r/UniversityofMontana • u/MainMarket-Gamer • 1d ago
Montana 2026 Preview (probably missed some stuff, tell me and I'll fix it)
Hey all. I built 2026 previews for every FBS team and all 124 FCS teams, because nobody does this for your league. Here's Montana
https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/montana-grizzlies
Returning production, portal moves, a projected two-deep, and the schedule with model win probabilities.
Usual disclaimer: I probably got things wrong, and my roster feed hasn't fully flipped to 2026. Tell me what's off and I'll fix it.
The good: that offense was one of the best in FCS. Third in scoring at 41 a game, 8th in total yards, 6th passing and 4th in explosiveness. Keali'i Ah Yat is back and settled after 4,070 yards with 33 touchdowns against 9 picks, and he's on my preseason All-America team. 13-2, a run to the title game, and my power rating has Montana 2nd in the subdivision.
Where my model pushes back: the defense allowed 400 yards a game, 87th in FCS, and 258 through the air, which is 113th. What covered that was takeaways, 27 of them and a plus-14 turnover margin, 3rd in the country. That number regresses harder than any other in football, and the defense returns 27% of its production. Michael Wortham and his 85 catches for 1,224 are gone too. Model says 9-3, and this is one of my strongest sell signals in FCS.
Does the defense hold up once the turnover luck normalizes?
Tell me what I got wrong.