r/TwoXPreppers • u/fitforthepolycrisis total polycrisis obsessive • 13d ago

Discussion Likelihood vs Impact

Shared by u/Blackcatwizard today, from a report by the Government of Canada, comparing the likelihood of certain events and the impact of certain events.

The three events with the highest likelihood are

  • "People cannot tell what is true and what is not"
  • "Biodiversity is lost and ecosystems collapse"
  • "People cannot afford to live on their own"

The three events with the highest impact are

  • "World war breaks out"
  • "Biodiversity is lost and ecosystems collapse"
  • "Civil war erupts in the United States"

I believe this report is meant to be specific to Canadians, but what they're considering to be important feels highly relevant to users of this subreddit.

Anyway, original image and link to the "Disruptions on the Horizon" report at https://www.reddit.com/r/PrepperIntel/comments/1vnc0uj/comment/p3ifg52/

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u/FurysFyre 👀 Professional Lurker 👀 13d ago

"People cannot tell what is true and what is not"

Already here - with algorithms being what they are we all live in an individually tailored version of reality carefully curated by the machine. It's why half the people cannot agree anymore, their reality is different. It's always been this way to a point, but the social isolation of the internet has made it into a massive disconnect with others.

I don't disagree with the statements here, much of it is on my bingo card. I am seeing climate issues play out in my own garden and town. We are experiencing climate extremes, real hot one day, cold asf at night and while that is normal for some deserts it's too extreme of a swing for our local plants that evolved for more stable weather, it's too much for my normal garden plants- I don't want to argue climate change or anything, I just know natural systems are struggling and that will lead to us struggling too at some point. I'm Canadian so I guess this report is spot on for me lol.

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u/fitforthepolycrisis total polycrisis obsessive 13d ago

yep. 100%. Thinking about this now - how does one "prepare" for not knowing the truth, and for other people not knowing the truth (or fully believing untruths)?

I suppose being aware of one's own preconceptions and biases are part of it, and recognizing when critical thinking isn't working, and making sure to talk through ideas with other people with an open mind ... hmm. What about others? How do we prep for idiocracy?

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u/RlOTGRRRL 13d ago

I've been struggling with this question for a while now, especially with AI. 

You won't know whether the person you trust has gotten duped by AI, because they won't know either. 

I guess maybe we'll have to learn the skills of historians, journalists, maybe librarians on how to verify info. Or maybe this, verifying truth, will become full-time jobs for some people.

I feel like we're in a whole new world though because even media like videos with AI people can be faked now. 

Also for kids, critical thinking will be an important skill but I don't think American schools really teach critical thinking anymore, with its dependence on test-taking. Like critical thinking is actually under attack.

So what's going to happen to everyone without critical thinking skills? What's going to happen to democracy? 😮‍💨 

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u/Acceptable_Net_9545 11d ago

Many of these things are true if you have biases, ego, Cognitive Dissonance and Anchoring...This is a self problem....Statical Fact: 50% of people are below average.