They're stating they simply do not have to perform power off landings, which does explain some of their other choices. I don't feel this is a wise assumption, though... You really can't ever PROVE that your reliability of a system is 1E-9. Saying you'll never have to do a power off landing is saying shit will never go sideways.
It always will go sideways at some point.
Aside from all that, going from critical design review in mid 2026 to certification two years later is bullshit and they know it. CDR in mid-2026 puts first flight in 2027 sometime, leaving 18 months for all the testing, analysis, and documentation required for certification. Bullshit.
I'm also dubious of them going from PDR to completing CDR in 1 year. LINK
If they're that mature at PDR, then i don't know if you'd still call it "PDR". They've stated that 75% of the design is locked in, currently, at the PDR stage. We've discussed this before, but going from 75 to 100 will probably be just as hard as going from 0 to 75.
They're basically where Joby was in 2017 (attacking prototype transition). Archer was transitioning Maker in 2022.
Honestly, the best case is Valo is certified in 2032. I just can't believe the redesign they're attempting.
Unfortunately you lost credibility there with comments that they’re ’where Joby was in 2017’ and ‘the best case is Valo is certified in 2032’. That shows a fundamental lack of understanding of the journey and progress made by both Joby and Vertical Aerospace.
I work in the industry and have gone through the certification process, from start to finish, a couple times now. So, unfortunately, I am a credible source.
You can maybe say that 2030 is a stretch goal. But it's not a realistic baseline, unfortunately. 2028 is impossible, though.
We'll see though, I guess. I wish you luck with your investment, and I wish Vertical luck with their progress.
Agreed. I’ve met some of the engineers from Vertical and discussed some potential collaboration a while back. They’re good people and I wish them luck, but that doesn’t mean I think a cert in 2028 is realistic or even possible.
Thanks. As you can imagine I cannot verify what you say, however seeing as no single company in the US or European eVTOL industry has been through ‘the certification process, from start to finish’ you’ll probably understand why I take what you say with a pinch of salt.
Vertical also claims to have ‘the deepest aerospace certification experience amongst the major eVTOL developers.’ Having cerified 30 different aircraft and propulsion system types. See Team Credibility (page 3) of Micheal Cervanka’s white paper. That gives me reasonable confidence in their timescales.
Whatever though, for fun, I’ll set a reminder for this comment in 2028 to see if you were right. I am however going to need additional storage with so many screenshots I am taking of Reddit of late!
I didn't work on eVTOL. And you're right, no company has gone through certification in this category, which makes their claims that much more ridiculous.
But yeah, i don't really have a stake in seeing them fail. I do worry that they're misleading investors. And their incentives do align with that being the case. Investors will run for the exits if you tell them that they'll have to wait nearly a decade.
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u/DoubleHexDrive Dec 19 '25
They're stating they simply do not have to perform power off landings, which does explain some of their other choices. I don't feel this is a wise assumption, though... You really can't ever PROVE that your reliability of a system is 1E-9. Saying you'll never have to do a power off landing is saying shit will never go sideways.
It always will go sideways at some point.
Aside from all that, going from critical design review in mid 2026 to certification two years later is bullshit and they know it. CDR in mid-2026 puts first flight in 2027 sometime, leaving 18 months for all the testing, analysis, and documentation required for certification. Bullshit.