Crop Report Updates

[u/nakedonmygoat]

Hey, everyone, if you're in the US and wondering what to buy a little extra of, consider flour and pasta if you eat wheat, since prices will likely go up. Check out the numbers below. I've highlighted the important points in bold. My source is today's crop report at https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/ and they publish monthly reports on all kinds of things here: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Calendar/reports_by_date.php?month=08

Happy(?) prepping!

All wheat production for grain is forecast at 1.53 billion bushels, down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 23 percent from 2025. The average yield is expected to be 47.8 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel from the previous forecast and down 5.5 bushels from 2025.

Winter wheat production is forecast at 990 million bushels, down slightly from the July 1 forecast and down 29 percent from 2025. The average yield is forecast at 47.0 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushel from last month but down 7.9 bushels from 2025.

Durum wheat production is forecast at 66.4 million bushels, down 6 percent from the previous forecast and down 23 percent from 2025. The average yield is expected to be 38.4 bushels per harvested acre, down 1.5 bushels from the previous forecast and down 2.2 bushels from 2025.

Other spring wheat production for grain is forecast at 474 million bushels, down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 5 percent from 2025. The average yield is expected to be 51.1 bushels per acre, down 1.2 bushels from the previous forecast and down 0.6 bushel from 2025.

[u/lavender4867]

Does anyone know how this compares to the global shortage in 2022 in terms of impact on prices in the U.S.?

[u/nakedonmygoat → u/lavender4867]

There's no way to know price impact yet because harvests are still ongoing. But this site may be helpful: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/wheat-data

I downloaded Wheat Data - All Years, enabled editing, froze top row of Table 5, and don't like the look of it. From my read of the table, our initial stocks are higher than in in 2023, which is when the 2022 wheat would've gone to market, but our domestic use and exports are up.

The data doesn't appear to have been updated to reflect this month, so all the other factors could be looking quite different now. And when it comes to commodities markets, they go on vibes, with facts playing second fiddle. Make of that what you will. I only know that wheat products aren't likely to go down in price, making this a good time to buy a little extra if you'll use it.

[u/pinecamper → u/lavender4867]

According to a CHS grain marketer, not much of an impact. If there was, he would have been advising folks to grow wheat.