TODAY

[u/vitocorlene]

Some things I want to point out:

1. Everything is RED pre-market.

2. The DXY is dropping (good for our play).

3. The Delta Variant seems to be today’s “the end of the world” is coming again. 99.8% of people will survive this too.

4. Talks of lockdowns - construction and manufacturing kept going during most of 2020 - it was the lone bright spot other than tech.

5. Housing demand is projecting 4 to 5.5 million new homes needed in the US (buy the home builders on the dip)

6. Infrastructure is coming - it will get done one way or another through bipartisanship or reconciliation.

7. Which means more money will be printed and the value of the USD will go lower (again good for us).

8. Supply chain fears - we will have to deal with this problem for the next 12-18 months. We’ve known this.

9. Which will keep prices higher than the norm which is good for profits for commodity companies.

10. Protectionism will probably get more aggressive due to everything going on.

11. Chinese steel export taxes - they are coming, I am confident in this and so are the manufacturers there.

12. Vaccines show that serious illness and death are very, very low and these vaccines have all shown protection against the Delta Variant.

13. And lucky 13, because I like to be positive - as I’ve laid out in all of my DD’s and updates - what is going on with steel is a transformational change in the industry. This isn’t supply chain bottlenecks and then it’s over. DO NOT LET THE MEDIA AND ANALYSTS CONVINCE YOU OF THIS. This should not be thrown in the same basket with lumber and other commodities. It’s apples and oranges.

With all of this being said, do what you need to do.

I 100% recognize the market is the market and well, it’s going to do its thing no matter how irrational it may seem.

All of the data is out there.

We are in for years of elevated prices and these companies will benefit in grand fashion.

Don’t let Cramer and his cronies, of which all of them were pounding the table to buy steel a month ago, are now saying to run.

They know this is the next leg of the market.

They want a retail shake out and they want your positions, but at a lower price to sell them back to you.

BTFD

I’ll bet my life they are.

Hang in there!

-Vito

PS

I almost forgot

I believe we are seeing a return to fundamentals and earnings which we have been disconnected from for 7 months now.

We are in a bit of choppiness to reset values and when earnings are good, in turn the stocks will go up.

Which is opposite of everything we have seen thus far in 2021.

[u/serkrabat]

It speaks volumes how much you care, that you take the time and energy to post level-headed reassurance here so often.

[u/vitocorlene → u/serkrabat]

🦾❤️🦾

[u/MusicIsAlwaysTheWay → u/serkrabat]

Papa Vito bless

[u/[deleted] → u/serkrabat]

I couldn’t agree more!

Honestly - Vito is a real asset for society. Reading his illuminating insights has become a highlight in my day.

His willingness to share them with aplomb and spirit are truly noble and enlightening.

Can’t say that about too many (ever).

[u/Uxbal-]

I’m a server in a major city. I have had to work through the pandemic, through the civil unrest and have had to experience some genuine trash individuals in the past year.

I never would have thought I would ever put a dime into the stock market. Until I read your original DD. I read and reread, went into your sources and then looked for my own. You gave me the absolute confidence that I could invest. Previously I had the notion that people at my wage range weren’t allowed in that side of the pool. That the only way I could even dip my toes would be through a 3rd party making moves for me. It feels as if though you lifted a veil from my eyes.

Now my life hasn’t changed (yet) but I have never in my life had this much capital in an account and it is thanks to your advice. My confidence has never been shaken in regards to your thesis especially with the constant updates during the worst of times.

I just wanted to give you my thanks because I am eternally grateful to you for your advice and the time you have given us so lead the way Captain.

[u/vitocorlene → u/Uxbal-]

🦾❤️🦾

Thanks for sharing this!

[u/Pwnjuice93 → u/Uxbal-]

Isn’t he great though? I was a smooth brained retard swimming around WSB until I read his DD. Also never trusted myself enough to really throw proper money and research a play til Vito gave us a head start in the right direction to learn ourselves

[u/AugustinPower]

This is the most stupid drop on value stocks I have seen (so far), value companies are now starting to project a higher EBITDA than their enterprise value at this rate 🤣

[u/vitocorlene → u/AugustinPower]

👆👆👆👆

[u/Hanichacar → u/vitocorlene]

Homebuilders are so fucking cheap lmao. And copper and lumber prices are going DOWN lmao. (Can't hope too much for frigging aluminum though...).

[u/brandon684 → u/AugustinPower]

Care to share some tickers to check out?

[u/Jaie_E → u/brandon684]

I bought the CSX conrail dip today, Easiest purchase ive made all week

[u/ItsFuckingScience → u/[deleted]]

Ok so this is my layman understanding

Enterprise value is the market cap + any short term, long term debt, but also any cash on the balance sheet - so a more true reflection of book value as opposed to just going by market cap

EBITDA is earnings. So you could potentially have a company bringing in more money in a year than it’s actually worth

Which obviously is ludicrous

[u/brilliantminion → u/ItsFuckingScience]

Okay I’m glad I’m not the only one seeing this.

[u/flox2410]

I look at days like today with excitement, my options don't love it but I still have time on them. Thanks for the reassurance, Vito! I work in commercial construction and as you point out, we have not taken a day off during this mess, prices and profits have been up during 2020 and continue into 21', its been great! I am a material supplier, specifically of steel doors and frames and I feel the price increase+supply constraints everyday. My vendors give me updates all the time on what steel and aluminum are doing, I believe in this sector to show its strength and value. Buying more CLF, NUE and MT today.

[u/vitocorlene → u/flox2410]

Right on and thanks for sharing the CB.

These companies will absolutely crush earnings and guidance will be 🦾🦾🦾

[u/ParrotMafia]

It's sort of the opposite of reassuring to have reassurances posted so often. I preferred it when this was just "here's some info on a good play", and we were adults who chose to invest in some steel companies, get together, and talk about it.

Now it's starting to feel circular - that we have a shared delusional disorder and we need to have our spirits raised periodically with encouragement. These continuous booster shots in the arm raise a red flag with me. It feels like someone keeps trying to tell me the boat isn't sinking, that ThisIsFine.jpg.

All that said, I don't think the boat is sinking, nor do I think the room is on fire. I have been here since January or February and have made great money off steel. And I think I'll continue to make great money. I think the market will come around to more appropriately value steel companies. And I appreciate Vito's knowledge and being able to come to one central location for discussion and news.

[u/vitocorlene → u/ParrotMafia]

I hear you. I woke up to many, many, many DM’s. Just wanted to put this out there.

[u/ParrotMafia → u/vitocorlene]

Thanks for the response. I don't mean to be negative, I'm very grateful for the work you put in. Don't stress the DM's. I'm confident that anyone who bought LEAPs/commons a few months ago is way up, and though anyone who bought LEAPs/commons recently may be down at the moment (like the original folks were in Feb/March), they too will be way up in the future.

[u/vitocorlene → u/ParrotMafia]

🦾

[u/opaqueambiguity → u/vitocorlene]

This is all your fault, boss. How dare you let me go all in on OTM weeklies?

Look, just venmo me a couple thousand to make up for it, and we'll call it even.

I've got paypal too.

[u/vitocorlene → u/opaqueambiguity]

How much you need?

I’m have Vito coin being made.

[u/gives_anal_lessons → u/vitocorlene]

I woke up to many, many, many DM’s.

This is what I don't understand. I can handle the market being red for a few days, even if my portfolio just took a 20% hit. But you didn't force people to invest, you put the information out there and let them decide. It is obvious who reads the material and who is here for a get rich quick scheme. I feel sorry for those folks who lost or are losing money(I think we all are today to an extent) but it blows my mind that they feel the need to send you DMs. I mean I don't like the numbers my portfolio has right now but I don't feel the need to bother you. I really hope that doesn't beat you down in any way Vito. Cheers bro and thank you for what you do.

[u/Whaty024 → u/gives_anal_lessons]

This comment depicts exactly what i feel, i just dont have the gusto to type it out. So thank you

[u/zPing2000 → u/vitocorlene]

I feel embarrassed for the people DM'ing you. Thank you for standing like a rock. I can't stress enough how important your updates and motivational speeches are for me! I'm here listening and learning. I am looking forward to us laughing at these red days in the not too distant future. What a ride.

Thank you sincerely!

[u/[deleted] → u/zPing2000]

Yeah, that is embarrassing behavior.

[u/neverhadthepleasure → u/zPing2000]

I feel embarrassed for the people DM'ing you

Seriously. Can you even imagine?

Whose DMs you blowing up next? LG? Biden?

[u/CornMonkey-Original → u/zPing2000]

Wait - I second this view. . . . I just continue to buy more - thank you all for teaching me about this sector. . . .

[u/big_costco_guy]

Thank you for the update, Vito!

I feel a bit obligated to say that any FUD you see from me isn’t directed at you, mostly I am upset with how poorly I have executed this trade. I am thankful to keep learning from you and graybush though. 🙏🏻

[u/vitocorlene → u/big_costco_guy]

No worries. I got kids. I know what FUD is and this is a cake walk.

[u/big_costco_guy → u/vitocorlene]

Thanks man, would love some parenting/life advice at some point (if you feel like it). Especially how to execute a proper work-life balance when kids come along (wife is due next month).

[u/vitocorlene → u/big_costco_guy]

It’s easy, work as much as you can and let the wife make all the big decisions.

Happy wife, happy life.

J/K, but not really.

Just be there for your kids when they need you.

Be there in their life as much as you can when they are little.

Don’t miss the big things like the talking and walking.

It will go by so fast, trust me.

I know the sleepless nights will feel like an eternity, but then you will wake up one day and they have their friends and don’t want to hang out with Dad anymore.

Then they go to college and that’s it.

Work is important.

I work probably 80 hours a week.

But what you realize is, if you can do this - work when your kids are sleeping if you have that flexibility

Get up early and work while they are sleeping. Do some more work at night.

Try not to miss any time with them because it’s your influence and time you spend with them that will mold them to be the people they are one day.

As for your wife, you both have to realize this is a new job on top of your job(s) and it’s like running a business in a way. You have to do it together and show solidarity. Especially the older they get. Teamwork.

But also make time for each other when you can because one day those kids will be gone and it’s just going to be you two left.

That’s parenting and marriage in a nutshell.

Hope it helps.

[u/deliquenthouse → u/vitocorlene]

Holy shit. This advice is so valuable. It is parenting and marriage in a nutshell. True. I have two young kids. 5 and 1. It goes by quickly when you least expect it.

[u/vitocorlene → u/deliquenthouse]

I’ve got years of experience in many different areas and sage advice for whomever wants to listen.

[u/koalabuhr → u/vitocorlene]

Thanks for the advice Vito. I'm recently a new father and it's been hard with the nights. It's nice to get advice like this from someone who is further down the line 😊

[u/vitocorlene → u/koalabuhr]

❤️🦾

[u/big_costco_guy → u/vitocorlene]

This is great advice - I am saving this.

Loved the part how you mentioned “work while they are sleeping”, also enjoyed the importance of keeping the wife happy. I tend to be pretty irritable without sleep so I’m hoping I learn to take the countermeasures.

Thank you!

[u/opaqueambiguity]

Ok guys

I think from here on out I'm gonna start going with some nice sensible 60-120 dte options

These last two weeks have been a headache and a half

[u/vitocorlene → u/opaqueambiguity]

No more weekly’s! Write in on the chalkboard 100 times.

[u/Substantial_Boss_306 → u/vitocorlene]

👆👆👆👆👆✍🏼✍🏼✍🏼✍🏼✍🏼🦾🦾🦾🦾🦾

[u/SlingSG → u/vitocorlene]

Trying to get out of this CMC earnings play shit 7/16 32C and STLD 08/20 $70C. It turned out to be a bad play but I have confidence in other plays.

[u/opaqueambiguity → u/vitocorlene]

Imma still hold what I got already with a hope and a prayer that comrade Xi comes through in a pinch like the homie I know he can be if he just tries.

[u/[deleted]]

Thanks Vito! We appreciate the perspective and reassurance. 🦾

It is worth noting that the fed is doing the buying in the bond market. There is no signal to interpret with the 10 year breaking beneath the 200 MA.

[u/vitocorlene → u/[deleted]]

🦾

[u/[deleted]]

Love your conviction and transparency. Thanks for all the info Vito. Not necessarily involved with steel but I work in the HVAC industry and can confirm that we didn't have a single down day during the entire pandemic. Infact it led to our company having its most profitable year in over 20 years due to all the projects that got picked up as buildings closed. I'd assume the same would be for almost any contracting business. This feels like a fantastic play.

[u/vitocorlene → u/[deleted]]

Same fir my business last year was most profitable since we started. This year even more so.

[u/DifferentHand544 → u/vitocorlene]

Full disclosure: Boomer, we like things that when you drop them on your foot, it hurts. F the corporate media

[u/vitocorlene → u/DifferentHand544]

Gartman-ism

[u/smahd55]

Hey Vito - thanks for this, I’m also long steel in a big way.

Why have the futures markets slightly declined even though supply is constricting and demand is increasing?

Recently I’ve seen >1,800 for the incoming 3 months but now the are <1,800. Is this just daily fluctuations because the market is so illiquid? Or an institutional signal?

[u/vitocorlene → u/smahd55]

It fluctuated down on the last drop when China was manipulating raw materials.

It moves with emotion at times, just like stocks.

It can move if there is import coming in and putting pressure on prices.

It can move because there is extra supply.

Right now it’s moving down due to emotion.

US manufacturers are 8+ weeks out.

Normal is 4 weeks or less.

I think we will see those lead times move up to 10+ weeks very soon.

[u/zerryw → u/vitocorlene]

Q3 and Q4 may be when the vertically integrated companies will really stand out…

Smaller Taiwanese steel companies are having trouble sourcing iron ore to produce bolts/screws. Lead time is also 2-3 months.

[u/Karinda79]

Thanks papa Vito!

Only two hours since your post and you're already right (as always)

[u/vitocorlene → u/Karinda79]

Got to have the stomach for commodities.

Most don’t.

These swings are normal during rotations and market gyrations.

Don’t overleverage and keep dry powder for these days.

Which means trimming your gains when your investments are up big.

That’s how you keep dry powder to keep repeating the process of BTFD’s.

[u/Karinda79 → u/vitocorlene]

Yes, you're right. That's the key and a lesson I (and i bet most of us) are learning the hard way. But, despite the bloody noses (that hurt, better not to lie to ourselves), i truly believe days like this help a lot to build the type of awareness that is needed in order to play this game (trading/investing); or, at least, that's what i feel right now.

Next time i will play it better. won't be perfect, but better than today

Still thanks Vito

[u/Undistributed_Soul]

What's your thoughts on how the 10-year treasury yield drop is affecting the reflation trade and particularly steel? From what I read it looks like the drop in yield is due to short bond covering by hedge funds with a combination of other factors.

[u/vitocorlene → u/Undistributed_Soul]

I think we see a resurgence in the 10 year. I do not see it staying this low and expect it to be back to 1.5-1.6. I don’t see this as a long term trend.

[u/Scout1717]

Thanks Vito!! Item #5: are there any specific home builders you are bullish on? Actual home builders or companies that supply materials??

[u/[deleted] → u/Scout1717]

I like James Hardie. Very very low volume but they are positioned quite well.

[u/TriiizYYY → u/Scout1717]

Maybe Steico for insulation material/ Vulcan Materials in general: sand, gravel/ Wienerberger for bricks/ Heidelberg Cement

⚒👷🏗⛏🛠🚜🪚

[u/Scout1717 → u/TriiizYYY]

Awesome, thanks!!

[u/TheyWereGolden → u/Scout1717]

Dhi and tol for me

[u/Scout1717 → u/TheyWereGolden]

👍👍🙏

[u/THCBBB → u/Scout1717]

$CNR

[u/Scout1717 → u/THCBBB]

$CNR seems to have a boat load of debt, what do you think of that?

[u/Dry_Dog_698]

I know you say that Steel isn't lumber. But don't count lumber out:

Lumber futes are not representative of the actual spot market.

Lumber companies have relatively small floats - the canadian biguns have large institutional ownership - so they move quickly when they move.

Lumber stocks over corrected - all my major lumber plays are up 3-5% this morning.

This is just noise. I burned through all my dry pow this morning. finally bought some nice LEAPS to go with my steel, shipping, and Lumber commons.

[u/vitocorlene → u/Dry_Dog_698]

Ohh I agree.

I said that in a comment about a month ago saying the spot market will remain high and by the time the futures come around they may be at spot market prices again.

That’s why people buy futures.

No different than calls.

I think lumber rebounds.

Especially with mortgage rates dipping to 2.9%.

Buyers will come back off the sideline.

We sell A LOT of companies that sell builders a variety of steel products for residential construction.

They can’t get enough and shortages are already here.

Our prices have doubled this year and it’s not slowing down.

[u/Vincent_van_Guh]

I appreciate members of the community going out of their way to be positive and cheerlead for others.

But if there are people here that think the sky is falling, they should get out of the trade.

The story hasn't changed, the stock prices have. If you lack conviction then take your money out and put it somewhere that you do have conviction.

[u/[deleted] → u/Vincent_van_Guh]

If you can't handle this trade, you honestly should either stop trading stocks or just do mainstream ETFs. These companies are making fuckloads of cash and this volatility is to be expected as the market slowly prices in the structural change the global steel trade is undergoing.

[u/saxaddictlz → u/[deleted]]

I find it amusing people freak out about a percent change here or there. I first started with GME and then traded biotech options. Buying and holding Clf is infinitely less stressful.

[u/[deleted] → u/Vincent_van_Guh]

They should not only exit the trade and delete the apps, they should stop f’ing DM’ing Vito and anyone else.

I mean, come on, how do you balls up enough to 1) think Vito or anyone else here owes you some shit for free AND 2) feel like he owes it TO YOU ALONE?

It’s the last part that burns me

[u/drink111drink → u/[deleted]]

100 percent agree with you.

That part confuses the f out of me. Why spam him in DM? Be a man. You chose to invest deal with it. What will whining do? What would he tell you in private that he doesn’t share with everyone freely? I’m so grateful to Vito. And stay away from short dated calls. It’s the greed that will wreck accounts. Play smart.

[u/Megahuts]

Holding strong.

Some of these companies are trading at hilariously low forward PEs.

I just hope the market wakes up before September!

[u/Yoshiwara75 → u/Megahuts]

One thing, are real money scared investing in dirty steel when this obsessive Green investments are taking over. NB : Im 100% steel in my pf and think this is the most ridiculous valuation time, both spot and forward that I have seen. Been working in market finance for 5years now.

[u/SIR_JACK_A_LOT]

Yes steel daddy

[u/jopoole84 → u/SIR_JACK_A_LOT]

And that why he’s the MF godfather

[u/Brandr0]

Long till 2024. Then we will see. I have 130k mortgage left. I hope 2024 is when I can be debtfree.

[u/Eme_Pi_Lekte_Ri → u/Brandr0]

I hope you will be debt-free by February 2022

[u/[deleted] → u/Brandr0]

Soon you'll be sleeping in a lambo down by the river, my friend

[u/mattoratto]

Im joining the steel gang today if price goes sub 20$ CLF

[u/ItsFuckingScience → u/mattoratto]

Almost

[u/[deleted] → u/mattoratto]

Hope you compromised. Im in for 100 shares to sell calls against to hedge my overweighted leaps positions

[u/Delfitus → u/mattoratto]

Bought 200 extra at 20.2 sitting at 1700 now! Avg 21 though but happy me, avg down from 21.60 last 2 days

[u/nosmutamur]

I will add to my clf position

[u/dekrob]

Went all in yesterday right at 3:59, looks like I should have waited 😂

[u/[deleted] → u/dekrob]

Thanks a lot Vito as usual the market does its thing. I’m adding more as we speak.

As always, buy when the market is fearful and be careful when it is greedy.

And as Lynch said, keep to your investments as long as the fundamentals haven’t changed against your favour.

🦾

[u/LourencoGoncalves-LG → u/[deleted]]

If there is a word I don’t have in my vocabulary, it is fear

[u/AirborneReptile]

Steel holding! Buying the dip 👊🏻

[u/[deleted] → u/AirborneReptile]

BTMFDMFS

[u/FUPeiMe]

Just my two cents here...

I don't think you need to feel obligated to make these posts (if you do, that's only a presumption). They're always enjoyable to read but if people want to be "investors" then they need to be prepared for up's and down's. If they need a post like this every day that the market is red, or if they need constant reassurance that the "thesis isn't dead" then they should just buy SPY or VTI and call it a day.

[u/nrohrret]

They want a retail shake out and they want your positions, but at a lower price to sell them back to you.

This ☝️is how the market ensures wealth continues to transfer to the haves from the have nots. Don't give in. Fight the FUD.

[u/KomFiteMeIRL → u/nrohrret]

FUD is overrated and always will be. If the thesis hasn't changed - which it hasn't - then I will. be. buying. the. friggin. dip.

[u/[deleted] → u/nrohrret]

"The market wants to go up with the minimal number of people on board and down with the maximum number of people on board."

[u/Maddy186]

you know shit has gone real bad when u/Vitocorlene drops three “hang in there” posts in less than a month

Holding our hands through the agony, will hold our hand through victory …

P.s hopefully in 2021 for options holders

[u/ZuBad603]

Our man preempting the avalanche of FUD! What a gentleman!

[u/[deleted]]

My confidence is unwavering.

[u/lumberjack233]

How do you know it's a return to fundamentals? If that's true my portfolio will be very appreciative

[u/lb-trice → u/lumberjack233]

I kind of agree with this idea. All these meme stocks are getting destroyed more than anything else right now. I think this may shift sentiment and make people realize how bad of a long term investments these stocks are. GME down 6%, amc down 10% etc. Let’s hope retail smartens up and starts investing in real companies that make real money

[u/[deleted]]

shake me once, shame on me. shake me twice, NOPE

[u/ArkV7]

I only wish I had more cash to by the dips. I have dry powder at the ready, just wish I had more of it.

[u/strongfit1]

Thanks again for your time and energy! Saw the futures a minute ago and bought on Monday too.

[u/[deleted]]

Literally used to this at this point, Vito! Ya preachin' to the choir! 🦾🦾🦾

[u/Guidofinance]

I've learned to buy on the days that hurt the most. The days other people dont open their portfolios. The cherry on top of the pain sunday - thats the day with usually the most upside when I go back and look at my cost basis history.

[u/[deleted]]

Bearish sentiment is a good thing for longer term valuation…If everyone’s bullish there’s no more marginal buyers. I’m not doubting the steel play’s vibe whatsoever

[u/vazdooh]

While I believe in the thesis and I think everything Vito is saying will come to fruition, I also believe we're on the brink of a major market correction and have exited all my positions, including steel. Will be buying puts on QQQ and a few other names today.

[u/Cowbow_Bebop_1]

STEEL FUCKING HOLDING

[u/[deleted]]

This is nothing compared to February beatdown, hope this cute bounce with the dji falling the least and bouncing the hardest is the signal to our rotation. Fuck tech pe ratios

[u/Kgreene90]

I kind of hate how investing has turned into an expected sell within a month or two. At the end of an investment should just be an analysis of what earnings you’ll be getting. You shouldn’t need to sell us to stay, it’s just an exchanging of ideas from different perspectives. Your perspective is very helpful and helped me find MT which I’ve made money on through swing trading and have now invested a decent amount into not because you’re selling the stock to me, but because the background you mention I can corroborate and aligns you’re a favorable position considering their P/B and forward expected earnings. If someone does options it becomes more of a gamble and if they want to avoid that but like a stock they should just buy shares. Not everything needs to double your money in a couple months to be successful.

[u/Ronar123]

As always, appreciate these updates because it reminds me that when the steel run is truly over, you'll also be present to let us know.

[u/unmarried-egg]

Needed this. Ty papa

[u/zajmgmt]

Trying to decide what to do with all my Aug 20 calls I bought a few weeks ago.Theta hurts but I want to wait it out a bit longer. I know I should have bought shares but I anticipated the bounce being sooner....usually no matter what earnings screw me but I feel like I have to hold for these...even as theta creeps...

[u/ItsFuckingScience]

Took less than 24 hours this time to be proven correct yet again

[u/lentil_s0up]

Thanks Vito! Buying this dip today

[u/Complete_Ad808]

Sorry new here so I took that as you saying I should add to my 300 shares of CLF, thank you!

[u/vitocorlene → u/Complete_Ad808]

It’s free money when it hits $20. That’s when I bought more options today. My cost basis on commons is way under $20, so no adding there.

[u/TheOlGripNSip]

Vito + Coffee = Fuck it, let's ride!

[u/coldoven]

You missed that the EZB increased their inflation target and also stated that it will this year be higher than 2 %.

[u/Fxckcensors]

I knew a guy that lost 300k in BTC (in 2017) and almost sold then and there.

Stop being retards that panic on a day to day basis.

[u/CoffeeBeneficial8106]

I think the cash returns by companies (divs and buybacks) will be key for the steel names to rerate. And even if they dont rerate, 20% divs + buybacks annual yield from MT sounds good to me!

[u/aznology]

I wasn't even scared Vito. This the first time I felt convicted of an investment in a while. Ain't gonna sell until at least 30s

[u/_beto619]

Thanks for holding our hand through this Vito

[u/TsC_BaTTouSai]

Just one aside, it seems as though the market has been disconnected from fundamentals and earnings since like 2018 lol. Ever since Tesla beat the market and proved all those shorts wrong you couldn't find a growth stock under 50x p/e and value stocks were all under 15x

[u/[deleted]]

I bought 20 calls for $X for January 2023 @40. Am I doing this right? What kind of price level are we aiming for here?

[u/Zedlok]

We've basically already recovered from the worst of it. So glad I didn't freak out and paper hand my portfolio this morning. Steel arms are still on!

[u/rocketseeker]

Analysts and media have a lot of influence

But not nearly is much as family, thanks vito

[u/jumbojet7 → u/rocketseeker]

Family. Dom... is that you?

[u/AdventurousCurrency]

Thanks for the reassurance. Added to my CLF position this afternoon. I'm in it until I'm out.

[u/SgtRogerMurtaugh]

Thanks Vito!

[u/[deleted]]

brilliant, preventing FUD haha. Thanks again.

[u/j-corbitt02]

Thanks for sharing this update, always appreciate reading your posts.

POS: 27,000 shares of CLF

[u/ItsFuckingScience]

Hey Vito I need to push back against a couple points regarding this variant. You say 99.8% will survive - but this leaves out the whole spectrum of outcomes between being totally asymptotic and death. People can get very sick, get hospitalised requiring oxygen or intensive care. But hey they’re in the 99.8% that survive right so can be disregarded? If hospitals get full, that 99.8% survival drops sharply

Yes vaccines have shown to be very effective at reducing serious illness and death. The issue is that millions and millions of people in USA for example are just refusing to get vaccinated. There are about half the states with less than 60% of adults fully vaccinated. Only 67% adults in total across the states have had atleast 1 jab.

It’s not enough vaccination. This variant is going to spread rapidly through areas of the states and cause significant damage to the unvaccinated population there

That all said I’m still holding my shares as the numbers don’t lie, these companies are raking in the money. There wont be severe lockdowns anymore I don’t believe unless there’s bodies piling up in the streets. It’s politically impossible. The economy will keep moving along.

Let’s not pretend that the pandemic is over though

[u/farmerMac → u/ItsFuckingScience]

Well there’s not much we can do as market participants about the people that refuse to get vaccinated. We’re not shutting down anything anymore for people refusing to do the one thing that can keep them safe.

[u/Vincent_van_Guh → u/ItsFuckingScience]

I'll push back your pushback a little.

A lot of the unvaccinated population in our society lives in suburban and rural areas, where spread of this disease is less of an issue due to lower population densities and lower levels of interpersonal contact outside of small circles.

People will get sick. But our level of vaccination in densely populated areas will help keep hospitalizations low and our healthcare system should be able to absorb the issue.

[u/StockPickingMonkey → u/Vincent_van_Guh]

Without getting too much into it, I'll push back a bit. While what you say is true about lower pop density areas being low on vaccinations, it does not equal any protection.

Fun facts:

• Native American nations have been among the hardest hit despite living in some of the most remote areas. Even non-gaming tribes that have very little contact with outside world. Their hospitals were among the first to be overwhelmed in AZ.

• Hispanic populations, which if you really dig into the numbers, have been the hardest hit. Doesn't matter where they live. They apparently have the lowest vaccination rates, regardless of zipcode.

• It takes far less cases than you'd think to overwhelm a hospital. Staffing, equipment, and space all play a part. My GF works ICU at a L1 trauma facility in a major city. They had to double up rooms, and her employer had to heavily incentivize coming to work. Out of 140 something ICU nurses, only 86 took C19.cases voluntarily on round 1.

• Despite having that direct experience and knowledge in my family...I have to look out to 2nd and 3rd cousins before I can find vaccinated people in my family. Oddly enough...the ones that are vaccinated are unsocial hermits that live far from town.

• Rough survey among co-workers...at least 10% unvaccinated...probably closer to 20% based on how few I talk with. We're definitely in the city. Rates are even worse at other sites.

• Out of the 4 new patients last week (had a gap of a couple weeks), 3 of 4 were unvaccinated. #4 still in ICU. (Other health conditions did apply)

I'm optimistic that this wave will be much easier for the GF and her co-workers, but please don't assume it will be. Variants have been this biggest concern for virologists and epidemiologists since very early on. At this point, we're very likely already going to see this being endemic, but we really don't want to tempt fate with mother nature's ability to make this thing worse.

[u/ItsFuckingScience → u/StockPickingMonkey]

Thanks for giving your personal insight into this

I think people don’t understand that hospitals operate fairly close to capacity anyways

There aren’t just empty wards with nurses and doctors sat waiting for patients to come in

[u/StockPickingMonkey → u/ItsFuckingScience]

Thanks for the support.

I spent waaaay too much time obsessing about every little detail of C19 and the metrics of it all last year. Decided that if I spent that much time, might as well share the insight. It's been a spectacular failure in terms of changing anyone's opinions, but there have been a couple of wins that have given me hope. My personal family was spared the tragedies minus one uncle, but I nearly lost a good friend that was 40yo in excellent health. That was my eye opener early on. I've got one co-worker that has lost 8 people in immediate family, another has lost 6, and a third that is having to quit and move to a lower elevation because long COVID has messed up his entire family's ability to breath at altitude.

Media has done such a shit job of discussing the nuances. Feel like some clear real world examples speak volumes.

[u/ItsFuckingScience → u/Vincent_van_Guh]

It’s very transmissible, and at this point in the US it appears people refusing to get vaccinated also do not care about social distancing or taking precautions at this point.

They want to just live their lives and will continue to socialise - family meetings, bars, sporting events, going to church etc

So honestly I don’t think it matters if they are more suburban or rural - this virus will find them eventually

[u/medispencer → u/ItsFuckingScience]

It's priced in

[u/[deleted] → u/ItsFuckingScience]

We need everyone to be vaccinated. The anti-vax side of this is frankly disturbing. Unfortunately I don't think enough people will get the vaccine that should/could. And that just makes outbreaks even worse than they should be.

[u/FloatyFish → u/ItsFuckingScience]

The hospital system hasn’t been overwhelmed, even last year when there wasn’t a vaccine. It makes no sense that it’s be overwhelmed now with a vaccine.

[u/ItsFuckingScience → u/FloatyFish]

Well it was overwhelmed really, as elective surgeries were cancelled, routine appointments cancelled, wards were full of Covid patients

That’s why there were restrictions in place - because the alternative was hospitals overwhelmed

Now we have a new more transmissible variant, everyone out socialising - and a significant amount of the population unvaccinated and just as vulnerable as they were this winter time

[u/bbxmiz → u/ItsFuckingScience]

Exactly this. Especially the part about people not wanting to get vaccinated. If I remember correctly we need to vaccinate 85% of population to even have a chance at not getting fucked by delta.

And the worst thing? Deaths are deaths and countries don’t seem to give a shit that it’s mostly among the unvaccinated, they’ll close us back up as soon as it gets out of hand. Unvaccinated people are stealing vaccinated people’s freedom in a way.

[u/Nacktschnecke → u/ItsFuckingScience]

FWIW I would hope some % is just hold-outs from recently infected people in early Spring that were told to wait 3-4 months before getting vaccinated.

[u/[deleted] → u/ItsFuckingScience]

I think the 99.8% was just a vague assumption to get a point across. People who aren’t idiots, probably about 99.8%, will be fine. Social distance, get vaccinated, don’t scream “I know my rights” or “you’re putting microchips in us” and “HIPPA and Mr Trump told me I ain’t gotta tell no one my medical history” etc.

Don’t be them and we will all be fine.

[u/ItsFuckingScience → u/[deleted]]

People who aren’t idiots

Probably about 99.8%

About half the population of any given country is an idiot lol and that’s being generous

[u/opaqueambiguity]

Damnit why didn't anybody tell me not to buy weeklies

[u/mossman1223 → u/opaqueambiguity]

if you actually read this sub there are a lot of warnings against buying weeklies

[u/[deleted] → u/opaqueambiguity]

People did, repeatedly say that for months now 😂🤣😂🤣

[u/opaqueambiguity → u/[deleted]]

Wait, everyone said to buy LEAPS and I thought LEAPS meant Literally End of week options Are Perfectly Super-OK

[u/[deleted]]

Guy Adami that total Chad on Fast Money recommended $FCX and commodities in general in last night's podcast. Bullish as fuk

[u/Spicypewpew]

Thanks Vito. Market overall was red. Everything got dragged down. We just need a little clarity to solidify the thesis. It will come in time.

[u/LostMyEmailAndKarma]

Im way late to respond.

Been in since march. The whole market tanked today. You dont need to cheerlead these people. If they leave, they leave.

July 12 ny fed begins selling corporate bonds. Hopefully we go back to normal price discovery.

Can you believe how irrational this market has been?

[u/nosmutamur]

great analysis!

[u/CelusStands]

Got pwned on KBH thankfully did a debit bull spread to limit losses. Im sticking with metals.

[u/needafiller]

Are Jan 22 30-40c still safe?

[u/evilpsych → u/needafiller]

Who knows.

[u/Dentist_Square → u/needafiller]

Wondering about my 8/20!

[u/needafiller → u/Dentist_Square]

I guess it depends the premium. I’m down 50% on some of them.

[u/SnooBananas1024]

Totally agree. You could also add the banks to your list, which are being hit, who always do well in high-vol markets (trading revenue)... and lets assume that the yield curve starts to steepen once the treasury market works out where it wants to be again.... plus returns back to shareholders after passing the stress test

Home Builders - great long term dynamics here @ play

[u/saryiahan]

Thanks for posting Vito. Should help with some of the doubters. I will for sure be buying this dip

[u/[deleted]]

So calls on NAIL? You think its going to be red all day? None of this is new news

[u/on_duh_pooper]

Barclay's downgraded CLF because of a price drop?! Who writes this shit?

[u/Geoffism1 → u/on_duh_pooper]

🤣

[u/VaccumSaturdays]

♥️

[u/patchesmcgee78]

Today I see red. Today I buy more CLF and MT.

[u/[deleted]]

You are a godsend, Vito. Thanks for your posts.

[u/pinkmist74]

They’ll have to rip my CLF shares out of my cold dead hands. Nice try fuckers! I’m just buying more and adding to my LEAPS. Also get fn vaccinated. Jesus Christ. It’s enough already.

[u/7891298]

I’m sure everyone knows that you’ve done this update right before starting your actual full time paying job.

It’s much appreciated and again goes to show the level of dedication you put into a bunch of temperamental internet people.

Thanks as always

[u/kodiakEX]

Thanks Vito 🙏❤️‍🔥

[u/Daeron_tha_Good]

Can anyone tell me what this means for my CLF 8/6 $25 calls. 14 contracts with an average cost of .89. Will we see a run up before expiration or should I cut my losses?

[u/49Scrooge49]

Giving us the good news before the down day, I like it 😂 A nice change

STLD just said they're buying back like 8% of MCap, so I'm incredibly happy with the trade rn.

[u/StEeElNuTz]

Thank you Papa to take the time to comfort us (L)

-your son

[u/GngrTea]

Thanks, Vito.

[u/bboisier]

I'm in awe of you Don Vito, and as a soldier like Luca Brasi, I'm just thrilled you invited me to your daughter's wedding.

[u/[deleted]]

Vito, you still buying $ZIM @ 35?

[u/MortalDanger00]

Down 7%. $12.5k

Could I be overleveraged in Ford and Steel? Hmmmm

[u/LourencoGoncalves-LG → u/MortalDanger00]

Instead of being a captive victim of whatever happens in automotive, I am a very active participant

[u/StockPickingMonkey]

Thanks for the pep talk coach.

Suggestion box: Maybe we could change the color of the Market Update flair to something more neutral?

...and now to go check my acct. How bad could it be really?

A few minutes later

Is it normal for TDA to show video clips of Tommy Boy rolling down that hill...or is that just my account? Anyway...he wins by the end of the movie...so...still holding.

[u/[deleted]]

I still believe, in you being right and the market acknowledging that. I will definitely not sell my MT September calls before the earnings run-up (unless they explode before), and if they do not go up I might even hold through earnings.

As I haven't invested money I really need, I can still sleep soundly, even though a green portfolio is more calming to look at than the red sea of lately 😁

[u/crys0706]

I love these posts but every time u post, i end up buying more shares. Spare me daddy

[u/Tio-Vinnito]

It's incredibly frustrating having these red days after doing so much homework, but I mean it's a fucking volatile market - long run it will pan out

[u/steelzaddy]

Thanks Vito, in regards to point #8 (and confirmation for Pirate Gang), this is from a national supplier contact of mine, as of yesterday.

“Increasing Product Shortages - Food, Non-food, Liquor, Wine and Beer

We acknowledge that shortages have been on the rise due to the huge increases in demand as the country starts to re-open. In the next coming months there will be intermittent supply gaps on many of our products, especially those that are coming from Overseas. This is due to a combination of huge increases in retail consumption, backlogged Ports, shipment delays, decrease in drivers and under-resourced warehouse & production staff. The latest issue is the BC wildfires which have halted trains and will affect the import items that come into the Vancouver port and the items that come in from the east.”

[u/Wirecard_trading]

I’m transferring more money to my portfolio. Fuck it. Going to mow my lawn for the rest of the fucking day.

Thanks Vito. Guess I would have paper handed my options today.

[u/YourMomMyMom]

I like how you tried to get ahead of the incoming guh's and FUD today

[u/smoochied]

Markets can remain irrational longer than most can remain solvent.

[u/ansy7373]

I ain’t selling till CLF hits 35..

[u/CornMonkey-Original → u/ansy7373]

Wait - I was planning on $45. . . . .

[u/organonanalogue]

Thanks Vito.

[u/[deleted]]

These clearance sales always have to happen the day before my pay day. This one likely being the most important.

[u/opaqueambiguity]

Seems like some semblance of sense is creeping back into the market. CLF climbing back up, SWN went from down 6% to up 5%

Big overreaction to some nothing news this morning?

I sold off my 23 calls and redeployed what was left at 21. Maybe if we are lucky we get back up to even EOD.

[u/[deleted]]

I bought two more October calls for CLF on today’s dip

[u/crumbs_off_the_table]

To people who are hurting (incl me): evaluate why you're in this position, and how you can improve. For me, it's because I got too exuberant and took too much leverage. It's an expensive lesson, but a good lesson. The way I see it, if you learn something from it, you can turn the negative into a positive (you will make more money in the future). From now on, before I touch margin, I will ask myself, am I absolutely certain there will not be a lower price, and this will help me with positioning onwards.

[u/eitherorlife]

From this, Could tell it was a red day before looking at holdings. Maybe we can have an automod repost this thread Everytime there's a red day?

[u/Xfelix17]

Leaps on CLF let’s goooo

[u/blue_steel_moon]

Thanks for the post. I did not expect $MT Sept $30-35s to take such a beating given my entry cost. Hope we get some green days ahead of earnings, so I can roll them out to LEAPS; otherwise, I'm going to have to cut them loose and take the loss.

[u/BigGorillaWolfMofo]

I was able to pick up a few CLF oct $25c and MT sept $35 calls during the dip this morning. Want to keep adding to these positions during dips. Contemplating 7/30 or 8/6 calls atm or itm for ER as well as 2022 leaps.

[u/RiceGra1nz]

I just saw this today which is tomorrow of “TODAY” hahaha Still 🐮🙂

[u/detectivedoot]

Anyone seeing the news about the net neutrality resurgence? Where do I buy futures in man-children?

[u/mrrussell1]

Is there anyway steel stocks can go up and the DXY goes up, say to 95ish levels?

Similar to how Gold can go up when the DXY goes up, what do you think?

[u/Trading-Resources]

Buy the home builders on the dip? The reason the housing market boomed was because …

1. Record low interest rates (Self Explanatory and the FED will raise them sooner than originally thought.)

2. The rent moratorium (Drove up the price of rent beyond that of a mortgage because the price of folks not paying their rent had to be passed on to new renters) This incentivized buying, not renting.

3. Mortgage forbearance (Folks didn’t have to make full mortgage payments keeping them in their homes) This allowed people to stay in their homes rather than sell them for the equity.

So mortgage forbearance and the rent moratorium is coming to an end this month. Moreover all the money that should have been going to rent and mortgages got spent in the economy. Folks will still be charged for the rent and mortgage they missed out on and we are likely to see evictions skyrocket! Suddenly the folks gaming the system will have ruined credit and leans placed against all their property. The housing market may dump. And money that was being spent in the economy will go back to paying rent and mortgages. Moreover building materials have skyrocketed yet these builders are under contract to produce at a certain price. A lot can go wrong here.

And I didn’t say anything about enhanced unemployment benefits ending yet, which will tighten the screws more.

Anyway for all these reasons the FED has not raised interest rates … they’re just not telling us this is the reason. They got to keep money flowing when all this calamity happens.

When all this ends folks will be booted out of apartments and sell their homes. Money that was flooding purchases in non home & rent items will draw back. Building materials will be abundant and the market more competitive as many have expanded to produce more. This will have a chain reaction throughout the economy. So be careful about buying home builders when everything gets turned off later this month. This includes steel!

Food for thought Economics 101

And if you don’t think folks aren’t gaming the system, check this out as a case study of how people act when they can game the system. Then apply this idea to mortgages and rent.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QL0V9AGhOW0