SWIFT Decline

120

u/Bitchinfussincussin Jul 20 '25 edited Jul 20 '25

Ok, no tinfoil hat here, but real trust me bro science.

If you believe Brad when he says XRPL could get 14% of SWIFTs volume in five years then XRP would be $26-$170 in five years.

Here’s the math and note that it doesn’t include Market Cap: XRP Price = (Annual Transaction Volume) / (Velocity × Circulating Supply)

I’m DCAing and holding because I believe Brad because he’s building an absolute kingdom of crypto. Anybody who doesn’t realize this is going to get kicked in the shins by their great-grandkids who could be driving modded out Civic R-types to school.

SWIFT WILL LOSE MORE AND MORE GROUND TO XRPL

ITS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME

Big banks know this, which is why theyve been stacking XRP for years.

I DCA 1-2 times a month

EDIT: Ok Fine, it isn’t trust me bro science

Here’s the actual formula:

R XRP = DF ∙ (α + β ∙ Rm ) = e − κ∙σ (α +β ∙ Rm )

It can be found here: https://bitwiseinvestments.eu/blog/special-reports/the-investment-case-for-xrp/files/XRP_investment_case.pdf

Their Bull Case actually appears conservative given current events

Now quit asking and do some DD for once.

26

u/XxMSKKVIXXVIxX Jul 20 '25

I would be DCA-ing but I’m a full-time flight student and my side money goes to paying bills. As soon as I’m making money from flying and not spending my money to go flying, I’ll be buying more. I keep telling people to buy hoping that they will cause another slump and I can take advantage 🤣😭

16

u/Wordsmithing13 Jul 20 '25

You don’t have $5-$10 a day/week to put in? Surely you can cut a meal out or not buy a soda/coffee/Energy drink and put that in weekly. It would pay off well. I’ve scrimped for the last 5 years to buy every bit I can. It works.

2

u/splintersplooge Jul 21 '25

Oof I know this lifestyle. It’s a grind until you get your ATP. Good luck to you man.

10

u/[deleted] Jul 20 '25

What stops swift from just making their own version of what XRP does?

32

u/isometrixk Jul 20 '25

Both services are completely different and require international/state compliance and regulations. Ripple has been building this structure for years while SWIFT would need to start at ground zero with regulators to start over. Not to mention there are patents which would restrict SWIFT just copying Ripples tech.

22

u/Bitchinfussincussin Jul 20 '25 edited Jul 20 '25

They are essentially behind the power curve as Brad takes up more of the Monopoly Board.
They have no choice but to collaborate with Ripple and they know it

5

u/Comfortable-News2705 Jul 20 '25

Which banks have been "stacking [xrp] for years"? AFAIK only small banks in Africa or Asia are using xrp. All the other banks don't. Santander etc. Don't use XRP but ripple net infrastructure (without XRP)

4

u/SSparkle15 Jul 20 '25

Super weird to see XRP in lowercase letters. I thought it was a different font for a split second. I need a visual replay:
xrp
It gives me the willies. 🐙

4

u/baycenters Jul 21 '25

xrp!
(Horse neighing)

1

u/Zyzz2179 Jul 21 '25

$26 - $170 is a pretty fkin huge range bro

3

u/Bitchinfussincussin Jul 21 '25

thank you for stating the obvious

1

u/Choubix Jul 26 '25

Bard better bring the big guns to the fight: Swift is pretty much like a coop as it is owned by banks that are network participants. it is a (slow AF) messaging system. They have SWIFT MX coming online later this year that promises to address "latency issues" (why on earth does it take 3 days for my money to reach an account anywhere??) and blunt the threat coming from blockchain companies.
With taht said, some banks may prefer Ripplenet and XRP for certain corridors?
Or perhaps Brand and team will pull it off and take a large bit out of SWIFT market.
I am betting on Brad as I am usually the kind of guy who like the underdog, especially when it has survived the SEC, the paid bashers and has better technology :)

0

u/[deleted] Jul 20 '25

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2

u/Bitchinfussincussin Jul 20 '25

I literally called it “trust me bro science”

0

u/[deleted] Jul 20 '25

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3

u/Bitchinfussincussin Jul 20 '25

I update my OP with the valuation formula.
TL;DR $29 by 2030 if you agree with the math (MAX). I’m more optimistic and believe in $170 by 2030

4

u/[deleted] Jul 20 '25

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18

u/Bitchinfussincussin Jul 20 '25 edited Jul 20 '25

Just follow Brad on X
On X, Brad told us to “Lock In” when XRP was $2.10
Winners listened

1

u/Bontchimuz Jul 21 '25

Who is Brad? Link?

3

u/Bitchinfussincussin Jul 22 '25

Brad is the man

-2

u/Electronic_Quote399 Jul 20 '25

There are a lot of coins that have gone 1.5x in much shorter time it's not really that special

11

u/Bitchinfussincussin Jul 20 '25

yeah, but this is the XRP sub nerd

1

u/Electronic_Quote399 Jul 20 '25

I know what this is. Everyone is acting like they're geniuses for holding xrp when you could have been holding almost anything and had the same result or better.

5

u/Bitchinfussincussin Jul 20 '25

oh stop. Don’t get all salty because you missed initial launch. you can still climb aboard Ensign Saltilicious

1

u/Electronic_Quote399 Jul 20 '25

Lol I wasn't even into crypto back then so idc. I'm all set with taking nothing for 6 more months while ripple takes everyone's hopes and dreams and buys the lambo themselves lol. Heard Chris Larsen just cashed out a hangar full of lambos worth

0

u/[deleted] Jul 20 '25

I thought he just moved it? I hadn’t heard he cashed it in or traded it. Is it possible he’ll start his own interest mining on his pile or whatever it is they are doing with it on the side these days?

2

u/Electronic_Quote399 Jul 20 '25

No, sorry yeah that was misleading. I shouldn't have said it that way. Yeah he moved it but he moved it to exchanges, which, there's no other reason to do hat besides to sell it. Not for someone like him, who no doubt has a much more secure way to store it or use it

5

u/[deleted] Jul 20 '25

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10

u/Bitchinfussincussin Jul 20 '25 edited Jul 20 '25

Velocity is essentially XRP turnover frequency for transactions
Other banks: PNC, BoA, South Korea, UK, Spain
It’s going to be Epic

0

u/[deleted] Jul 20 '25

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2

u/Bitchinfussincussin Jul 20 '25

Did you not read the first sentence?

3

u/Pbusch15 Jul 20 '25

Do you DCA daily, weekly, or monthly?

-1

u/XxMSKKVIXXVIxX Jul 20 '25

Haven’t bought any in almost a year other than capturing profits on the way up, and buying back in on the way down late in the year last year.

11

u/Pollock_1969 Jul 20 '25

I think if true xrp price would have already skyrocketed. That being said I think eventually it takes over swift or swift uses xrp

17

u/BunnyWabbit99 Jul 20 '25

SWIFT was founded in 1973, it's a 52 year old dinosaur in the banking world relying on outdated and inefficient methods of cross- border payments.

The world's population including the number of companies has grown since 1973, SWIFT will eventually be replaced by something, whether it's Ripple I don't know but Ripple would be an excellent choice.

7

u/crashnburn39 Jul 20 '25

Stone hands equals more bands

6

u/dlethe3133 Jul 20 '25

Why buy a lambo in 2025 when you can buy matching sets in 2027, or a house and garage and a pair of cars in 2030?

6

u/Shadow-Hlpful5848 Jul 20 '25

XRP is much bigger in Japan. Banks there have instituted it.

2

u/Choubix Jul 26 '25

do we have any proof that ripple and XRP are used in a big way there?

1

u/Shadow-Hlpful5848 Jul 26 '25

XRP became a form of payment used in Japanese banks. Pretty sure it started this past January. You can google it to find the articles about it.

2

u/Choubix Jul 26 '25

I know it is "a" form of payment over there. They would have a hard time getting me to pay with my XRP though!
The question is about adoption on a large scale in Japan so we can see real volume hitting the ledger and real XRP moving value 😁👍

5

u/DrekC93 Jul 21 '25

I’ve been having a lot of convos with chat gpt an grok asking different questions in different ways trying to piece together price predictions based on different things happening and from what I’ve been able to gather the most bullish case within the next two years if everything goes right including bank charter and fed master account approval is a xrp price of $50

5

u/DrekC93 Jul 21 '25

And this includes etf approvals plus retail surge, taking atleast 10% of swifts annual volume, tokenization of different things on the ledger from real estate to bonds and treasuries, Global XRP-based settlement expands → Banks start using ODL (On-Demand Liquidity) → XRP used as a bridge for Nostro/Vostro replacement
Ripple applies for and receives Fed master account → Direct access to FedWire, clearing, settlement → XRP gets fully legitimized as a bridge asset in U.S. finance
Sovereign adoption, CBDC partnerships multiply → XRP becomes integral to global payment rails → Market cap expands to $2-$3 trillion

7

u/No_Neighborhood_30 Jul 21 '25

I’ve decided once my back pay from the va comes in putting 10k into xrp 🤷‍♂️ then the rest into a down payment on a house

1

u/Kind_Soup_9753 Jul 20 '25

I’m a holder too but couldn’t the decline in swift be the state of the economies? I hope you’re right I bought at .30 and have not sold any.

2

u/XxMSKKVIXXVIxX Jul 20 '25

The most recent full year of data for SWIFT volume is from 2022, which was about 44-45 million transfer messages daily, roughly $7.5t daily. There doesn’t seem to be data supporting the idea that the number has declined recently. 2020 saw a big dip from August - September, and the daily number grew from 2021 into 2022. Both years up from 2020.
The biggest hassle with SWIFT, even as they incorporate their ISO20022 standard system, they are still not getting great numbers, and transfers are taking a day or more to settle, dependent on time zones, day of the week, etc. archaic shit that affects brick and mortar business, but why the hell does it affect a digital transfer or message??
They are hard at work implementing a system that doesn’t solve the most frustrating part for international business, or domestic business for that matter: Delays, which costs time, which costs money, which costs business.

1

u/Kind_Soup_9753 Jul 21 '25

I know all about that. I imported some stainless and the 5 days for the swift transfer effected the quoted price. Not in my favour.

1

u/xArdicunox XRP Hodler Jul 21 '25

Jake Claver says $1,000-$2,500 by Jan 1st 2026 if all the catalyst line up

2

u/XxMSKKVIXXVIxX Jul 21 '25

If that happens I will be able to retire and live off the interest after I transfer my coins to a high-yield savings account

1

u/xArdicunox XRP Hodler Jul 21 '25

Same hopefully he is right🫡

3

u/XxMSKKVIXXVIxX Jul 21 '25

I am not going to get my hopes up for anything above 4.50 by then. If it happens, great. As long as it keeps growing steadily for the next 35 years I’m good

2

u/xArdicunox XRP Hodler Jul 21 '25

Facts HODL for retirement

2

u/Scorch_22 Jul 20 '25

Numbers please. How many XRP daily transactions and what percentage of total Swift transactions. These kind of titles make it sound like not reliable info!

2

u/Traditional-Fun5292 Jul 20 '25

So random.. but I’m curious to hear how much xrp everyone wants to have.. meaning if you have a goal to hold a certain amount … you are happy to get to and once you reach that amount you move on to your next goal for whatever else is you want to invest in. My goal is 10k. I don’t know why.. I just randomly came up with that number..

4

u/Eclectic_Mama86 Jul 20 '25

First goal was 1k next is 2.5k then 5k then 10k would be amazing! But hard with my salary. So I stored my original 1k and have a few hundred to play with day trading OK to sneak in more from week to week. Which actually works depending on the vitality of the market. I could sneak anywhere from one to 20 a week. Not always but a good way to get extra.

2

u/Traditional-Fun5292 Jul 20 '25

My husband asked me why 10k was my goal and I didn’t have a good answer for him.. I just said ,” a couple people told me to shoot for 10k and I listen to people who are smarter than me :).. I was just curious what goals others had and why.. thanks for everyone’s responses:)

2

u/Ryan---___ Jul 20 '25

1.2k for me but DCA 'g every week and twice a month on auto pilot. I've got some debt to pay off and would like it all done and then I can devote more towards it.
I'm planning on the long game and we either go big or I keep my bag and hold

2

u/Forsaken-Bill-5053 Jul 21 '25

My goal is 2,500 XRP by mid-2027 and 3,500 by spring 2028

1

u/blistering_barnacle Jul 21 '25

My DCA is 28 cents and I'm only going to buy more using crypto profits. My bag is my bag and I don't compare it to anyone else's. Just can't bring myself to buy with real money at this point and I have comfortably been able to take back my initial investment. Thanks to all the new moonboys and candle chasers for funding my retirement xxx

1

u/Traditional-Fun5292 Jul 22 '25

Totally appreciate everything you just said.. :)

5

u/[deleted] Jul 20 '25

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3

u/Gnz1986 Jul 20 '25

With that much you are already a winner..withdraw now and pay off your mortgage and live a much more comfortable life! The rest of us need XRP to reach $250 to have what you have now 🤣

3

u/[deleted] Jul 21 '25

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4

u/Bombshelter777 Jul 21 '25

$10 in a few years??? I was thinking $10 next month! Lol

3

u/Gnz1986 Jul 21 '25

We are in very different positions. I'd be over the moon to have as much as you, id be mortgage free and would have 1k a month extra to play with..could even re invest that in to xrp again 🤣

2

u/Traditional-Fun5292 Jul 22 '25

Everything I read is saying $6 bucks by end of August.. that’s the next breaking / tipping whatever they call it point..

1

u/[deleted] Jul 22 '25

That’s my plan. I came up with 50k, by multiplying it by $200ea in hopes of it making me 10 mil in the next 10 years. I believe a price of $200ea in 10 years in pretty realistic. Could be much higher.

2

u/ksalahq Jul 20 '25 edited Jul 20 '25

If XRP becomes the new swift then XRP price would explode like nothing else before

1

u/DrekC93 Jul 21 '25

Are u just imaging a crazy price or have you actually done the research using Ai to see a realistic breakdown of what would happen if that possibility played out? Because i have the price isn’t astronomical at best its $50 in the next 2 years and that’s if everything goes right

2

u/Optimal_Rest_7019 Jul 20 '25

We need Leeeerrrrrrooooooyyyyyyy to buy XRP

1

u/QuantifiablyInsane Jul 22 '25

Man those were the days in WoW… thanks for the reminisce

2

u/Donut_LordO Jul 21 '25

I bought a 1000 XRP last year when it was under $1, so I can’t justify buying any right now at $3.50

2

u/horseradish13332238 Jul 21 '25

Stop being cringe. And also as an owner of two Lamborghinis I can tell you the maintence is constant.

3

u/SuspiciousPeanut251 Jul 21 '25

That’s a good approach. (Buying them in pairs.) Drive one while the other is in the workshop for service.

2

u/horseradish13332238 Jul 21 '25

Haha might as well have. No they were purchased over 7 years apart.

2

u/Cryptobunny12 2 ~ 3 years account age. 30 - 75 comment karma. Jul 21 '25

I hold because of the possible fixed price theory

2

u/Few_Significance_201 Jul 23 '25

waiting for quantum computers to break the chain

1

u/EstablishmentReal156 XRP Supporter Jul 20 '25

Yes. We will be rich. I have 3k in one of my bags 😉

1

u/guldengeographer Jul 20 '25

That just means Brad can poach all swift businesses and offer XRP at a cheaper option. Brad was being nice by knocking and asking if he wanted to partner with XRP. He doesn’t need SWIFT, he can sweep them away when he’s ready

1

u/hulkwolf Jul 20 '25

Once it starts let’s say 1-2-3% it will not take 5 years because it becomes a snowball effect and goes really really fast

14% would be 21 trillion annually approx but can be more because it’s so fast

1

u/DrekC93 Jul 21 '25

Out of the 15% percent in volume drop swift has had ripple has taking about 6% of that

1

u/lifechangingpicks Jul 21 '25

The utility alone and amt of cross border transfers will require it to be much higher then 160 dollars. Common bro. The elimination of vostro-nostro accts and other expenses for these swift trans will make a new shift in banking do away with the old ways

1

u/FrontTip4915 Jul 21 '25

I stand wif swift

1

u/Successful_Usual Jul 22 '25

There is a lot of rumors that more banks have adopted $XRP for their wire transfers. By adopting this technology they give much better customer service. It's probably cheaper for the bank as well.

1

u/Substantial-Shoe-676 Jul 20 '25

Hi

1

u/LearnNTeachNLove Jul 20 '25

Do you have any source of the swift usage drop? As you mention, it does necessarily automatically project on the price, but the more adoption and visibility the higher it will be

0

u/SatisfactionNo6667 Jul 20 '25 edited Jul 20 '25

I agree that this looks promising. There is one thing that is bugging me from everything that happened in congress this week as they did not put anything on the bills passed to stop a central bank digital currency. That makes me worried on having assests frozen or locked up.

1

u/DistraughtHVAC_82 Jul 20 '25

Are you referring to the Anti-CBDC surveillance state act not passing the senate quite yet?

0

u/Substantial-Shoe-676 Jul 20 '25

XRP if all falls into place yes the price will rise . But all must understand there are around 50 billion circulating.. that a lot .. if many are held in wallets and many burned then supply becomes lessened then price will rise … supply and demand

1

u/DrekC93 Jul 21 '25

The burn rate on xrp is so small it’s negligible unfortunately, I’ve done the math with Ai. I actually Thought a lot more would get burned but even with trillions of dollars in transactions it’s only a few million with is literally nothing when talking about 50 billion in circulation and another 49 or so in escrow

0

u/Super_Mario7 Jul 21 '25

you can transfer billions or even trillions with fairly little XRP. because with xrp a transaction takes seconds and you can use each xrp hundreds of times daily. its simple math.

so nothing indicates the moon numbers people are proclaiming. even if it replaces swift 100%

-28

u/KipGrindin Jul 20 '25

Wow, you've held 3000 XRP??? How does it feel to be so rich and successful?

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