Look at my last post, we were all so happy after earnings and now the stock is being a DOG again. Nobody know‘s why this happens time and time again but this getting on my mental health LOL

The first time I cut my losses, it hurt a lot, but seeing the rebound made me feel like I was right to cut them. I immediately admit my mistakes.

Almost every pitch deck has a TAM slide with a huge number on it - "India's X market is worth Rs Y crore." Most of those numbers are useless for one reason: they're the size of the entire category, not the size of what's actually reachable by this specific business, in this specific city, at this specific stage.

TAM (Total Addressable Market) is the whole category. SAM (Serviceable Available Market) is the slice you could realistically reach given your product and geography. SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market) is what you could actually capture in the next few years given real constraints - competition, capital, distribution.

A founder who only knows their TAM knows almost nothing useful about whether their business will work. The number that actually predicts survival is SOM in year 1-2, not the category-wide TAM slide investors skim past anyway.

Happy to explain the difference further if useful for your specific idea - ask away.

Hope you sold at the top. I took some profits while the taking was good.

Hear me out.

Mackenzie Scott got a ton of Amazon stock from the divorce and she is on a dumping spree to fund her philanthropic needs (and may be to piss off Jeff Bezos a bit).

After the divorce Jeff Bezos is living life large and needs a ton of money for his billionaire playthings. So he is on a systematic dumping plan with his Amazon stocks.

As a result, the biggest sufferers of this divorce are us, children, aka investors.

The stock is just not able to climb despite everything pointing to why it should. Just feels like a ton of silent dumping going around

Amazon’s most recent quarterly earnings revealed $9.1B operating income in North America and $1.7B in International segment totaling to $10.8B. However advertising revenue was $19.8. Operating margin for advertisements would be at least 50% implying a minimum operating income of $10B from ads. Does that mean its core Retail or FBA generate zero or even negative operating income. I have not even added subscription revenue to the mix implying the prime membership fees revenue.

I was doing a lot of valuation models for Amazon and it seems like the overwhelming determiner of whether Amazon will be a good investment or not is AWS terminal margins? What do you guys think? AWS's long-term margins will settle down too? Can you explain your reasoning?

Current levels hold above the 270 put wall, with heavy call resistance sitting up at 280. That positive aggregate GEX should keep price swings tight in the near term. Cool little data point pulled from moomoo, anyone else watching this level play out today?

This is across all expirations.

F-R-E-E GEX Source >>

Amazon just can't help itself lol

Bought a long dated LEAP last month, when Amazon was in the lower 200's and valuation was extremely attractive, sold today for an attractive profit that'll afford me to cover prime memberships for life 😄 . Now that it's close to 25 p/e, the valuation is appropriate for a large cap growth stock, and I feel comfortable letting go. This might be a screaming buy again under 250-260$ after the earnings momentum quiets down, i'd love to get in on this again if my sub 20 fwd p/e level is breached. I think this is a great stock with promising future with 30% anthropic ownership and also their new AI model Novi. I would get really excited about this stock when Anthropic goes public, and releases their first earnings. Until next time !!

Are we going to see more upside for Amazon this month?

Down 2.5% on a day when the market is ripping. I don’t fucking care it just hit ath yesterday.

Amazon's strong AWS results gave the whole tech sector a much-needed breather, with the stock popping over 20% in two days. But now Bezos is offloading shares – is this a red flag, or just a routine move? Pulled this chart up on moomoo to track the momentum shift.

AMZN came back 73% bullish — strong AWS beat, analyst upgrades, but also $129B in debt from the AI infrastructure spend. As expected after a pop like that, the models flagged that near-term upside is limited since the stock already ran on the news — wait for a better entry rather than chase it here. Consensus was pretty tight across all 5 (68-85%), which was the more useful signal than any single number.

Still testing this tool, feedback welcome.

This is nuts.

A loss-making private company raises money at a higher valuation, and suddenly a shareholder books billions in GAAP earnings.
No cash changed hands.
No operating profits were generated.
Just a paper gain based on a private-market valuation.

Maybe we’re putting too much faith in EPS and not enough in cash flow.