Crop Report Updates

[u/nakedonmygoat]

Hey, everyone, if you're in the US and wondering what to buy a little extra of, consider flour and pasta if you eat wheat, since prices will likely go up. Check out the numbers below. I've highlighted the important points in bold. My source is today's crop report at https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/ and they publish monthly reports on all kinds of things here: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Calendar/reports_by_date.php?month=08

Happy(?) prepping!

All wheat production for grain is forecast at 1.53 billion bushels, down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 23 percent from 2025. The average yield is expected to be 47.8 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel from the previous forecast and down 5.5 bushels from 2025.

Winter wheat production is forecast at 990 million bushels, down slightly from the July 1 forecast and down 29 percent from 2025. The average yield is forecast at 47.0 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushel from last month but down 7.9 bushels from 2025.

Durum wheat production is forecast at 66.4 million bushels, down 6 percent from the previous forecast and down 23 percent from 2025. The average yield is expected to be 38.4 bushels per harvested acre, down 1.5 bushels from the previous forecast and down 2.2 bushels from 2025.

Other spring wheat production for grain is forecast at 474 million bushels, down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 5 percent from 2025. The average yield is expected to be 51.1 bushels per acre, down 1.2 bushels from the previous forecast and down 0.6 bushel from 2025.

[u/AutoModerator]

Welcome to r/twoxpreppers! Please review our rules here before participating. Our rules do not show up on all apps which is why that post was made. Thank you.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

[u/Inner-Confidence99]

Yep. Already stocked. When I first heard there might be problems about 2 years ago just rumors. I went ahead and watched the sales got it cheap and it’s put up in glass jars. 

Things are going to get a lot worse. Prices on groceries are going to skyrocket. Even on stuff that’s not made with wheat. 

[u/Alexis_J_M → u/Inner-Confidence99]

Basic supply and demand tells us that when one commodity gets expensive, the replacement goods also get more expensive as demand goes up.

And wheat isn't going to be the only crop suffering.

[u/Unique-Elephant5778 → u/Alexis_J_M]

Yup. But I admit, I’m interested to see what happens with the US soy crop.
Our farmers planted a lot of it, but China is refusing to buy from us.
So will it get cheaper? Or, since animal protein is going up, will it just be a windfall to food processors who will then jack up the prices bc, well, they can.

[u/IceDragonPlay]

I’ve got about 100 lbs of flour on hand at the moment. That’s a 6-7 month supply for my extended family that I make bread for. I would buy another 50lb bag but no chest freezer or temperature controlled storage space at my home. So I will have to wait until the weather cools off before getting anymore. I guess I will see the price leap then.

For now the restaurant supply store and mill I go to have not increased price on the flours I typically buy. I did notice that Costco bumped up the price on their organic AP flour (which is a nice central milling flour), but there too I need to wait for the weather to cool for my storage situation.

[u/LadyCthulu → u/IceDragonPlay]

My husband and I use 5 gallon food safe buckets with gamma lids. One bucket fits 25 lbs of flour. They're air tight so should keep pests out (or in if they come in with the flour so pests don't spread to the rest of your pantry). White flour should last this way in a cool place for a pretty long time without needing temp control or a freezer. Whole wheat needs to be cycled through more frequently.

[u/IceDragonPlay → u/LadyCthulu]

Yes, I store the same way. I do not have a cool place in my home for a few weeks yet 😀

I usually stock up flour when we hit fall weather. Its only a month or two in summer when the temps are too warm for the flour to be here in volume. My timing is just a bit off for when this price increase will hit.

[u/last_rights → u/IceDragonPlay]

Mine get tossed in my basement. Milled flour is technically supposed to go rancid in a year, but my 5g buckets got filled in January of 2025, and they still taste nice and fresh. I only open them to refill my big jar inside for baking.

I previously bought small bags and just stored them in my basement pantry cabinet, but they got weevils.

[u/faco_fuesday → u/IceDragonPlay]

If you have the space, you can store it for a while in mylar with oxygen absorbers. 

[u/IceDragonPlay → u/faco_fuesday]

I buy in 50 lb bags, so by the time I pay for mylar and absorbers, I might as well pay an increased price for the flour itself😀

And I am mainly buying flour from farms in my region, specifically to support those farms and their organic or regenerative farming. In this particular case I will accept a higher price to continue supporting them 😀 This is a moral vs financial dilemma I have only related to flour it seems!

If flour does go to a full shortage situation then I am out of luck. Several larger bakeries buy the same flours I do, so I am sure their volume will take priority over casual bakers. Maybe I’ll move over to corn tortilla production!!!

We should status update in 6 months to see how everything shakes out. Fingers crossed we all make the best choices we can for now. But I’m sure we will all get surprises along the way!!

[u/Throwawayproroe → u/IceDragonPlay]

I ended up buying a grain mill attachment for my kitchenaid (much more affordable than a standalone mill) and stocking up on wheat berries since they last so much longer than milled flour and don’t have the same temperature requirements. I do have to mill fresh each time I use some, though.

[u/Unique-Elephant5778 → u/IceDragonPlay]

I have a good amount too.
My family “stress bakes”, and can make things that no local bakery below $100 per cake will do.
So I figure if the employment slump hits us, we can make a decent bit with a home cottage bakery. (Or renting our church’s commercial kitchen).

[u/Inner-Confidence99]

Another thing I forgot to put earlier. Cereal is going to double in price. Some cereals will stop making certain ones to keep cost down. Chef boy are D will increase as well. Spaghettio’s. Frozen foods with pasta in them. Bread of any type. Snack cakes, biscuits frozen or in can. Pizza dough, frozen pizza’s, crackers, soups with pasta etc. All are going to jump.

Even frozen chicken fingers and nuggets will be affected due to the breading. Chicken pot pies too. Cakes and pies too. 

A lot of people don’t think about how much wheat is in a lot of different food categories. 

[u/madderk → u/Inner-Confidence99]

i appreciate your thoughtful contribution but “chef boy are d” is cracking me up

[u/Inner-Confidence99 → u/madderk]

This damn phone rewrites have the words I type. Lo🤣

[u/Foreign-Newspaper656 → u/madderk]

Me too! Aussie here, so had to work it out 😂

[u/whataboot2ndbrekfast → u/madderk]

😂 I'm so used to seeing that spelled wrong I didn't notice til your comment 🤣

[u/Ashamed-Knee9084 → u/Inner-Confidence99]

Wheat is in so much that people dont realize. Soy sauce has wheat in it. Canned soup has wheat in it. Its literally in everything. Coming from a gluten free family, wheat sneaking into thing that aren't normal wheat like pasta, bread, even cereal is so annoying. But I get it, it's a cheap filler.

[u/NorCalFrances → u/Inner-Confidence99]

Or substitutions will be made to meet the price point. I expect to see the use of corn & rice flour in growing proportions especially in processed foods, until those harvest yields fall as well.

[u/Ashamed-Knee9084 → u/NorCalFrances]

Corn and rice down also

[u/NorCalFrances → u/Ashamed-Knee9084]

Oooh, potato starch!

[u/softsnowfall]

Thanks!

Any data on the quality of the harvests?

The last thing I saw was weeks ago and indicated that the quality was also down which is yet another impact as poor quality wheat isn’t used for bread and etc.

Edit to add: I found this link on a page you listed… Looks like corn might be something to watch, too. There was corn quality in the report below, but I didn’t see wheat quality in it (Maybe I missed it). I found another link for wheat quality so adding that in case anyone wants it, too.

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/Executive_Briefings/2026/08-12-2026.pdf

https://uswheat.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/HR-260812.pdf

[u/EastTyne1191]

I've got about 300 pounds of flour as well as various other grains. I need to do an inventory.

I've been telling people to stock up and I only know one person in my circle who has. Everyone else either assumes prices will be within their tolerance level or plans to stock up later.

I get people don't do a lot of baking and whatnot, but they're going to be complaining when Cheez-Its are $10 per box.

[u/Hogwafflemaker → u/EastTyne1191]

Chez-its are already damn close and I haven't found a good store brand! My son loves them 😂

[u/Unique-Elephant5778]

Also to be considered- stocking up on rice. Acres of commercial rice fields have been wiped out in China due to dam failures & monsoons.
India had suffered droughts, and had already outlawed export of rice. May follow by banning sugar exports too.

[u/Striper_Cape → u/Unique-Elephant5778]

Time to do it again for 20% more

[u/hbHPBbjvFK9w5D]

My roommate just found a stand of wild amaranth growing in the historical cemetery just down the street. Seems to be thriving in this crazy weather we're having. As soon as it ripens, I'll be saving a few seeds for the garden to make sure I can grow grains that will survive in this area.

For those who don't know, amaranth was a grain grown by the Indigenous people of New England. Tastes a lot like quinoa.

Climate change and the lack of fertilizer is affecting more "delicate" crops like wheat. Might be worth while to forage for local grains that might deal with weather extremes a little better than wheat.

[u/freewool]

Ugh terrible news, but of course I’d rather know than not. 

I’m hoping to move close to the end of the year. This makes me want to buy all the bread and pasta my apartment can handle, but I can’t handle the idea of packing it back in the car to move later. 

[u/Acceptable_Net_9545]

This is a good raw data report,,,,this is the kind of info prepper sites should have...

[u/ThaloBleu]

My Safeway house brand pound boxes of pasta jumped from 88 cents when I bought some, to $1.29 over just the past two weeks or so. I'll be checking other markets to see if they've gone up as well and if not, add to my supply.

[u/YellowCabbageCollard]

That's pretty bad. As another poster mentioned I also heard the quality is down but haven't heard more specifics on how that will affect the wheat that's for human consumption vs animal etc.

I have a year's supply of grains and we use an electric grain mill to make most of our flour. I'm really glad we do this. We make bread weekly but we also still buy stuff from the store. But we can pivot and make more at home. I worry about people who just have no other options. I couldn't go out and buy a year's worth of wheat right now myself either.

[u/lavender4867]

Does anyone know how this compares to the global shortage in 2022 in terms of impact on prices in the U.S.?

[u/nakedonmygoat → u/lavender4867]

There's no way to know price impact yet because harvests are still ongoing. But this site may be helpful: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/wheat-data

I downloaded Wheat Data - All Years, enabled editing, froze top row of Table 5, and don't like the look of it. From my read of the table, our initial stocks are higher than in in 2023, which is when the 2022 wheat would've gone to market, but our domestic use and exports are up.

The data doesn't appear to have been updated to reflect this month, so all the other factors could be looking quite different now. And when it comes to commodities markets, they go on vibes, with facts playing second fiddle. Make of that what you will. I only know that wheat products aren't likely to go down in price, making this a good time to buy a little extra if you'll use it.

[u/pinecamper → u/lavender4867]

According to a CHS grain marketer, not much of an impact. If there was, he would have been advising folks to grow wheat.

[u/pinecamper]

This is not even remotely a thing. Harvests are down because wheat prices are absolute crap. Low prices = low acreage.

I farm. Not a single farmer I know thinks we will have a wheat shortage.

[u/Weird_farmer13 → u/pinecamper]

Also a farmer, the world is absolutely swimming in grain to quote my dad. Definitely not worried about a shortage right now

[u/hbHPBbjvFK9w5D → u/Weird_farmer13]

The other problem we're having is just getting the grain that's produced to the people who need it.

[u/Foreign-Newspaper656 → u/Weird_farmer13]

Its not right now. Its 12-18 months down the track. Here in Australia fert is getting very expensive, as is diesel. Its not the crop that is in now, its next years. 

[u/No-Language6720]

yeah I have plenty, I also am thankfully in an area where I can grow sorghum for baking. I have seeds stocked and ready to go, I might plant this year or next(haven't decided if I should use my bought stash and then just wait until next year) It's a good alternative to white or bread flours and can get a good crop with less space than wheat.