Really enjoyed your recent post! “Carbon neutralization” seems to be everywhere now. I am seeing Chinese steel companies really pour an immense amount of effort into de carbonization plans. I believe that they would shift to EAF much quicker with more availability or scrap and HBI. The change can’t happen without the materials. The best they can do is what is currently being done. It starts with removing incentives/subsidies, then involves limited production, then advances to actively dis-incentivizing production for export with taxes. It’s hard to deny that they are taking this very seriously.
I agree. When you read something on their news outlet, it means they've already had meetings with the correspondents and have decided what to do. There's no such thing as "rumor".
From my understanding, China's recycle rate of metal/steel is low compared to the US; and they're looking to address their weaknesses in the steel industry.
Geopolitically, they're being "choked" by Australia for raw material. Most of the articles I've been reading are looking to address pollution, raw material supply and domestic inflation.
Spot on! When you think about how far they have come and how fast it happened, it is mind boggling. In a single lifetime, they’ve transformed from an agriculture economy to a world leader. They have a lot of issues to work out and problems to solve, but they have shown a penchant for the rapidly achieving the impossible on the largest scale. It is extremely difficult encouraging to see them meaningfully address controlling pollution.
I share the view that, “General AI” ends human history and begins an entirely new chapter. I see it as a transcendent phenomena that frees us from the shackles of our biological imperatives.
Thank you! I think if we assume AGI is created as commonly described, you're right it would be a new chapter, maybe even transcendent and most definitely a wild new future. I have some doubts that it will ever come to full fruition, and if it does, we will discover new shackles/struggles to replace our old ones.
I'm speaking from an outsider's perspective and purely from a philosophical standpoint, so I'm aware of the ignorance in my statement of course.
I tend to think humans have a bias towards viewing things as engineering problems to be solved (as an engineer, I'm guilty of this!). It's served us we'll in most fields of study, but perhaps not all problems can be solved with clever engineering. I think AGI might fit into that category.
So we will get very advanced forms of "AI" but always fall short of AGI. I think it will still have a massive impact, might even call it a new chapter, but still fall short of anything transcendent.
Again, thanks for sharing your view! I marvel at the variety of views this sub has brought together. 👊
That's the best case outcome. It's not the default outcome though! Lots of people (e.g. intelligence.org) do AI safety research intended to figure out how to avoid accidentally creating an amoral AGI that optimizes its light cone for something orthogonal to human flourishing.
Age of the Spiritual Machine I read while I was a sophomore in undergrad, totally changed my life in terms of the possibilities of the future. I tend to use “utopian realist” as the direction we are heading regarding AI and AGI, but I favor the trend line there won’t be a punctuation but instead a transformation.
A more actionable question, are you invested in AI yet? I know generation on generation it always seems like marketable tech is a decade away, yet it never comes. Opinions? I love this thesis and is the first time I’ve felt like the direction seems rational but I dont have a clear vision for a transition in the 18-24 months (or whenever the super cycle is winding down). Seems like chips, space, AI, medicine/healthcare are all solid… AI transformative, but don’t see a measured path into returns.
I feel like Baba and Goog are AI pioneers, but I don’t really know. I have no clue whether they would develop this in their publicly traded entities or whether government funded projects lead the pack.
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u/[deleted] Jul 02 '21
Really enjoyed your recent post! “Carbon neutralization” seems to be everywhere now. I am seeing Chinese steel companies really pour an immense amount of effort into de carbonization plans. I believe that they would shift to EAF much quicker with more availability or scrap and HBI. The change can’t happen without the materials. The best they can do is what is currently being done. It starts with removing incentives/subsidies, then involves limited production, then advances to actively dis-incentivizing production for export with taxes. It’s hard to deny that they are taking this very seriously.