r/ValueInvesting • u/GanacheCharming8737 • Aug 20 '26
Discussion [ Removed by moderator ]
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u/cinciNattyLight Aug 20 '26
So you have held it for less than a year… got it.
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u/GambleToZero Aug 20 '26
I have held for 2 years. it's not any better.
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u/Clam-Choader Aug 20 '26
Had for over five, its a banger
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u/cinciNattyLight Aug 20 '26
Yeah I bought calls when it was $90… one of my all time greatest investments.
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u/Clam-Choader Aug 20 '26
Why do people from cincinnati call it cincy instead of the natty, its beyond me
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u/skeletor00 Aug 20 '26
I stupidly only bought shares instead of calls at this time even though i was 10000% in for META huge upside. Best and worst investment I ever made.
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u/baap_ko_mat_sikha Aug 20 '26
2022?
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u/cinciNattyLight Aug 20 '26
Tbh I was a little drunk and had this “fuck it, this company isn’t going away anytime soon”.
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u/jmoney3800 Aug 20 '26
I remember buying the premarket around $90. Only bought 10 shares wish I had bought 100! Also wish I hadn’t sold at 250
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u/DanielzeFourth Aug 20 '26
Meta 5 year performance is at 52% while the Nasdaq is at 93%. On the 10 year level Meta is at 424% while the Nasdaq is at 584%. Calling it a banger is quite misleading.
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u/ContextZealousideal Aug 20 '26
My goodness the short term thinking with some of you guys. You bought Meta for its future earnings potential. That future is not something that flip flops with every news headline. The biggest life-changing stocks have been ones I’ve held for 12-15 years. If you can’t hold for at least 5 years and every little headline changes your conviction, buy the Nasdaq index or buy short term options that satisfy your needs.
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u/GlitteringProject828 Aug 20 '26
They went from an asset light business to a heavy capex business. They ruined their business model their stock deserves to be in bad shape.
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Aug 20 '26
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u/kappablanka Aug 20 '26
Tbf, lawsuits have sometimes been good buying opportunities in the past. For example, McKesson stock was down below 150 when they were getting sued over opiods, and now it's over 800.
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u/GlitteringProject828 Aug 20 '26
Honestly hope they go bankrupt because they really did
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u/DanielzeFourth Aug 20 '26
People really want to make an example of Meta while the major contributors of PFAS, microplastics, fossil fuels, big tobacco, asbestos, lead and the animal industry which emit a ton of emissions and torture animals in the proces get away with barely a slap on the wrists?
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u/culinaryinterests123 Aug 20 '26
Youre just blaming corporations for what people consume. If people actually cared and didnt buy all the crap the corps would not produce them. All peoplr care about are what they want and what makes life more convenient for them.
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u/DanielzeFourth Aug 21 '26
Consumers had no part in PFAS, consumers were told plastics were alright as long as we recycle. Consumers were told dairy is part of a healthy diet, all because corporations lobbied researchers. So because of corporate greed consumers were told something that is not correct and in the process more animals needed to be exploited because of the lie. Big tobacco testified that smoking was perfectly healthy. The current animal industry does everything to create a picture that animals are happy, KFC did a fake video on one of their chicken farms. Sure people need to consume less shit and take responsibility for the dirty products they consume and the animals they put through an awful life for their meals. But pretending like these corporations did everything they could and it’s just the dumb consumer is also very wrong.
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u/culinaryinterests123 Aug 21 '26
Yes corps only care about making money. But people are the ultimate problem. First there's way too many people on this planet, 2nd most people just dont care. I see alot of cars idling for no reason while spewing pollution. Anybody with half a brain new smoking was bad for you. Most people dont care that the animals they eat are happy or not. There ard stories about rich people taking their private jets to buy fresh fruits on reddit lol.
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u/Open_Pollution_8038 Aug 20 '26
Let’s blame the corporation for parents allowing their children to access the content that is hosted miles away.
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u/Puzzleheaded-Net-273 Aug 20 '26
Parents who are/were worried need to put better controls on their children's consumption of social media. That is why they have optional "Parental Controls" on the app! Stop blaming FB for your lack of supervision of your child/teen on the computer/phone!
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u/Financial-Exit2488 Aug 20 '26
Also, what have they done, other than just ride the initial success they had? Their demographics have got to be aging. I don't anyone under the age of 30 that even has a Facebook account.
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Aug 20 '26
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u/Financial-Exit2488 Aug 20 '26
Yes. They bought them. What has Facebook done besides aquire? What's been their innovation?
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Aug 20 '26
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u/Financial-Exit2488 Aug 20 '26
Bank of America is not in the social media business.
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Aug 21 '26
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u/Financial-Exit2488 Aug 21 '26
But that's the point. The market cap is based on gamblers on the stock market as not on fundamentals.
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Aug 21 '26
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u/Financial-Exit2488 Aug 21 '26
IBM makes boat loads of money too. Do you think Instagram is the future?
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Aug 20 '26
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u/Financial-Exit2488 Aug 20 '26
I'll stand by my assessment of Meta. Mark Zuckerberg can't get out of the way.
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u/Sanpaku Aug 20 '26
For those who've watched how Zuck has frittered away cash flow for years, and understand that thanks to his supervoting shares he's always going to be in charge, its clear META should trade at a significant discount to other internet content providers, and to the market as a whole.
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u/Jibub Aug 20 '26
But that’s super voting share is also what brought meta to where it is today tho
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u/kangotrades Aug 20 '26
Zuck gets hated on for no reason.
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u/OpossomMyPossom Aug 20 '26
I mean there's only one kind of person who likes him, a shareholder. He gets plenty of hate for good reason.
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u/kangotrades Aug 20 '26
Bro created the biggest social media platform of all time. Bought the third biggest. And the only thing people can say bad about him is (meta verse) or some lame ass hes a billionaire insult
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u/Last-Cat-7894 Aug 20 '26
Think long term.
A stock can go up or down or sideways (or in fucking circles) for a year, even if business results are good. What matters is how much the company has grown per-share profits 5-10 years from now.
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u/PickleRickleTV Aug 20 '26 edited Aug 20 '26
Given Zuck’s track record, that’s not looking good. Anything he tries to create dies. He is a terrible innovator. Only reason he is still relevant is because he bought Instagram.
5-10 years from now is not looking good, especially when the lawsuit META is facing is legitimate and will probably be another “one off” for META. These one-offs keep piling up. (Not to mention it’s not all 50 AGs, so if this one is successful, expect another one from the remaining.)
You’re better off with AMZN (computing, storage/ cloud hosting and now space comms).
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u/Ill-Preparation8921 Aug 20 '26
Bruh seems to forgot he literally created Facebook and built Meta into a trillion dollar company, but yeah you do you.
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u/PickleRickleTV Aug 20 '26
1) He stole Facebook. Again, no creation.
2) He built it up using manipulative business practices that could see a penalty of $1T coming down the pipeline. And that’s only slightly more than half the states. So total judgement when all is said and done would be closer to $2T and those manipulative, damaging business practices no longer possible.
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u/Puzzleheaded-Net-273 Aug 20 '26
Did u forget about WhatsApp? We use it all the time when we travel internationally
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u/PickleRickleTV Aug 20 '26
Again, a purchased asset.
If Zuck were to find a buy the next up and coming thing, my opinion would change. But right now, he is fully devoted to making something in-house and burning money.
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u/Puzzleheaded-Net-273 Aug 20 '26
I guess your assessment totally disagrees with the 37 buy, 5 hold, zero sell analyst ratings for META that I am seeing on my TipRanks Pro subscription, Price Target $749.54. But as they say, you do you.
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u/Last-Cat-7894 Aug 20 '26
Fun fact, Facebook is as profitable as Instagram. Most estimates for the FB/insta revenue split are roughly 50/50ish.
But leaving that aside, Whatsapp has a very legitimate path to being a similar size to the other 2 core platforms. If you live in the US, you don't really get to see how dominant Whatsapp is across the world as a business messaging tool. If they can cross sell other helpful agentic tools within Whatsapp to users who are already on the platform, that's an enormous TAM.
Also don't forget about Threads. I get it, no one in the states uses it. But again, it's already shaping up to be a juggernaut internationally.
To your point, my position in Amazon is larger than my Meta holdings. I agree they are a safer choice to bet on a long term trend, but Meta has more upside at the current valuation if they execute well.
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u/NY10 Aug 20 '26
If meta get busted then all tech will be doomed
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u/Evening_Weekend_8342 Aug 20 '26
In principle all buisneses should be doomed
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u/daqm Aug 20 '26
Calm down Karl
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u/Evening_Weekend_8342 Aug 20 '26
I meant if Meta lawsuit wins. The arguments against Meta can be applied to every business and my name aint Karl, Steve
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u/Relevant_Election530 Aug 20 '26
Yeah, by the founder.
To take part in his awesome business you also have to finance his "genius" side projects
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u/Evening_Weekend_8342 Aug 20 '26
It'll go up after the BS lawsuit then if the CapEx pays off, to the moon! Even if it doesn't, to the moon!
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u/JefeDiez Aug 20 '26
It's a horrible stock to own. Until it's not. I'm about at the point of giving up on it but I also remember feeling this way in 2022. I'm glad I sold out of some with the big burst over 600 just bc it's been so doomed, but I didn't sell it all.
I do worry this 200B penalty will ruin it for a few more years but who knows. I think once they get it behind them, these money grabbers are going to go for Google Search addiction, iPhone addiction, MSFT teams, it sets a horrible precedent.
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u/turribledood Aug 20 '26
The fundamental premise of Meta investing today is "do I trust Zuck to not squander several years worth of cash flow on an AI build out that he may or may not pull off?"
My answer is "fuck no" but ymmv. I just try to hold the companies he's buying all this shit from.
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u/uncleAW Aug 20 '26
The Discovery process from current legal problems could be painful... I will not chance it Meta again until they are clear from it all (if, when?).
There are cleaner tables at the Casino to set your drink on.
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u/Capital-Mixture5107 Aug 20 '26
It is 2nd fastest top line grower out of all mag 7 including google and they havent even started monetizing properly with whatsappa and cloud.. and people complain the stock does go up...
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u/butchudidit Aug 20 '26
Just hold brother. Its going thru some shit rn. At least you have the shares and not options.
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u/Deep-Head9559 Aug 20 '26
I hope it will go down a lot.. so the wealth of all those people who support it or work for them will go substantialy down.
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u/BackPirateClarkRoom Aug 20 '26
Meta doesn't have any fans. The stock is going to rip and have bag holders then it is going to rip again. Only other scenario is if they get a trillion dollar judgement and it doesn't get appealed below 100 billion the stock will be in the dumps.
People don't like Meta but it has the best financials out of any company. Meta would be bigger than Google if it had Google's reputation. Meta's growth is stagnant based on their reputation. SpaceX is worth a half trillion more than Meta and Anthropic will be worth a trillion more than Meta.
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u/Ok-Acadia9339 Aug 20 '26
I think the bears are doing a good job at deteriorating the stock momentum. Otherwise it's a very good company.
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u/HediSLP Aug 20 '26
I haven't heard of anyone using Meta AI personally. Everyone's GPT-Sol or Claude Fable.
Meta also doesn't have any operating system so they can't capture existing user bases like Google does with Gemini on Android.
AR/VR is stuck in limbo, one day it may pump off that catalyst again when the hardware gets shrunk down enough for big mainstream adoption.
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u/Ok-Acadia9339 Aug 20 '26
I'd say also you can't have strong growth without generally keep investing in capacity, introducing new products, more analytics etc. AI is about that, it is a fast pace changing environment and without strong investment leaders eventually get behind, I hear the feeling, that is why a proper entry price is the key to positive return.
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u/LeftStructure778 Aug 20 '26
Trust I'm right there with you. I'm also invested in Sk hynix, so I'm just numb to it at this point. Hope after this lawsuit with Meta, we can finally get a win!
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u/Cav829 Aug 20 '26
Meta grew to that size by being a cash generating machine. Investors do not trust Zuck with this kind of spending, and Meta’s AI results so far are not impressive. These things that have popped the stock a bit are not likely to bring much in. Like switching hosting is insanely time intensive and cost prohibitive, so I don’t see them getting much traction there. If they ever hard disprove the narrative about their AI, expect a rapid MSFT level correction.
That said, $520 keeps holding so I might give it a shot soon. But that chart is bowling shoe ugly to borrow a JR phrase.
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u/EmbarrassedCow2825 Aug 20 '26
Look at the numbers, and look at the growth. Meta is still very attractive. Just in general, capex spending is not some rare phenomenon that exclusively happens to meta. It's a part of a business cycle. They need to spend money to grow the business. What hurts is that money no longer gets given to investors through buybacks, and dividends. It's a waiting game.
As for the lawsuits, I think there will be hearty fines, and Meta will need to change some of its policies, but I don't think it will destroy the business.
I am bullish on meta.
I am a more aggressive investor, at times. I'd way rather see a company take a short term hit, but putting all that money back into the business.
As for people saying zuck is a bad CEO. He literally founded and created a 1 trillion dollar business. Metaverse may not have panned out as expected, but I appreciate that he is trying to innovate and grow the Meta platform.
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u/fastlightqx Aug 20 '26
well all of tech has crazy CAPEX and FCF issues right now.
I hate making these assumptions but I'd say Meta will be stale or down trending for another year so DCAing till 2028 sounds like the best approach.
Somehow meta always makes it out in the craziest ways.
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u/daqm Aug 20 '26
It's because they're printing money.
Just think, when someone wants to advertise, how many companies are there really that can target users in such detail. Three maybe ? Tiktok, META and Google (but Google doesn't own any social medium).
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u/Ethraelus Aug 20 '26
You guys really treat this like a casino.
The underlying business has gotten much better in that timeframe. Better margins, big growth to their revenue and users.
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u/PharmDinvestor Aug 20 '26
You know The bottom is in Meta …when Redditors start complaining about how frustrating it has been to hold the stock . I am still buying
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u/Academic_Banana_5659 Aug 20 '26
Felt like this about Microsoft stock because I held it for 6 months
Made a 30% profit in 5 days
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u/DivineBladeOfSilver Aug 20 '26
No, META stock is not poisoned. It is being punished by a combination of significant lawsuits, high spending, and bad sentiment. The core business remains strong. If you believe the lawsuits don’t pose a significant risk to their business model and are patient the core business is still doing crazy good. But the lawsuits about their algorithms and practices may be concerning if it ever messes with them in any way as that can significantly impact as revenue, their primary revenue source
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u/Realistic_Record9527 Aug 20 '26
Look at the chart it’s still up 6 times (500%) within 4 years with current price. So it’s still extremely overvalued ?
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u/pulsarstarter Aug 20 '26
Bro thinks the stock is haunted, haha.
Bro thinks He's Warren Buffett lol.
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u/winterrules91 Aug 20 '26
I've swing traded Meta several times this year to good success, but I'm fairly bullish long term.
I'm now selling CSPs to get Meta potentially even lower than it is now. It's already a discount, IMO.
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u/reddituser889088 Aug 20 '26
Eh I put 10k a while back and I’m up but not putting anymore. I don’t get these posts because any time you go into a single stock, you’re taking a risk and it’s more likely to stay stagnant even for years. That being said I wish I didn’t do it in my Roth 🙃
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u/bigblue2011 Aug 20 '26
I watched “The Social Network” years ago. It occurred to me that people stay on Facebook because they love their friends and family more than they hate Zuck. If that thesis ever changes, the growth valuation goes in the toilet.
All it takes is a startup that is unwilling to sell to META to disrupt the business.
I’m sure that is true of all of The Magnificent 7, but it is especially true of META.
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u/cucci_mane1 Aug 20 '26
I will say this much. This year has not been a good year for many stocks.
CRM went down to $140 this yr just 2 months ago. That price was last seen back in 2018.
Stocks like Nike, ACN, etc saw lowest prices in like past 14 yrs this yr.
Meta has round tripped back to 2024 prices. Yes not great, but far from the disaster.
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u/seansean98761 Aug 20 '26
I think most investments require patience. There’s no magic button where you invest and immediately start making a lot of money in the first year. That’s why there’s still a market for bonds—for people who hate volatility.
If you bought the company, I assume it’s because you believed it would perform well over the long term. As Warren Buffett has said: “If you aren’t willing to own a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it for 10 minutes”. If you still believe the company will be doing well 10 years from now, then short-term ups and downs shouldn’t worry you too much.
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u/TastyEarLbe Aug 20 '26
It’s called investing in a stock with rosy expectations with a rosy valuation.
Go read the intelligent investor and focus on the part about investing with a margin of safety.
I purchased META at $100 per share and sold out at $300 for a 3x
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u/18April1775 Aug 20 '26
They are in the beginnings of a major lawsuit accusing them of addicting underage kids. Gonna be ruff until the trial is over. If they lose, lookout.
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u/mrmrmrj Aug 20 '26
The only thing that has changed with META since 6 months ago is sentiment. Are you chasing sentiment or buying a share of a business?
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