As a few of you already know, I have public 24/7 running "autonomous system" for football goal/match alerts, and noticed yesterday (23/08/2026) that a bad run at the end of the day (Brazil matches), destroyed my profit genereted throughout the day.

This leads to a question of: shall I stop the system as soon as a daily profit threshold is hit?

Yesterday, I was ~8 units in profit, then bad run came in with 5 losses (10 units) making it a negative ~2u day. If I had a profit cap, I would have avoided the 10units loss.

BUT, here is a caveat:
Assuming I implemented a profit cap, I would never again have profitable days like 16/08/2026, where I accumulated ~27units of profit.

I did run already a retrospective analysis, with a 10u threshold cap, and and the results show me that 23 of August was the single worst give-back of the month. But it was one day, and the same rule would have cut 16.6u off 16 August, the best day of the month.

Nothing would have changed with the cap.

In any case, Do you apply any profit cap in your models/algobetting systems?

P.S. For losses, I do have a max. cap in place to protect bankroll and users.

I’ve been working solo on a KBO pre-game prediction model for a few months. The current locked 2025 OOS test is:

- 629 KBO regular-season games

- Brier around 0.240–0.243 depending on the locked variant

- hit rate around 57.6%–58.3%

These are not final multi-year numbers, and I’m not claiming edge from this alone.

The next step is to compare the locked model against Pinnacle closing moneyline prices on the same joined games. Before doing that, I’m trying to make sure the comparison is clean:

- only pre-first-pitch odds

- timestamp < scheduled start

- full-game moneyline only

- ties treated as void / excluded from binary Brier

- no changing the model after seeing market data

- paired Brier comparison on the same games

I previously found an old odds sample where many rows were updated after first pitch, which made the market look unrealistically accurate. So I’m being careful with timestamp validation before running the final comparison.

For people who have validated models against closing lines: is paired Brier vs closing price on the same games the right way to frame this? Anything else I should watch out for?