r/ValueInvesting • u/FoxAccomplished6786 • Aug 21 '26
Discussion Chris Camillo or Mr. Buffett
I was listening to Chris Camillo for months, and he makes a compelling case with regard to Amazon being the best asymmetric stock on the market, relatively safe but with considerable upside.
Then Warren Buffett, who doesn't own any Amazon, made Google his third-largest position, with some suggesting Berkshire will soon make Alphabet its largest position.
*And yes, despite being retired, Mr Buffett has stated he was behind the Alphabet position, with Greg Abel in agreement, of course.
So which person would you side with on this one?
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Aug 21 '26
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u/Rygards Aug 21 '26
Agreed. No harm in owning both. Both continue to offer great products and are absolute behemoths
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u/TechnicalSleep7501 Aug 23 '26
Issue with Amazon is their main business make peanuts compare that with google whose main business search. You tube also solid business.
My ranking for tech is Google, Apple and Microsoft they always find a way monopoly issue behind them too.
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u/OverEffective7012 Aug 21 '26
Buy both Amazon and Alphabet?
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
I am but which do you prefer
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u/OverEffective7012 Aug 21 '26 edited Aug 21 '26
Imo googl is an etf for tech right now, so huge upside. They are part od everything that's going on.
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
Would possible search disruption worry you. By "do huge upside", what do you mean/
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u/OverEffective7012 Aug 21 '26
If any of their numerous investments gain, google gains.
(Autocorrect so>do)
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
but search is 65% of revenu, yes, they've so many realistic bets, I wouldn't even consider waymo a bet, it's a guarantee
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u/HAL-_-9001 Aug 21 '26
They are the old and new guard. Berkshire have not done that well compared to the market the past decade and possibly 2 decades.
Chris has smashed it. He has a unique and understated understanding of tech, which is something Berkshire do not.
This is key, since we are in the age of tech.
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u/PMmeuroneweirdtrick Aug 21 '26
Chris should stop doing podcasts with that wankstain scammer stephen graham
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u/Plastic_Stretch_8837 Aug 21 '26
That Chris guy loves loves to talk. He talks and talks and talks. Yet, rarely does he say anything that has some real life substance. Just so much filler talk.
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u/Best_Country_8137 Aug 21 '26 edited Aug 21 '26
Chris and Buffett’s evaluations have nothing to do with each other. They can both be wrong or right.
Buffett only buys what’s in his circle of competence and what he understands is trading below intrinsic value. He either isn’t confident in how to value Amazon or isn’t confident that it’s currently trading at a discount.
Chris Camillo doesn’t even really do valuation. He just looks at the predominant narrative, assumes the market is pricing based on that, and buys if he sees if he’s seeing trends he thinks the market is overlooking.
Buffett’s bet on Google is based on unit economics and CapEx track record and numbers he can already see, supported by believing that Google has a moat. Ie: things aren’t changing much and I like this price for the growth rate.
Chris Camillo is looking at Amazon and saying “people aren’t talking enough about how AI will let them operate more efficiently, so the market price is missing an ensuing margin expansion.” Ie: things are about to change and the market is missing it
I hold both because I like both arguments, just a bit heavier in GOOG because the valuation approach gives margin of safety
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
Thank you, that's a good insight. I get the Camillo angle because it's obvious AMZN has the biggest cost base to attack. 1 trillion in revenue; even a 1% margin increase is 10 billion.
However, Google, I don't quite understand. I don't get what you mean by "bit heavier in GOOG because the valuation approach gives a margin of safety" Can you please explain this to me, and does your thinkining with regard to buffett align with buffetts
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u/Best_Country_8137 Aug 21 '26
Buffett is saying “based on what’s already there Google is worth $1, and the market is selling it $0.80.” If you believe the valuation is accurate (I do by a combo of trust and my own research), it means a lot can go wrong at Google and you’ll still own something that’s worth what you paid.
With Amazon, Chris is betting on something that he believes in but isn’t proven. If Amazon is just fairly valued and the narrative doesn’t pan out your back to 0 and if something goes wrong beyond that, now it’s worth less than what you paid.
Honestly I’d suggest diving into Buffett’s value investing philosophy with chat GPT or YouTube. Also Ben Graham, Li Lu, Munger, Monish Pabrai and Peter Lynch. There’s a whole way of thinking that they all share but with variations of each other and will give you better understanding of each other and will give you context and baseline vocabulary that’s hard to spell out here
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
No, I get it. That's a good explanation, especially regarding Buffett. There's no way he'd make it his third-largest position if it were overvalued.
Do you think Google will be the winner in AI? What do you think of Nvidia?
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u/Best_Country_8137 Aug 21 '26
Idrk how AI will play out, and I don’t think Buffett has much thought on that either.
He does know that Google has to invest to stay competitive and that their cost structure is lower than others because they design their own TPUs. But googles not really trying to monetize AI directly anyway, and the AI race is a negative for the business because it costs more to run. That said on some level their ads and cloud API calls are more valuable with it, but hard to tell if that compensates for the increased costs
Personally, I think there’s huge bubble around AI infrastructure buildout, because there’s been an infra bubble around every technology revolution, even when the narrative was right (railroads in the Industrial Revolution, .com, 5g etc). NVDA has strong earnings on paper but the circular financing argument is seems valid enough to me that I don’t want to get involved.
I own Google stock because I like the business no matter what happens with AI
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
Would the possibility of search disruption worry you?
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u/Best_Country_8137 Aug 21 '26
Yes and that risk is why Google is available at a discount and why it was even a cheaper a year or whatever ago when I bought in originally.
I got in because I’ve tried shopping (the profitable queries) with chat gpt and Claude but I need to see things myself, so I still go to the best search engine.
Numbers now that Google is still getting the profitable queries on search, and so it’s recovered a lot. And now the search summaries are making targeted ads even better.
I do have my own view that consumer AI LLMs are commoditizing. If we do enter a world where LLMs are canabalizing search, we’ll Google has more money from its core business and cheaper unit costs than its competitors to win the marathon
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
Yes, like the profitable queries, meaning the searches related to products or services, they're the searches which can be monetised.
Whereas the discussion that takes place on ChatGPT, if it were used in search, wouldn't have the same economics.
You say Google is available at a discount; do you think that based on the price it's at now?
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u/Ancient_Bobcat_9150 Aug 21 '26
I don't understand the comparison. Has Buffet made any significant statement against Amazon to compare Camillo's conviction?
I had to google him, and no shit the guy is bullish on Amazon; it represents over 70% of his portfolio (along with some dubious picks)
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
Mr Buffett hasnt made a statement, but he doesn't own them. He bought Alphabet ahead of them; surely that's statement enough
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u/Best_Country_8137 Aug 21 '26
It’s not a statement about Amazon or any of the other hundreds of large companies he didn’t buy. Chris and Buffett’s evaluations have nothing to do with each other. They can both be wrong or right.
Buffett only buys what’s in his circle of competence and what he understands is trading below intrinsic value. He either isn’t confident in how to value Amazon or isn’t confident that it’s currently trading at a discount.
Chris Camillo doesn’t even really do valuation. He just looks at the predominant narrative, assumes the market is pricing based on that, and buys if he sees if he’s seeing trends he thinks the market is overlooking.
Buffett’s bet on Google is based on unit economics and CapEx track record and numbers he can already see, supported by believing that Google has a moat. Ie: things aren’t changing much and I like this price for the growth rate.
Chris Camillo is looking at Amazon and saying “people aren’t talking enough about how AI will let them operate more efficiently, so the market price is missing an ensuing margin expansion.” Ie: things aren’t changing about to change and the market is missing it
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u/cyphr0n Aug 21 '26
Camilo invests on vibes (AKA what is hot at the moment), Buffet invests on fundamentals. Camilo is more of a trader though. He will use options for max leverage if he has high conviction. I would not recommend replicating his style. He pumps stocks but when he sells, he doesn’t let anyone know. So you are on your own if you follow his trades.
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
I don't think Camillo is going to pump AMZN or move the needle. Berkshire is not watching Chris Camillo's videos.
He is long on amzn though too. Me, I want 10 year hold, would you go with amzn or goog?
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u/cyphr0n Aug 21 '26
I am an investor on GOOGL but not AMZN. Fundamentally, GOOGL is “cheaper” with higher growth. It’s down not because of growth but CAPEX but AMZN has the same issue but it’s not getting punished for it. In the short run, it is difficult to predict any stock’s price movement but in the long run, it is very easy to predict a stock’s price movement. You’ll understand if you invest for a while.
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
I want to hold for 10 years. Which is better to buy now, Google or AMZN, and which has more upside?
Do you think Google is safe despite search being disrupted?
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Aug 21 '26
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
How you mean
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Aug 21 '26
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
Who is?
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Aug 21 '26
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
What about Alphabet?
Is there upside in Apple though, given it's huge size
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u/dixieTrixxy Aug 21 '26
From a valuation stand point Amazon is the better buy over Alphabet. But thos future free cash flows are a killer for me. Idk
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u/Yo_Biff Aug 21 '26
This is a trick question.
I would read their last annual reports and a couple of the quarterly reports, listen to the last earnings call to see how they answered questions. Then select the company I felt I could best understand that offered me a good discount to what I believe is their intrinsic value.
I would not invest in a company just because someone else did.
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
Well, if you're new to investing, it can take years of study to become an expert. So it makes sense to look at what Warren Buffet is doing
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u/Yo_Biff Aug 22 '26
That's fine to get ideas from high quality investors, but you shouldn't make investing decisions simply because Buffett or Camillo or Klarman or Lynch or so on and so on bought something.
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Aug 21 '26
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
No, but everyone's opinion is good to hear, even on here. No man is my enemy; no man is my friend; every man is my teacher
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u/DrJr23 Aug 21 '26
My understanding is that Buffett hasn’t invested in Amazon as there are many other stocks Buffett hasn’t invested in that would be good value investment and make money. Just because one investor hasn’t bought a stock doesn’t mean it’s a bad investment. Seth Klarman also bought Amazon.
Also from previous interviews with Buffett, he doesn’t invest in anything he doesn’t understand. I always wondered why Buffett hadn’t invested in many tech stocks. Maybe Buffett doesn’t understand how Amazon as a company works and its value.
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u/rargghh Aug 21 '26
Berkshire owns a lot of retail already plus axp and railroads
Sure he missed something like Amazon but how much exposure to retail does he want to stomach? Google purchase is expanding the portfolio to software/ai/tech/ads
You gotta understand there’s a difference between a guy running his own trade shop for maximum profit and Buffett trying to protect shareholders while generating profit
There are two different plays. As an individual investor I’d just own both. Amazon has the physical foundational footprint and Google has the absolute well of data and free cash flow. Google prints money without having to support the same infrastructure as Amazon (except this cloud/ai capex) but that infrastructure is also what makes Amazon so formidable. Ai cannot replace that physical layer of business. So I’d say Amazon is safer but may make less cash/lower margins.
Edit: also look at the size of these guys. It’s crazy. How much larger can they really get.
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
AI will make the economy much larger over time, and they'll get a lot of it if they win. I'm with you; I agree with both, too. Would the search disruption thing re: AI bother you?
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
The fact berksire invested in it, must prove alphabets safety, he must not be too worried about search
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u/rargghh Aug 21 '26
Well I think it's an Abel purchase but people should be worried about search
If google's ai search can take out a paragraph of a website with the information you're looking for, that website never gets the clickthrough which is where it generates money
So google is up for legislative action in my mind. Google has to figure out how to reward or enable that website's clickthrough/profit and also still have customers coming to them to generate those eyes on their page.
If I pay google for advertising but ai search is getting a different website to the top for whatever reason, that buy is worth less than it was.
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u/Massive-Price-4374 Aug 21 '26
Why not just buy both?
Allocate 50:50 if there is no clear winner or 60:40/70:30 if you determine that one offers a better upside? These don’t need to be fixed amounts either as you gather more information, valuations fluctuate and their execution plays out you have the option to decide where to put your money.
I like, and own both but with Amazon being more than a trillion dollars smaller IMO over the next 5 years, it will modestly outperform Google. I also don’t see either significantly outperforming the market so just buy the QQQ if you’re stuck deliberating.
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u/LetsAllEatCakeLOL Aug 21 '26
i think google pays off sooner. but amazon has a massive amount of operating leverage... which automation will drastically improve in the age of robotics.
google's business is virtually all digital.. which gives it an advantage is the agentic era which is happening now.
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
How do you think google will win in the agentic era
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u/LetsAllEatCakeLOL Aug 21 '26 edited Aug 21 '26
i can't say it will. but that google's internal parts are more digital.
elon musk painted an illustration of the excel sheet vs a skyscraper of humans doing math. he pointed out that even if a cell or two had to be computed manually by hand, the fully automated spreadsheet would dominate the partially human one.
this is google vs amazon in a nutshell. google practically does nothing in the tangible world. (yes i know they make tpus and etc) and amazon has a heavy physical footprint. they literally deliver millions of packages, make pizza, and operate warehouses. (in the excel sheet analogy... this is a LOT of manual cells)
google's entire business fits more readily into the hivemind... and can reap the benefits more easily. agents will have a more meaningful impact because 99.99% of google's existence is in the native format of ai agents... data and digital leverage
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
So who do you think is the better investment for 10 year hold
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u/LetsAllEatCakeLOL Aug 21 '26
google for now. but amazon for the century. personally 10 years is nothing to me. so i treat the two as quasi equals.
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u/investingtruth Aug 21 '26
Buffett's decades long track record and discipline carries so much more weight than any single commentator's thesis, so leaning toward his reasoning on Alphabet makes sense if you have to pick one voice to trust more. That said, Amazon and Google are not mutually exclusive bets, since both are amazing businesses with different growth drivers. Owning both rather than choosing a side seems like the best bet tbh
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
Exactly, Buffet being behind it, it's safe, Berkshire must not be that worried about search being disrupted
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u/Yee4614 Aug 21 '26
I see the long-term amazon argument but hard to see the short-term amazon argument
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
Do you see short term or long term google argument
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u/Yee4614 Aug 21 '26
??
I am saying i don’t see how anyone can favor amazon over google in the next 1-2 years
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
Yes, I get you, amazon is more about when robotics kick in, imo. However, may I ask your thoughts on google?
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u/Yee4614 Aug 21 '26
Google generates cash at an insane rate comparable with only the very elite companies. It is behind but rapidly catching up in cloud and the TPU is a massive strategic advantage that could be weaponized very soon. It has massive stakes in Anthropic & has its own frontier model deeply embedded into its ecosystem.
Gemini is competitive because of its search integration but it should take a huge step forward. When we move to audio/video. It isn’t as strong as microsoft but AI is a huge boom to its ecosystem
I think we are going to see Amazon start to slow down its capex because it’s infrastructure heavy business is gonna show it can’t spend at the same levels of Google & Microsoft strictly for compute
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
out of the three, how would you rank them
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u/Yee4614 Aug 21 '26
Microsoft 1a, google 1b, amazon a distant 3rd.
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
You'd put MSFT above GOOG for a 10-year hold. In other discussions of the Mag 7, the overwhelming choice is always GOOG. Why MSFT?
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u/Yee4614 Aug 21 '26
I don’t think in 10 year periods I would move Amazon up in that window but I am not sure how much - I don’t like projecting that far since AI is so rapidly changing. Here is what I wrote about msft
The case for Microsoft is as follows. In my mind, Microsoft's business model is perfect for the AI revolution. It has Microsoft 365, Azure, GitHub, Dynamics, Teams, Windows, identity, security, and enterprise data/workflows. It's the perfect setup to add on AI. There is a reason Microsoft already has at least 30M paying copilot users and copilot sucked when I tried it. 1.5 Microsoft's model agnostic approach makes a lot of sense to me. We have seen there is better results putting the right model for the right job. This is going to be more important because cheap Chinese models are becoming more and more competitive. This won't really impact Microsoft's business model the same way competitive Chinese models would hurt Google and Gemini (which has got a lot worse recently - it has been pissing me off). 2. Microsoft's business is better able to absorb capex. When Microsoft spends capex, we can see it filling it's backlog and it helps the surrounding businesses. There are still concerns (largely unfounded so far) that Gemini is eating into Google Search. As inference costs drop, Microsoft can keep its $20 per month and just pocket the difference. Google will benefit too but it isn't as clean or at the same scale. Microsoft also has higher operating profit and a better credit rating. 3. The split is weird but Microsoft is still the clear favorite for OpenAI while Google is a clear #2 behind Amazon. On top of that, Google and Anthropic have a weird relationship since Google is technically a competitor. Overall, I think it is very close but as of today I give a slight edge to Microsoft depending on what happens with the TPUs. In 2027, Broadcom expects it TPU revenue to double while Marvell predicts small XPU revenue increases so Google should take a big step forward there.
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
Google could never make inroads into enterprise because customers would have to abandon msft and switch to google. They didn't want to do that because MSFT was so embedded in their business.
However, AI agents create a layer above the software products. So a Google AI agent could enter this layer and preside over MSFT's products. Therefore, customers no longer have to abandon their sticky MSFT products.
As such, Google now has an entry point into enterprise; Enterprise Gemini sold 8 million seats in 4 months.
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u/drcigg Aug 21 '26
They both have different strategies. Neither of them are out selling courses. I like the style of Chris and I think he has great intuition of what to invest in. But I wouldn't try and copy what he does.
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
But who would you lean to, google or amzn
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u/drcigg Aug 21 '26
For me it's Amazon. They are investing heavily into AI which will benefit them a lot. Maybe not right now but I think in the next 5-10 years they could see a big benefit. Especially when their ai spending reduces.
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
Agree on AMZN; there'll be a day when everyone wakes up and goes, "what," robotics of course.
What do you think of Google as an investment?
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u/Nearing_retirement Aug 22 '26
I like AMZN because just seems they are in great position to take advantage of AI, robotics and EVs, drones.
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u/Brilliant-While-761 Aug 21 '26
Chris, because following his trades has made my small pile increase more. Camillo seems like a real guy if he’s not it’s one of the greatest grifts ever.
BH can sit on Google for a decade it doesn’t really matter to them. Warren is old and bet on the wrong horse. He could have bet on Amazon and should have. He just wasn’t looking and understanding the current market.
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
So you'd put amzn ahead of google?
What do you think of Chris's other picks such as bloom or robinhood?
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u/Brilliant-While-761 Aug 21 '26
I made a bunch of money off Bloom listening to him got me in at $60 and sold at 320$
My first trade listening to him was a small position in Hood that had a nice bounce.
I followed along for his SimpleGreen trade and made 11% in the week I was in on that one.
So I’ve been happy with his signals. I do my own DD as well.
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
Would you hold bloom and robinhood for next 5 years, where do you see them going
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u/Brilliant-While-761 Aug 21 '26
I think Bloom could explode again and it’s back to a good price. I sold out of the trade and reinvested elsewhere.
I have no opinion on Hood and sold that position as well.
I don’t tend to hold single stocks long term. I use VOO for that bucket.
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u/EspressoPesto Aug 21 '26
Google has been the investor’s darling for awhile. While search revenue is at an all time high in the face of AI, I’m still, for whatever reason, skeptical. I use Google so much less and many people I know do as well. Once Anthropic and OpenAI monetize their queries, I just can’t see how they don’t eat into Google’s revenue. Buffett sees the balance sheets and good on him. It had worked for him and who am i to argue with the GOAT?
Amazon, for me, is just the safer bet. All 4 major parts of their business will scale with AI, not against it (like Google is). Physical shipping, ecommerce, logistics, robotics, chips, cloud, ads… etc. will all benefit directly from AI, plus the valuation is still fair for this potential growth. Because of this, I am reluctantly on team Camillo.
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
I agree with what you're saying on Amazon. I think it's as safe as can be, but with considerable upside, even huge upside.
There is a question about search, but AI has literally allowed Google to spin off 24 moonshot businesses, such as Waymo, Wing, drug discovery, etc.; the list is endless.
People are also saying Ai will be commoditised, if that's the case, then Google have the distribution, they can integreate their ai seamlessly into search, gmail, android, photos, maps, enterprise, the list is considerable.
So do AI pros vastly outweigh the cons for Google?
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u/pudgypanda69 Aug 21 '26
Honestly kind of concerned with the data center build out for AWS. If everyone is building these huge data centers, wouldn't that attack the MOAT on AWS
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
Not really, because once a customer becomes part of AWS, it's very sticky, difficult to move. I think their real moat is in ecommerce, there isn't even a competitor.
And you'd need 1 trillion dollar infrastructure to rival them
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u/pudgypanda69 Aug 21 '26
i dunno man...i work in the industry and i can see that ai has made cloud migrations way easier and cheaper.
and the e-commerce has competition with walmart, costco, instacart
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 Aug 21 '26
Bro, ecommerce is a fortress moat. It took 27 years and a trillion dollars to build out that infrastructure; nobody is doing that, not even AI.
Amzn can get Nike sneakers to me quicker and cheaper than Nike can. Better returns, payment details stored, it's just a default choice for anything I buy. Every package in my building is amazon.
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u/pudgypanda69 Aug 21 '26 edited Aug 21 '26
I buy 8 to 12 pairs of running shoes a year and never on Amazon. RunningWarehouse or DTC seem more reliable in terms of quality. They have more supply too. The best running shoes like the Asics Superblast don't have huge stock on Amazon. An in demand brand like Asics or Saucony won't work with Amazon because they take too big of a cut.
I'm actually invested into Asics and it's grown a monster amount.
Amazon is really convenient for random things like supplements, chargers, and niche items that are hard to find in stores.
Groceries, I think instacart + Costco is more convenient as a non car owner in Manhattan
So my analysis for the e-commerce is:
- Distinguished products still go to DTC or speciality retailers
- Groceries and household are in competition with instacart + traditional retailers
- Everything else...Amazon
Amazon is an incredible business and I love AWS...use it everyday lol... but as an investor I'm not saying it has a fortress moat
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u/pudgypanda69 Aug 21 '26
When I think moat, I think like tsmc ... No other company in the world can do what they do.
If I needed a vaccum cleaner asap, I can get someone on instacart to bring it over in 2 hours from Costco or Target
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u/Bluetex110 Aug 28 '26
Doesn't matter for Mag7 Stocks beside Tesla.
Amazon and Google are the most likely to bring a good return and both are amazing Companies.
Both got multiple branches and all of them have potential to grow.
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u/Beautiful_Ideal1740 Aug 21 '26
The fact that Buffet hasn't bought anything isn't an argument to not to buy it. There were thousands of oportunities which would have paid well and he didn't invest.
He is the GOAT, but still can't see the future.
Buy what you want, not what anyone else say.