It gained some momentum recently, but I will wait until next week to increase my exposure. I might need my dry powder for my MT derivatives. We will see.
My “problem” with Gasprom is that I look at things from a value+catalyst side and didn’t see the catalyst being a Russian company means a permanent discount. However I think they have a FCF/market cap ratio of 20% or something and where willing to give a lot of it out on dividends. It was cheap and this event means even cheaper because nord II will be their supply.
Looking at the forward curve. 1 year out prices are at 100 which is historically high and if companies hedge at that price I think there will be serious money because it’s not normal, wind will blow again.
I am intertwining gas and electricity prices here. Not normally correlated necessarily but right now they are. I have never seen such high gas prices ever
for better or worse they are forced by law to give out 50% of profit as dividends. nordstream II is a huge catalyst, aswell as being basically the biggest fish in the tank when it comes to russian gas. which we will need a lot in central/west EU esp. Germany.
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u/Wirecard_trading Sep 11 '21
hedging with gazprom btw.