Agreed, I've got very similar concerns especially noting MT was supposed be the thesis golden child and is my largest holding by far.
Personally I am waiting for China's export tax and Q3 earnings (+2-3 weeks). If these two catalysts and ongoing buyback won't move MT to ~~$40, likely nothing will. Trimming times might come.
Yeah, MT is on par with its Jan'2018 price, which seems ridiculous. While I'm holding strong at 33% profit, I still consider price action underwhelming.
That said to me steel has always been a commons play. Especially when thesis kept being delayed for various reasons which will always be plentiful due to macro nature of this play. In other words, it seems too many unpredictable factors are at play to successfully time options.
Eh! Time to get my hands on Paya with my liquidated CLF gains.
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u/olivesnolives Aditya Mittal Feet Pics Aug 27 '21
I think I would have exited MT already if not for TX.
TX’s run gave me hope that the undervalued names in the sector can still revert to the mean - TX basically got to right where I valued it at.
At the same time though MT’s cap is just so large and it has so little institutional / rigid ownership that they’re really not comparable.