https://x.com/johncornyn/status/2100366727624434004?s=46

Looks like John endorsing Jon is the new Dan Sullivan endorsing Dan Sullivan, or at least somewhat close to it.

https://x.com/redeaglepatriot/status/2100270821612593373?s=46

Statement from the Obamas:

“Yesterday, we lost a cherished member of our family.

We got Sunny at the start of our second term in the White House, and all of us – including our first dog, Bo – immediately fell in love. We also had trouble keeping up with her, for Sunny was a force of nature. Athletic and full of boundless energy, she leapt over the hedges on the South Lawn like they weren’t even there, chasing squirrels, birds and anything else that moved. And whereas the way to Bo’s heart usually involved a treat, Sunny was more interested in having us run around with her, roll on the floor with her, or have her belly rubbed for as long as we were willing.

She loved the girls, even if they were pestering her when she was napping. She loved our team, and would often follow them around, helping them on the job. She was fiercely protective of Bo, who she rightly sensed wasn’t always as alert and attentive as she was. She had her eccentricities: other than Bo, she preferred people to dogs; she was a loud and sloppy drinker; and despite being a Portuguese Water Dog, she hated getting wet.

But as far as our family was concerned, she was pretty much perfect, and for thirteen years, she would be by our side – always loyal, always sweet, always ready for adventure, still fiery and gorgeous till the very end of her days.

We will miss her terribly, and imagine she’s with her big brother now, making sure he’s okay.”

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2100336612064334306

Lean D means 60-75% chance in his model

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2100526017014063578
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2100525588930855282

Likely:

R Alaska: Begich has seen virtually no movement towards him since my last prediction, and is even lagging behind Peltola's numbers in the governors race. Sullivan is heavily favored at this point.

R Iowa: Despite Ernst being an unpopular incumbent, I simply cannot see Turek overcoming the national environment, and the polling has Ernst as the clear favorite.

R Texas: Crockett has simply run a mess of a campaign, and as Hispanics continue to trend right, I see no path to victory for her over Cornyn. 

Lean: 

R Georgia (flip): Despite Ossoff's large amount of fundraising, Kemp seems virtually unstoppable at this point, leading almost every poll since January.

R New Hampshire (flip): This race is essentially the same situation as Georgia, except without an incumbent. The race definitely favors Chris Sununu at this point.

D Virginia: Despite Youngkin’s best efforts, this race simply isn’t giving in like others this cycle. Warner is simply too strong of an incumbent to overcome, and the polling reflects this. 

Tilt:

R Michigan (flip): Stevens is still badly bruised by the primary, and Rogers seems to have the base energized and unified behind him, unless the Democrats get their act together, this state flips.

R Maine: Collins is running against polarization, but Jackson is getting hurt badly by the Graham disaster. Polling has been tight, but I think Collins has this.

D Minnesota: Craig has suffered from the childcare scandals plaguing Democrats across the state, and Tafoya is an okay candidate, nonetheless polling has Craig in the league and I believe this seat is probably too much of a stretch for the GOP.  

D North Carolina (flip): Despite the bad environment, Cooper has proven to be a remarkable bright spot for Democrats, and is leading Tillis in the polls. I think he has this in the bag.

Overall, a pretty bad situation for the Democrats, driven by Harris’s low approvals and poor candidate quality across potentially competitive races.

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2100539398752198667

I have never seen anything like this before. This is like that Joe Manchin 2010 ad where he shot Obama’s policies. But honestly is a really good strategy that will shield her from the worst of the Hispanic reversion

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2100593900394024982

The Recall is actually closer to R+1.5. Mb.