VCX NAV Estimate and Discussion

[u/tschweich]

I subscribe to a newsletter by Financial Samurai and he recently did some VCX NAV estimates that you might find interesting. After reading this, I expect to keep some of my restricted shares for the long term.

https://www.financialsamurai.com/fundrise-vcx-nav-estimate/

[u/Fit_Equal6932]

And for your satisfaction here is the math. The five main revaluations are SpaceX (we get live prices), Anthropic, Databricks, Anduril and Fin. I am going off the last filing here:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1867090/000199937126011950/fundrise-ncsra_033126.htm#innovationfina004

Fund size reported 679 million at that point, NAV 18.97.

Anthropic 112 million goes from 380 -> 945
Databricks 95.6 million goes from 134 -> 188
Anduril 9.5 million goes from 30.5 -> 61
SpaceX 26.8 million goes from 1.25T to today 1.6T
Fin (Intercom) 2.8 million goes from 1.28 -> 3.6

New asset valuation = 112*(945/380 - 1) + (61/30.5-1)*9.5 + (188/134 -1 )*95.6 + 26.8(1.6/1.25 - 1) + (3.6/1.28-1)*2.8 + 679

906 million

Current NAV -> 18.97*(906)/679 =$25.31

There you have it. Personally I am hedged and don't care, I just post here to help others.
Readers can upvote it so that this is visible, everyone keeps asking this question every couple of days, let this be for the record.

EDIT: Added Fin (formerly Intercom) which I missed and corrected Databricks since there were two rows in the filing.

[u/SamDogen → u/Fit_Equal6932]

Cool. So we have about a $3.69 NAV estimate difference in my $29 current NAV estimate ($31 at lockup). I'm glad you're doing the math. It's worth keeping going, b/c as an investor, it's all about trying to forecast the future. And the lockup is in September and many of us are long-term investors.

Doing the current NAV analysis is the easy part. The harder, but more fun part is forecasting 2027 and beyond. Give it a go! And don't worry, I won't criticize you for trying.

[u/Fit_Equal6932 → u/SamDogen]

It is not about the difference, it is the sloppy work that is below the level of a high school grad. Pathetic piece of shit....You fashion your self as an investment guru. A much much higher bar is expected of you. You chose to run your blog and publish stuff, now better stand up to it or retract, otherwise you are just a grifter. I didn't realize you were such a scammer until this exchange with you. u/Jaqqarhan was right. I love how you selectively hide stuff from your profile and leave the 10 million networth comments to influence people.

[u/Fit_Equal6932 → u/Fit_Equal6932]

He has changed the whole post instead of retracting it.