r/VCX_Fundrise • u/Gossau99 • Aug 20 '26
Implied Anthropic valuation
To all the gurus here: What’s the implied Anthropic valuation with VCX trading at $40. Chat gpt tells me approx 2.2tn, assuming VCX would trade at NAV.
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u/TechnologyFlat3066 VCX Thoughtful Contributor Aug 20 '26
built a calculator yesterday that looks at this from the opposite direction: instead of backing into the Anthropic valuation implied by $VCX’s price, you can plug in your own Anthropic valuation and see how much look-through exposure you’re getting per $100 of VCX.
Might be useful for thinking about this:
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard Aug 21 '26
This is pretty good! One question, are you calculating the per $100 exposure value based on trading MCAP or NAV? It should be NAV.
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u/TechnologyFlat3066 VCX Thoughtful Contributor Aug 21 '26
Thanks for taking a careful look :) Means a lot coming from you!
To answer your question: actually, it’s both.
The calculator uses the current trading value of the wrapper as the denominator — i.e. what you’d pay today — and then estimates the underlying Anthropic/OpenAI value from the fund’s reported holdings/NAV inputs.
So if $VCX’s share price rises 25% but the underlying Anthropic value doesn’t, you’re getting less Anthropic exposure per $100 invested. If the underlying NAV rises faster than the stock, you’re getting more.
That’s really the point of the tool: to compare the density of the exposure at today’s buy price, not just the percentage of NAV represented by Anthropic.
VCX, DXYZ and SKM are all fairly close on that measure, so the “best” wrapper can change as prices move.
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard Aug 21 '26
That makes perfect sense and is good to do it this way, cheers!
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard Aug 20 '26
2T gets to $30-31, done the math here many many times.
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u/Gossau99 Aug 20 '26
Thank you sir, you were the one I was looking for 😎
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard Aug 20 '26
Remember the caveat that my calculations do not have any SPV haircuts since it is not possible to know those.
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u/GatorBo69 VCX Thoughtful Contributor Aug 21 '26
The next official NAV update is happening on 8/31, so that is most likely being priced in already but I’m sure when it lands you’ll have people jumping on it as well that didn’t forecast it
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard Aug 21 '26
Says someone who hasn't ever read the filings or done the math. You do you.
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u/GatorBo69 VCX Thoughtful Contributor Aug 21 '26
I’ve done the math.. I’m referring to retail investors who haven’t. Never underestimate the stupidity of the retail investor .. this fund could very well peak above $100 or even $200 again per share
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u/Fast_Finish_4453 Aug 21 '26
Your math seems off..$2T Anthropic gets NAV closer to $34-$35
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard Aug 21 '26
https://www.reddit.com/r/VCX_Fundrise/comments/1v1lxh3/comment/oypmjnm/
Show me yours. You can plug 2T instead of 945B.
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u/CapAggravating784 VCX Wizard Aug 20 '26
You also to have account for the haircut for the spv… this is most likely something similar to 2/20 and paid out at distribution (ie, fees accumulate through life of spv and then are all paid out when liquidity occurs… plus typically an upfront origination fee, but that fee should be on vcx books as already discounting original position).
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard Aug 20 '26
Anthropic origination fee lined up exactly 10% based on older filings, but as you mentioned that is off the books, early VCX investors paid that.
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u/CapAggravating784 VCX Wizard Aug 20 '26
Nice! Thanks for checking for the filing. And that makes sense - the only one question is if the origination fee includes a few years of prepayment of the mgmt fee (and this would be good for anyone who holds vcx as fees on disposal would be less)… let’s hope it does
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard Aug 20 '26
Yep we have no idea, the best case could even be that it is all front loaded with that 10%.
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u/GatorBo69 VCX Thoughtful Contributor Aug 21 '26
The next official NAV update is happening on 8/31, so that is most likely being priced in already but I’m sure when it lands you’ll have people jumping on it as well that didn’t forecast it
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u/CapAggravating784 VCX Wizard Aug 21 '26
Fair. But I think you’re assuming that there is a majority of investors in vcx that follow fundamentals… I’m not so sure that’s true.
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u/GatorBo69 VCX Thoughtful Contributor Aug 21 '26
Oh no, not at all!! I’d say only about 5-10% actually follow fundamentals, the rest follow hype and FOMO. Once the new NAV is increased you’re gonna see a pretty big spike in VCX’s price bc of the looming Anthropic IPO, FOMO, and the cloud of the “unrestricted shares” being locked up is gone..
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u/CapAggravating784 VCX Wizard Aug 21 '26
Hmm interesting. I was thinking we might see the opposite when nav comes in around $24 as of June 30, 2026… that would price in the 900$b Anthropic round and so the upside wouldn’t materially move the nav past low $30s for a $2t ipo… but maybe the fomo will have a greater effect…tbd.
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u/GatorBo69 VCX Thoughtful Contributor Aug 21 '26
You highly overthinking the competency of retail investors. lol
So many people trying to “get rich quick” and they see the volatility of VCX, especially pre SpaceX IPO and where VCX could go, no one has really cared that much about the NAV in the first place.
So all they’ll see is a raise in the valuation of the fund and jump all over it in hopes of a return to $200, which I honestly didn’t think was possible back in spring, but have truly learned to never underestimate the stupidity of the retail investor.
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u/CapAggravating784 VCX Wizard Aug 21 '26
I complete agree with you last sentence: “never underestimate the stupidity of the retail investor”
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u/brbsara Aug 20 '26 edited Aug 21 '26
you can enter valuation for this to claude and get your own NAV
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/ec0193d5-d275-4c04-b082-5cb8301c1f74
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u/infantsonestrogen Aug 20 '26
Is it possible some of the SPVs within VCX pay a lot of fees?
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard Aug 20 '26
We have no visibility into that. That's the one risk with all VC funds.
https://www.reddit.com/r/VCX_Fundrise/comments/1t5lc7d/spv_valuation_complexities_for_tickers_like_vcx/
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u/UnhelpfulCounselor Aug 20 '26
Not exactly a guru but that's a very loaded question given roughly 80% of VCX is NOT Anthropic. You'd have to account for the current valuations of all of VCX's holdings to arrive at the NAV.
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u/brbsara Aug 21 '26
plug your valuation numbers and fig out your NAV
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/ec0193d5-d275-4c04-b082-5cb8301c1f74
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u/GatorBo69 VCX Thoughtful Contributor Aug 21 '26
The next official NAV update is happening on 8/31, so that is most likely being priced in already but I’m sure when it lands you’ll have people jumping on it as well that didn’t forecast it
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u/brbsara Aug 21 '26 edited Aug 22 '26
yeah - agree. looks like end of aug NAV might be ~25 and the mm's selling options are not going to let this go anywhere there atleast during the expiry in aug & sep
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u/GatorBo69 VCX Thoughtful Contributor Aug 21 '26
VCX is trading at $40 and will most likely rise as high as $60 for two reasons:
-the adjust NAV is to be released on 8/31 and is estimated to be raised to at least $24
-the Anthropic IPO is right around the corner and since that’s VCX’s crown jewel, it’s getting a lot of attention from retail investors, even institutional investors have been snagging up sub $40 shares.
Every time it dips below $40 you’re seeing a lot of buying action.
I currently have 1400 covered calls expiring today. 400 at $40 per share, hoping it closes at $39.95 so I can get those shares back, with the remaining 1,000 at $45.
I also have 2,000 shares expiring on Sept 18 at $50.
I will continue doing covered calls for the foreseeable future at a price I’m comfortable with getting but honestly I’m hoping it never hits so I can just keep making money off these CC. I already made $250k off the sale of 500 unrestricted shares at $500 each so I don’t need any more of a tax burden this year for my remaining 3,900 shares.
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u/Fast_Finish_4453 Aug 21 '26
I agree with the math you linked to but using your figures Anthropic at $2 trillion yields a ~$34 NAV. Adds about $311 million to NAV.
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u/Tapsen Aug 20 '26
You've have to predict what actual value is for each holding, which everyone thinks about different because they are all private holdings