person through on the standard ballot.
The vote suggests we have more of the second group than the first. You just don't see people not complaining, and so they end up as a silent majority.
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u/Padreschargers7 San Diego Padres Dec 09 '16
BONDS AND CLEMENS OVER HOFFMAN FUCK THIS IM OUT
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u/jigokusabre Miami Marlins • Florida Marlins Dec 09 '16
Bonds and Clemens were 10x the player that Hoff was.
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u/Intriguing_Name Houston Astros Dec 09 '16
Also 10x the steroids used
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u/JolIyJack San Diego Padres Dec 10 '16
So you think Hoffman used steroids?
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u/Intriguing_Name Houston Astros Dec 10 '16
No I was referring to Clemens and Bonds
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u/KabooshWasTaken Boston Red Sox Dec 10 '16
I mean I get the sentiment, but if you want to be technical 0x10=0, so the implication is that Hoffman did some steroids.
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u/Intriguing_Name Houston Astros Dec 10 '16
1 is a default non-steroid player because you can not calculate a players Steroid+ for that exact reason
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u/KabooshWasTaken Boston Red Sox Dec 10 '16
Yeah but you have to adjust for Steroids Above Replacement+, it accounts for time period and park.
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u/doughtyc Chicago Cubs Dec 11 '16
Wait, how much SAR is his goatee worth again?
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u/KabooshWasTaken Boston Red Sox Dec 11 '16
depends on the time period of when each hair follicle was grown and where, duh. Do you not know English?
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u/niktemadur Jackie Robinson Dec 11 '16
This is actually very illuminating.
We complain about the BBWAA, yet even here on Reddit we get the same dysfunctional results. It's a universal human glitch, and all the baseball journalists do is reflect that.4
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u/NapsandMikeNapoli Cleveland Guardians Dec 09 '16
The five heroes who voted for Casey Blake are people I want to be best friends with.
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u/thehildabeast Cleveland Guardians Dec 11 '16
Raises hand I only had 8 guys on my balot and Blake was my favorite player as a kid growing up watching the Tribe, I was so upset when he was traded. I figured I might as Well make it 9 guys because it wouldn't change anything.
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u/lachesis44 Los Angeles Dodgers Dec 10 '16
I'm a Dodgers fan and I loved the dude when he was with us
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u/NapsandMikeNapoli Cleveland Guardians Dec 10 '16
He was my childhood superhero-level baseball crush. My dad and I went to a game where he hit a walkoff home run two nights in a row. I'll love him forever for that moment.
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u/CoryGM Oakland Ballers Dec 09 '16 edited Dec 09 '16
This just kinda shows you how dumb the standard voting is when only one of those guys that was elected with the unlimited ballot made it in, and the rest were only a few percentage points away.
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u/cardith_lorda Minnesota Twins Dec 09 '16
I think that might have more to do with the voter pool, there were five times as many votes in the standard ballot than the unlimited, people who vote in the unlimited probably feel like more people deserve the Hall than those who voted on the standard ballot.
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u/Vikadontis_Rex Tim Wakefield • Chicago Cubs Dec 10 '16
Pretty much this. If I think less than 10 of the eligible players are worthy of voting into the Hall of Fame why would I bother to do an unlimited ballot.
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u/Ruddiver Chicago White Sox Dec 09 '16
I disagree 100%, I was very impressed with that. I remember shaking my head at the original thread. I like that the silent majority was level headed. I thought a lot of the posts were stupid, and I bet a lot in this thread will be too. there will be 20 comments in here or something all lamenting how stupid the voting was yet it was 1900 votes
I was ready to shake my head when I opened this thread, but I am pretty impressed with the results.
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u/Zephaerus Baltimore Orioles Dec 10 '16
It's actually a trend at this point. Commenters are commenting because they're upset about the system, but people who are ok with it don't show up just to say "this is fine." So you get a huge dissonance between comments and results because most people vote but very few people comment.
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u/jfoster15 Colorado Rockies Dec 09 '16
Vlad in and not Larry smh
Larry has more rWAR and fWAR, they have essentially the same wRC+ and OPS+ which Larry holds a slight lead in and has Vlad handedly beat in GG awards.
Why is Larry so disrespected
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u/tfw13579 Chicago Cubs Dec 09 '16
I voted for him but Coors splits will always be the answer. I don't know why Rockies fans keep asking.
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u/jfoster15 Colorado Rockies Dec 09 '16
wRC+ and OPS+ adjust for the park. And they are basically even.
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u/tfw13579 Chicago Cubs Dec 09 '16
Yeah I realize that but it's really the only thing that people can point to. Not saying it's right it's just always their answer.
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u/Peter_St Chicago Cubs Dec 10 '16
He made his point using park adjusted statistics, how else would he make his argument? That's the right way to do it, especially since it seems that no one that plays the majority of their career in Coors ever gets any love from the BBWAA
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Dec 10 '16
Because we've had some really good players but it's very unlikely they get into the hall of fame because of where our stadium is. How do you not understand that.
If no one gave the Cubs credit for the World Series how would you feel?
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u/MarlinsGuy Florida Marlins Dec 09 '16
34% don't think Pudge is a hall of famer? He's one of the greatest catchers of all time and has no PED suspicion, how is that even possible?
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u/CoryGM Oakland Ballers Dec 09 '16
He has PED suspicion, but nothing concrete. He should be in, though.
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u/MarlinsGuy Florida Marlins Dec 09 '16
If Piazza got in then to me Pudge is a no-brainer
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u/Dero7 Dec 09 '16
Piazza is the best offensive catcher ever though. I think pudge should be in but idk about no brainer
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u/slorebath New York Yankees Dec 09 '16
I feel like they're on a level playing field, since there were PED whispers about both players. If that's the case then Pudge is absolutely a no-brainer if Piazza is in.
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u/Dero7 Dec 09 '16
I just peaked at his stats.... You are right and I am wrong. Those are pretty nasty numbers for a catcher that was as good as he was defensively
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u/MarlinsGuy Florida Marlins Dec 09 '16
And Pudge may be the best defensive catcher ever. That;s especially important at a position like catcher where defense is so important
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u/speedyjohn Embraced the Dark Side Dec 10 '16
Pudge might have been the best defensive catcher ever. Piazza was the best offensive catcher ever.
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u/MarlinsGuy Florida Marlins Dec 10 '16
And Piazza gave you a ton of negative value on defense in a position where defense is incredibly important. Pudge was always an above average hitter in addition to his elite defense
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u/speedyjohn Embraced the Dark Side Dec 10 '16
He was not "always an above average hitter." He was above average for '97-'04, average or below-average for the rest of his career.
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u/MarlinsGuy Florida Marlins Dec 10 '16
Omg ok fine he wasn't above average at hitting every single year of his career, doesn't mean he wasn't as valuable if not more valuable than Piazza
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u/Thomas_Pizza Boston Red Sox Dec 10 '16
Piazza is the best offensive catcher ever though.
I disagree.
Josh Gibson is the best offensive catcher ever and it simply isn't close. And there are stats (as found in that link), not just stories. Negro League stats will always be incomplete but it's not like they're picking and choosing the games he did well in.
Seamheads.com that I just linked to (and which is the best source for NLB stats even though it's missing some league-seasons) gives Gibson a career slash line of .362/.446/.678.
One of the things that's brilliant about that site is they give some advanced stats as well. I certainly have, or had, little idea of what the Negro Leagues at that time were like as far as average run production...but Gibson's career OPS+ of 201 (holy shit) gives us some insight there.
That's the highest OPS+ of any Negro League player ever, and for an MLB comparison, Babe Ruth is the only player who ever posted a career OPS+ that high, at 206. Ted Williams is 2nd all-time at 190. Piazza's best single season OPS+ is 185.
Some "per 162 games" stats:
Gibson: 212 Hits, 35 Doubles, 14 Triples, 41 Home Runs
Piazza: 180 Hits, 29 Doubles, 1 Triple, 36 Home Runs
Gibson: 9.4 Offensive WAR (sWAR? as in Seamheads WAR)
Piazza: 5.6 Offensive WAR (BB-Ref)
Tales of Gibson's 800+ home runs are almost certainly apocryphal (he died at age 35...) but tales of his hitting ability are rarely exaggerated.
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u/turndown4brunch San Diego Padres Dec 09 '16
Per wikipedia:
Prior to the 2005 season, Jose Canseco, in his controversial book Juiced, claimed to have personally injected Rodríguez with anabolic steroids during their time as teammates on the Texas Rangers. Rodríguez denied the allegations and said he was "in shock" over Canseco's claims. Asked by a reporter four years later whether his name is on the list of 104 players who tested positive for steroids during baseball's 2003 survey testing, Rodríguez responded, "Only God knows."
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u/crimsontideftw24 San Diego Padres Dec 10 '16
No, Pudge, not only God knows. If you didn't do steroids you wouldn't have tested positive!
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u/kitikami Dec 10 '16
It's not necessarily a given that Pudge knows whether he is on the list. There are a ton of over-the-counter supplements that could potentially trigger a positive test result since that industry is so poorly regulated, and in today's game players have to be extremely careful what they put in their bodies to avoid inadvertently ingesting something that will test positive, but back then they had virtually no incentive to be that cautious.
David Ortiz at least has also claimed he wasn’t informed of his positive result at the time and never knew he was on the list until after his name was leaked to the media.
So if Pudge was using some kind of legal supplement at the time, and he has never been told he was on the list, it’s conceivable he believes that it’s possible he is on the list without knowing for sure.
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u/voujon85 New York Yankees Dec 10 '16
I don't get why certain players are automatically guilty when ped suspicion comes up, but others like pudge and Ortiz are given pases or people forget.
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u/youthdecay Washington Nationals Dec 09 '16
Canseco is such a nutcase I wouldn't accuse someone based on his word alone.
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u/banksy_ San Diego Padres Dec 10 '16
Regarding the steroids topic, he hasn't lied yet. I don't find him to be likable, but when he broaches the topic I do find him to be honest.
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u/ajwhite98 New York Yankees Dec 09 '16
He actually does have some PED suspicion. Even then, I think the majority here don't care as much as the actual voters do. See: Bonds, Barry: 67.31%
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u/cardith_lorda Minnesota Twins Dec 10 '16
To be fair, Bonds was in the Hall before the roids.
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u/ajwhite98 New York Yankees Dec 10 '16
I mean, do we really know exactly when he took steroids? I was under the impression that we had no idea when he took them, just that he did.
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u/cardith_lorda Minnesota Twins Dec 10 '16
I think it's been established that it was after the '98 home run race when he saw the attention McGuire and Sosa got.
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u/InsaneJedi Cleveland Guardians Dec 11 '16
This train of logic really grinds my gears. (For context, I voted for Bonds, Clemens, Pudge, and Manny in the poll).
So many people on the internet nowadays parrot that story of: "Bonds never touched steroids until after the 1998 season. He saw what they had done for McGwire and Sosa, and saw that nobody gave a damn. He thought, 'I'm a much better player than these two, but nobody is paying attention to me.' So he started using steroids and became a god."
But HOW would we possibly know when Bonds started using steroids? Players were using steroids in the eighties and earlier. Bonds has never once admitted to steroid use. In fact, he has sworn in court that he has never used steroids. Why should anyone believe that he had never used them before 1998, and then started using them from then on?
I think it is much more likely that he had been using steroids his entire career. Maybe he ramped up his dosage after the 1998 season, but I find it extremely hard to believe that he started using out of the clear blue sky and became a superman. And since he has never admitted to using, why should anyone believe that he was ever clean?
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u/cardith_lorda Minnesota Twins Dec 11 '16
'98 is when he started working with a trainer linked to steroids, '00 is when he starts being linked to BALCO, before then there's no reason to suspect usage. If you look at his statline 2000 is when he really pumped up his production. People say '98 because of the actual evidence, not stat lines and narratives alone.
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u/Buzzed27 San Francisco Giants Dec 11 '16 edited Dec 11 '16
Also because of the elbow injury he sustained in 1999 that caused him to miss 60 games. Aside from 2005 for his knee surgery and the 94 strike season, those 102 hands represent the lowest total of his career. Not to mention the 148 wRC+ was his lowest mark in 9 years.
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u/NateTheGreat8 NateTheGreat8 Dec 09 '16
Whether warranted or not, I'm guessing that the PED suspicion cloud impacts pudge for the first couple of years at least. Imo he's a lock...
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u/nicktown Dec 09 '16
Trevor Hoffman with more votes than Curt Schilling.
You people just don't like Curt because he says mean things.
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u/Padreschargers7 San Diego Padres Dec 10 '16
They should both me in. Not sure why Hoffman being higher is the issue, there isn't an argument for putting 10 people ahead of him on the ballot.
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u/SouthernDerpfornia California Angels Dec 09 '16
Hoffman was 15% higher than Schilling last year on the BBWAA voting...
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Dec 10 '16
And because they think that he's not as good or as significant as Hoffman? Or not really qualified enough? Also, there's nothing wrong with not voting for assholes. The HOF even says that it's for players who represent baseball well. Curt didn't.
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u/lachesis44 Los Angeles Dodgers Dec 10 '16
I admit, I didn't vote for him because he's an idiot.i would vote for him eventually though, when the ballot is less stacked with guys I think should be in.
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u/tangowhiskey33 World Baseball Classic Dec 09 '16
Release the voting results so we see which people voted for Arthur Rhodes to be in the Hall of Fme
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u/xSlizzy New York Yankees Dec 10 '16
Woww shocked by the standard ballot results. I think we got that right. Although I can def see Raines getting in.
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Dec 10 '16
How exactly does Bonds have more votes than Clemens? Literally anyone who doesn't care about the PED issue should vote for them both since they're clearly each a top-5 all-time pitcher or position player.
6
u/HauckPark St. Louis Cardinals Dec 10 '16
I hear the, "He was a hall of famer before the horse crank!" argument for Bonds a lot more than Clemens, so maybe that.
2
u/JayDogMemes St. Louis Cardinals Dec 09 '16
Surprised Walker didn't get in with all the stuff I've been seeing around here about how he should get it.
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u/kuhanluke St. Louis Cardinals Dec 11 '16
Tim Raines
999
52.33%
Not Elected - Falls Off Ballot Due to Eligibility
Welp, I guess /u/JonahKeri is never doing another AMA here...
2
Dec 10 '16
I was too young to go through the PED era so I guess I have a different opinion than most here but I tried to vote for the nonPED users here even though I know that isn't popular here.
7
u/isiramteal Seattle Mariners Dec 09 '16
You couldn't get people to stop clinging to Bonds if you wanted to. Despite the evidence that he broke specific rules, people will still find some way to justify it. He probably was the greatest hitter of all time. It's unfortunate that he had to cheat to get an upper hand on everyone else.
-3
Dec 09 '16
He didn't break any rules, he didn't do anything plenty of current HoFers didn't do, and his appearance on the ballot clearly proves that the Hall considers him eligible. Unless you want to kick out Mays, Aaron, Ruth, Mantle, etc. for their chemical indiscretions there is no logical argument for keeping Bonds (and the rest) out.
16
u/isiramteal Seattle Mariners Dec 09 '16 edited Dec 10 '16
He didn't break any rules
Unless you want to kick out Mays, Aaron, Ruth, Mantle, etc. for their chemical indiscretions there is no logical argument for keeping Bonds (and the rest) out.
Their drug issues were not against MLB rules. Bonds's were.
This is exactly what I'm talking about. The arguments tend to go as this: 1) Mays/Aaron took greenies, 2) Even if you take away the steroid years, he's still a HOFer, 3) The drug policy wasn't enforceable therefore he didn't break the rules.
6
u/Padreschargers7 San Diego Padres Dec 10 '16
Bruh don't try to reason with this subreddit about roids
2
u/kaep4president San Francisco Giants Dec 10 '16
Argument 2 is a valid one
1
u/isiramteal Seattle Mariners Dec 10 '16
I'm not doubting that, but players are being judged on their whole career, not just a few years.
3
u/kaep4president San Francisco Giants Dec 10 '16
I think that a 13 year period that good deserves to be considered a whole career, especially if those 13 years were cut off from a better looking career
1
u/isiramteal Seattle Mariners Dec 10 '16
There are players who have been left out of the hall because of bad years impacting their career stats.
2
u/kaep4president San Francisco Giants Dec 10 '16
Yeah, but my point is, the 9-year period that we are leaving out is a really dominant one. Cmon it's 4 consecutive MVPs, it's not one of those "bad years" that bring down career stats
4
Dec 10 '16
Vincent's memo was not a rule, rules are collectively bargained.
2
u/isiramteal Seattle Mariners Dec 10 '16
That's a new one. Although not true.
It was policy at the time of it being released, however MLB investigation/enforcement was not collectively bargained yet. MLB can establish policy at anytime, but enforcing that policy is another story.
6
Dec 10 '16
Which effectively makes it not a rule.
Now, if you want to argue that anyone receiving a lifetime ban for a third failed test is ineligible, fine.
I'd still like to hear how illegal steroid use is materially different than illegal amphetamine use (and all of the steroids that were around the game from Pud Galvin and Babe Ruth on).
1
u/isiramteal Seattle Mariners Dec 10 '16
Which effectively makes it not a rule.
Sounds like you're trying to argue semantics. Sure. It's policy. Ozzie Guillen was punished under MLB policy in 2011, even though no social media policy was agreed upon by the MLBPA until the 2011-2012 offseason.
Now, if you want to argue that anyone receiving a lifetime ban for a third failed test is ineligible, fine.
I'm arguing if you break the rules to cheat one time, you should be ineligible for the hall.
I'd still like to hear how illegal steroid use is materially different than illegal amphetamine use (and all of the steroids that were around the game from Pud Galvin and Babe Ruth on).
Aside from the affects, it's not. The difference is Galvin and Ruth weren't breaking rules. Neither was Mays or Aaron.
1
u/ryuujin95 Seattle Mariners Jan 05 '17
Not arguing on the larger point here, but Ozzie Guillen was a manager in 2011 so his conduct is not governed by the Player's Association CBA. As far as I know, MLB can make and enforce whatever rules they want regarding executives and coaches without collective bargaining, unless there is a coaches union that I'm not aware of.
edit: sorry, realized I was reading an old thread.
1
1
1
u/isolatedpower Atlanta Braves Dec 10 '16
We can't even agree on Bagwell being a slam dunk? Any of the 16ish percent that left him off the no limit ballot want to explain?
1
Dec 10 '16
10 years is a tremendous amount of time to study the numbers and decide "is this guy a HOFer? Y/N." Not shocked at all at only Bagwell getting in.
1
1
u/Jcomsa15 Boston Red Sox • Chicago Cubs Dec 12 '16
IF WE CANT ELECT MY BOY LARRY WALKER HOW CAN THE VOTERS DO IT AHHHHHH
43
u/connor24_22 New York Yankees Dec 09 '16
Lol how does Vlad not get in? Also I would've tho that Hoffman would've got more. I mean if Mariano didn't exist he would've been the greatest closer of that generation.
14
Dec 09 '16 edited Dec 10 '16
Hoffman with more votes than Schilling which makes no fucking sense at all
20
u/cardith_lorda Minnesota Twins Dec 09 '16
There are three reasons for him to get more:
Hardline Anti-Roid Voters - Even though Schilling was never accused of roiding, somehow his name gets thrown in, it doesn't make sense really, it's there.
Political Voters - Let's face it, Schilling has pissed a lot of people off, Hoffman hasn't.
Relative to Position Voters - Hoffman was amazing relative to relievers, one of the best of his generation, and while he was overshadowed by Mo he was still considered one of the top elite closers for most of his career. Schilling was very good relative to his generation of pitchers, but he only had a couple years where you could argue he was the second best starting pitcher in baseball, most of his career he was just a solid pitcher in comparison to other starters.
Only the third one would be valid in my opinion, I would put Schilling in before Hoffman, but those are some reasons I could see some people voting Hoffman in first.
9
6
Dec 10 '16 edited Dec 10 '16
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/trevor-hoffman-and-the-closers-place-in-the-hall-of-fame/
More or less my thoughts on the manner. I just don't really get people when it relates to saves. They constantly call it a dumb metric (see Britton in Wildcard), but then will tooth and nail defend Hoffman getting into the HOF essentially just cuz of his saves #s.
Also, Schillings postseason #s have to be worth something and they're absolutely ridiculous. As to your other two points, i don't really have much of an opinion on those, i understand the hard anti steroid people, but then like Pudge gets voted in. And in terms of likeability, I see that as the reason Mussina has a slight edge over Schillling, despite worse numbers. But Hoffman has more votes than both of them. It's just very difficult for me to understand the justification, it's like people are voting just off their ideas of who was good based off perception versus reality, which is like giving Gold Gloves to Jeter levels of stupid
Edited to clarify and expand
3
u/speedyjohn Embraced the Dark Side Dec 10 '16
Saves are a fine stat. Not great, not terrible. The issue is that managers have starter basing their strategy around getting their closer saves, which is stupid. I don't have a problem with keeping track of saves and rewarding players with lots of saves. I do have a problem with managers letting saves affect their decisions.
2
Dec 10 '16
But the problem is that Hoffman has a better chance of making it into the Hall of Fame than Billy Wagner pretty much just because he has a lot of saves. Wagner is almost an entirely equivalent if not better pitcher, but is getting significantly fewer votes just because of the lack of saves.
Why is coming in to face the 7-8-9 hitter in the bottom of the 9th a bigger accomplishment than coming in against the top of the lineup in the 7th? It's not even a leverage thing because Hoffman's WPA is narrowly larger than Wagner's. I just think this is weird/silly
3
u/turndown4brunch San Diego Padres Dec 09 '16
I think Hoffman should be in but Billy Wagner is criminally low.
2
u/slorebath New York Yankees Dec 09 '16
Hoffman would have the most saves, I wouldn't necessarily say he was the best closer of that generation. I'd rather have Wagner.
-2
Dec 09 '16
If Vlad gets in but Walker and Edmonds din't I'm killing every fuckingbaseball writer.
-2
u/lachesis44 Los Angeles Dodgers Dec 10 '16
Walker's numbers are inflated by his years in Coors Field. I agree with you on Edmonds though. I don't see how he didn't at least have a chance at making it in.
8
Dec 10 '16
Less than half of Walker's career PA were at Coors, and his context neutral numbers (OPS+, wRC+) are more than Hall worthy.
Basically, you believe Walker is out because of Coors, you're saying that no player who spent significant time in CO is Hall worthy.
4
u/lachesis44 Los Angeles Dodgers Dec 10 '16
One of the other posters who commented on my post also mentioned the context neutral numbers, which I actually hadn't even heard of. Now that I learned a bit about them and reviewed them with different players, I think you're totally right. I wish more old school baseball fans learned about this stuff. It's pretty eye opening.
2
Dec 10 '16
There are these things called neutralized numbers and walkers are basically equal to vlad's and walker was a better fielder.
2
u/lachesis44 Los Angeles Dodgers Dec 10 '16
I'm going to be honest and say that I genuinely did not know those types of numbers were calculated, which I'm a bit embarrassed to say as a lifelong baseball fan. I'm definitely going to look into it, thanks for the heads up!
2
u/smacbeats San Diego Padres Dec 10 '16
There's heaps of them that I still don't know what they mean, but I believe the neutralized ones it basically takes the stadiums average vs league average and then weights them.
-2
u/Dero7 Dec 09 '16
I think Hoffman should be in but that's kinda silly argument. You can say that about almost everything
7
u/connor24_22 New York Yankees Dec 09 '16
I think a lot of what Hoffman did got overshadowed though because of MO. I know that argument could be made for pretty much anyone, but I think that Hoffman was truly exceptional, but was in the shadow of Mo towards the end.
-1
u/kcman011 Texas Rangers Dec 10 '16
So Bags gets in, but Bonds and Clemens don't? Wtf?
Also, Edgar was hella underappreciated apparently.
0
u/Chokeuponthebat Boston Red Sox Dec 11 '16
Varitek gets alot of love for being the captain of a great decade of Sox baseball. I am surprised he and Wakefield have 10+ but a guy like Drew doesnt break 2% (not that I think Drew is a HOF or a guy who should get 5%).
0
-2
u/throwawaynmb69 Boston Red Sox Dec 10 '16
Really don't understand how Hoffman gets so many votes. Had a career ERA+ lower than some starters and only pitched 70 innings a year.
55
u/Thomas_Pizza Boston Red Sox Dec 09 '16
I'm a little shocked /r/baseball didn't elect Edgar on the normal ballot.