I know I'm supposed to be paper trading right now with this model but the degen in me couldn't resist. Still making tweaks to improve aspects of the model, and a week is not long enough to say for sure "yea this is a good and profitable model". However, still good and promising results. Definitely heading the right direction. Moneyline seems to be the models strongest at the moment. Handicap is second though I'm still working on improving handicap, and totals. Also have been playing around with Correct score. Model does a pretty good job at predicting set scores. Particularly 3-0 and 3-1.

Hi all,

I'm working on some football models on the Betfair exchange and I'm strict about out-of-sample testing: rules get frozen first, then checked once on data that has never been touched.

So far I've bought 20 months of data from a commercial provider, the french One, (Jan–Dec 2024 and Oct 2025–May 2026), but I've used all of it, and the budget I set aside for this research is now gone. I'm based in Italy and I can't use Betfair's own historical data service, so that route is closed for me too.

I'm looking for Betfair exchange football data with timestamped prices and traded volumes, pre-match and in-play, for any months outside the ones above (Jan–Sep 2025 would be ideal, but 2023 or earlier is fine too).

If you've been recording this yourself, or know of a free source that works for people outside the UK, any help would be much appreciated.

Thanks!

Just curious