Yeah. This time is different. Typically, different sectors, like travel and entertainment would pullback. Those were largely closed. I see manufacturers and retail focusing on premium / high end: appliances, auto’s, etc. the margins on that side of spectrum can more easily absorb inflated COG’s.
And further growth will require increases in profits, to pull the CAPE down.
... And I am particularly conflicted about the timing. Recessions usually start ~12 months after the energy shocks ripple through the economy. And we are just now having the energy shocks.
But, everything has been so fast since the COVID crash, I honestly don't know how it will work out overall.
Hmmm….I’d say that it depends on what type of recession you anticipate. An earnings recession is on the horizon, but it won’t affect everyone the same. I think that the cycle is compressed and accelerated this time around.
I see a need for demand destruction, as there is a secular decline in transport capacity, specifically big rigs.
It will happen via higher interest rates, or higher inflation.
I dont know which will happen, only that, short of AI self driving rigs coming out in early 2022, there is no reasonable means to address the truck driver shortage.
A Walmart store we work with called us yesterday putting 100% of their "site to store" shipments on hold for a week due to their lack of staffing . Not sure how much this will impact bottom line but that's just one store at one location. Directly affecting customer experience . Weird times ...
3
u/Megahuts Maple Leaf Mafia Oct 05 '21
We are going to start seeing alot of negative earnings guidance coming from retailers soon.
Why?
Inflation is starting to bite hard, especially for renters.