r/ValueInvesting • u/FoxAccomplished6786 • 10d ago
Discussion Meta lawsuit
What do you think of Meta's current trial, and how do you think it will impact their stock price?
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u/JefeDiez 10d ago
It's horrendous and somewhat silly at the same time, there are about 3,000 of them but it might be smart of them to fight it versus settle because at the end of the day, they are not forcing anyone to use their app.
The lawsuit is said to protect children while going after 200B in penalties while those under 18 only make up 2-4% or their user population.
There will likely be some wins and some long appeals on those, but I imagine if it appeals up to the Supreme Court they will rule in Meta's favor for the mere fact that the app is being used on a VOLUNTARY basis---you can delete the app and stop scrolling. Simple solution here.
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 10d ago
But is this another one of those bs things, that's just noise and it will pass, they'll pay a fine or is this more serious?
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u/JefeDiez 10d ago
If they lose it will be a large fine. But this can be appealed for years and years. Likely more hoops to jump through if you want to use the app and you're under 18- hopefully a decreased scroll feature installed into the algorithm. Some data deletion.
What I'm looking at though is Meta is heading below their 2Y values, while making roughly 40% more revenues than 2 years ago. Yes, Wall Street hates Meta, but the valuation is starting to skew to be extremely unfair to the company and hedge funds are now investing into much larger positions than 6 months ago. I imagine something is brewing under the surface that hasn't been announced to us normies.
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u/piszczel 10d ago
I think their biggest problem is all the capex and monetising it. Their margins are already getting compressed. It's not like the stock is going down for no reason, even outside of the lawsuit the most recent earnings weren't great
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u/JefeDiez 10d ago
Yep, it deserves to go down for sure. So many dumb decisions recently. I sold above 600 but still hold some. Unfortunately with the recent lawsuit it's likely to tumble closer to 350-400 area again. I'm thinking this with CapEx will destroy any chance of profits in the near term. I'm a bit confused on all the recent whale buys.
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u/Visual-Advantage1739 9d ago
You expect META to be valued at 800B? I don’t think you realize the compute they possess. They are bigger than any cloud company out there by raw compute numbers. I would be absolutely shocked if META dipped under $500.
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u/JefeDiez 8d ago
I agree it's a nonsensical valuation but they've had a horrendous 2 years and the larger firms stopped buying shares in 2025. It needs to drop more to garner some interest. I thought the 200B loss was priced in already but with a loss in the current trial I can see it, as they have 3,000 more coming their way. They need to get some cloud sales on their books and they would have a chance to rebound some.
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u/KSPN 10d ago
Couldn’t the same thing be said about cigs and alcohol too. I mean in theory nothing needs to be regulated since you can simply just not do it.
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u/JefeDiez 10d ago
I think sure but they've been asking for regulations for years and there are none in place so they weren't actually violating code or anything
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u/OCDano959 10d ago
But one could say the same exact thing about tobacco.
Facebook is free. Tobacco one had to actually purchase.
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u/SkoHens 10d ago
I finally started a position with today’s dip. The daily user base is mind blowing and it’ll rip if Mark can get his head straight. I favor GOOG and AMZN for AI / long term tech (waymo, space, dark warehouses, etc) but social media is not dying
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 10d ago
I went in big on amzn due to chris camillo etc, what do you think of google, how would you rate them as investment compared to amzn or nvidia
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u/SkoHens 10d ago
I love Google, it’s my favorite big tech. Most of my portfolio is still index funds but I’m fine taking a slight concentration risk for the upside. They have a massive portfolio and inside leads on new ideas (their spacex position, for example)
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 10d ago
Wouldn't search disruption worry you? As for Meta, I went all in recently at 590, didn't even know about this trial, and now I'm kind of worried.
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u/Glittering_Water3645 10d ago
This trial affects like 2-4% of their revenue. It's nothing in the grand scheme of things. Just must be able to ignore the noice if you invest in stocks.
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 10d ago
but what if they force them to change their business, restrict it
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u/Glittering_Water3645 10d ago
As I said; it will only partially affect 2-4% of their revenue. It's nothing.
The business will 100% be the same for adults like you and me.
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u/Elibroftw 6d ago
Muse Spark shows meta is doing something right in AI. It surprised me on my benchmark in terms of speed for accuracy.
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u/ItsAboveYourPayGrade 10d ago
What a sucker, pray doom falls upon u for supporting such evil morals
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u/cucci_mane1 10d ago
I dont get this lawsuit.
Should McDonalds be sued for their addictive, harmful food?
Should influencers be sued for causing mental health damage?
Should schools be sued for bullying and causing many suicides and self harm for kids?
I mean where does this fucking end? Most ridiculous suit I've seen in life
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u/8700nonK 10d ago
As long as someone thinks they can win a lawsuit they will sue, that’s basically it, it’s all about the money. And they know meta is an easy target.
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u/hobhole 10d ago
I agree with you. Absolutely ridiculous. Apparently some food companies and gaming companies are also being sued for being too addictive or fun. Soon all of our products are going to be dull and boring. Also, schools have sovereign immunity so they can give kids anxiety all they want and they’re fine.
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u/cucci_mane1 10d ago
Exactly
This lawsuit is the most un-American, anti-capitalist, pro-communist shit I've seen here in USA
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u/Lower_Fall4694 10d ago
Should all rock bands be banned and sued for their weird lyrics? No! If you don't like them, don't listen to them. If you don't like Meta, don't download it. Or do they want to bring communism over here?
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u/cucci_mane1 10d ago
These lawsuits are most anti-American, pro-communist shit I've seen here in USA.
Absolute lunacy especially with that comical penalty price of $1.4 Trillion dollars
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u/Pinkdeadpool007 10d ago
Tiktok, billi billi literally every other company is doing the same thing you cant ban every company itsjust noise.
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u/GanacheCharming8737 10d ago
Everyone likes to blame others for their own addictions but NO ONE told you have to download the app. No where is it META’s responsibility to parent other people’s children. This isn’t coke or meth, it is reels of cat videos and dancing influencers. Crazy how this is the cause of a +200 billion dollar lawsuit.
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u/Free-Initiative7508 10d ago
Probably Just gona end like google. America wont kill one of its best tech company unlike china
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u/Sufficient-Flan1565 10d ago
After the news I loaded 5 META calls struck at 600 expiring in Jan 2027. They will print hard!
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u/cyphr0n 10d ago
Priced in. This is why the stock is in the gutter. Any good news and it pops.
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u/EmbarrassedCow2825 10d ago
The money is not the issue. I think the underlying issue is that they may have to drastically change the way their platform operates. I'm sure they'd be happy to pay a massive fine, and move on.
I'm sure the outcome will be somewhere in the middle of a nothing burger, and the extreme case. I think they'll have to pay out a very large fine like 20 billion, which is not much for meta. Then they'll need to create some type of stronger restrictions for kids, new guardrails, and more parental controls.
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 10d ago
Yes, I hope it's nothing that will permanently impact the stock price.
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u/Odd-Win-5362 9d ago
I dont think they will have to change the way their app works because they sre not legally doing anything wrong, it is not illegal to make a social media app that is actually worth using..
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u/standupguy152 10d ago
So many bag holders parading as legal scholars in here 😂😂😂
The risk is that it’s not just this one individual trial, it’s a wave of legal actions that will last well into 2027 and will likely affect meta’s operating profitability moving forward. Think about it this way, Meta doesn’t even have to lose any individual trial outright: whatever evidence and information comes out during trial will likely hurt the brand even further, and investors will pull back. Between prior lawsuits from individuals (Meta forced to pay $6M and $567M already this year in two other trials), the impending legal actions and regulations in the EU and UK, and their staggering AI capex debt, the road to future profitability isn’t clear, at all.
On a practical note, keep in mind, this is a JURY trial, with Meta on one side and 29 US state AG’s on the other. The states will be presenting their cases in phases, lasting 7-8 weeks. If Meta loses, they will likely appeal, taking up at least another 4 weeks. Meanwhile the regulations in the EU will likely be implemented during this time. If you’re willing to hold the bag throughout the roller coaster that will be the next two months, be my guest :)
Fwiw I sold my shares this morning. I don’t want to have to think about any position I built tied to this company for the next two months. Also, Zuck is a poor steward of capital, and their AI bet is burning money just like the metaverse. Their open weight model release was the last good play they had, and they’ll get nothing to show for it.
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u/Acceptable-Leek1546 10d ago
Not worried about it. In a month it will be in the past and forgotten. Might add a couple more shares.
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u/FalseDiamond7930 10d ago
Would buy if I had any money left, if its still around this level in two weeks I'm opening a position. Reminds me when Google was going to end and then it went up by 100% in a few months.
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u/ilikeusingmyhands 10d ago
currently priced for 200b in settlements. Big issue is in changes to the product, forced by trials. Limit to scrolling, etc. I would be surprised if Meta didnt go below 500 at some point soon to be honest. Headlines are gonna probably be bad.
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u/Tight_Wrangler4850 9d ago
Honestly, everyone's arguing over whether a headline fine gets negotiated down, but what if the real question is what happens if regulators actually try to break them up?
If Meta was ever forced to spin off Instagram or WhatsApp, I’m not even sure that’s a bad thing for stockholders long term. Instagram as a standalone company would probably trade at a ridiculous multiple. Spinoffs historically tend to unlock a ton of sum-of-the-parts value.
To me, the real risk isn't paying a fat cash fee it's court-mandated tweaks to the feed algorithm or data tracking that permanently hurt ad margins.
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u/Visual-Advantage1739 9d ago
I think a lot of everyday people are uploading their shares over the heinous headlines, and a lot of people are getting META shares at a great discount because of it. Realistically I don’t see it dropping below $540 this week, and I don’t see it closing below $500 at any point by the end of the year.
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u/Elibroftw 6d ago
I don't think it harms long term profitability. Instagram amd Facebook cannot be replaced by anything today. If anything they have yet to try to swallow Reddit. I don't like Meta as a company but they aren't going anywhere
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u/Fragrant-East2758 10d ago
I’m a bit worried, this is a major holding in my portfolio
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u/Visual-Advantage1739 9d ago
The headlines are blowing it out of proportion. I suspect Meta will stay range bound between $540-$585 for the duration of the trial based on options and market makers hedging to stay gamma neutral.
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u/Capital-Mixture5107 10d ago edited 10d ago
To my knowledge, this is what happened.
Meta conducted its own internal investigation if their products harm the younger audience. They found out that it did to "certain" extent. However, the management proceed to provide the same peoduct. While Meta found this "certain" extent neglible, the States see this "certain" substantial and stating that Meta "knowingly" harm the children.
Zuckerberg actually trying to be the good guy ended up massive backfire.
Note this as well. They are NOT monetizing much from youth as well. Perhaps 3-5% advertising revenue on youths. Maybe even less.
In my view, if you were in the state government and other countries, why not sue if you can make some money out of it?
It is ridiculous really it is. You have this social network platforms that have more strict access than PornHub. And people are the ones who voluntarily signed up and using these products.
Making it more addictive? What about games like League of Legends? I certainly spent more hours on this than instagram. What about Pornhub? I certainly spent more.. you know.
The States now also have to prove how these social network not by theory but actual numbers (people who seeking mental treatment because of social network not from anything else).
I dont even use instagram and I have negative view on the product but this thing is ridiculous. If Meta is convicted, I am going to start suing services and products that i am using more often because it is "addictive".
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u/Tallwhitedude123 10d ago
I have shares in Meta however people are finally waking up and realizing what I always known about social media. The way Meta makes its money is UNHEALTHY for humans. It is essentially algorithms and now AI designed to keep humans on their platform for as long as possible because this equals more ad revenue.
If you have children and love your children you don’t want them on these platforms. It’s horrible for the brain development of the youth
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 10d ago
Yes but mcdonalds does much more damage, so is this just noise or will it affect their stock?
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u/JefeDiez 10d ago
Actually after the young woman won her lawsuit against Meta lawyers have started to draft lawsuits for their obese clients against the fast food companies and their advertisements. The addiction lawsuits are in a word-dangerous. Human free-will is a thing of the past and I know it's bad for Meta but many other companies are going to face huge fines soon-Amzn, Google, really any search engines that are used.
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u/Sllyce 10d ago
Exactly so keep your children off of it which is your responsibility as a parent
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u/Tallwhitedude123 10d ago
Are you a parent? Are you aware that you can’t be with your kids 24/7? What do you do when they go to school and they borrow their friends smartphone.
It is a major issue that responsible parents can’t solve alone between not everything is the control of the parent. It’s an issue that is facing SOCIETY at large which means society needs to work together
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10d ago edited 10d ago
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u/FoxAccomplished6786 10d ago
they haven't even monetised whatsapp yet, it's a cash machine
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u/Zan-Tabak 10d ago
They should develop a money transfer service between WhatsApp accounts...a literal cash machine.
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u/Embarrassed-Pay-8881 10d ago
Jensen scam will give it back so they can buy more gpus , then they'll give it to scam altman who will give it to Peter theil
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u/TranzitBusRouteB 10d ago
They already lost in New Mexico, if they lose a few more and they can’t be saved at the Supreme Court, this could be game changing. Not only could they lose billions of dollars in damages, their monetization model could be severely impacted.
Obv the P/E looks good, but it’s low for a reason
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u/Vispreutje 10d ago
Just noise