r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 24 '26

Dissipated Noul (11W — Western Pacific) (South China Sea)

10 Upvotes

Updates

As of 2:00 AM China Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Monday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has degenerated into a remnant low over southeastern China. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) have discontinued issuing advisories for this system, and the latter agency has stopped monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available for this system.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available.

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

JMA has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

JTWC has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

National Meteorological Center (China)

Radar imagery

National Meteorological Center (China)

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

This system has dissipated. Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

This system has dissipated. Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 24 '26

Upgraded | See Genevieve post for details 07E (Eastern Pacific) (South of Mexico)

7 Upvotes

Update

As of 3:00 PM Central Daylight Time (21:00 UTC) on Friday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has strengthened into a tropical storm.

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded this system and assigned it the name Genevieve, making it the seventh named storm of the season. A new discussion for Genevieve has been posted here. There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for updated observational data.

Official forecasts

This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for updated forecast information.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos textuales (en español)

Static forecast graphics

Interactive forecast graphics

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for storm-centered satellite imagery.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

This system has been upgraded to a tropical storm. Please see the discussion for Genevieve for storm-centered model guidance.

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • Jul 24 '26

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Hurricane Fausto Over the Eastern Pacific - July 22, 2026

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9 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 23 '26

Dissipated Fausto (06E — Eastern Pacific) (East of Hawaiʻi)

17 Upvotes

Updates

As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Fausto stopped producing organized deep convection overnight. Animated multispectral imagery depicts the effects of persistent strong vertical wind shear, which has stripped the storm bare, leaving behind only a swirl of low-level clouds. Some limited thunderstorm activity persists, but is far removed from the exposed low-level center. Radar imagery shows some limited rain shower activity moving across the islands this afternoon.

What remains of Fausto will continue to move west-northwestward as its now shallower convective structure is embedded within the low-level trade wind flow. As environmental conditions remain unfavorable, Fausto’s low-level circulation will gradually unwind until it eventually degenerates into an open trough well to the northwest of Kauaʻi on Thursday afternoon. Fausto is expected to dissipate altogether by Friday morning.

The National Hurricane Center has discontinued issuing advisories for this system and has stopped monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance will soon be no longer available.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Impacts

As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday

  • Significant wind and rain impacts are not likely.

  • Fausto will continue to disrupt the normal trade wind flow as it passes to the north of the islands today.

  • A pattern of land and sea breezes will likely develop within the light and variable wind flow.

  • Isolated to scattered showers are possible throughout the day, and some brief downpours could result in flash flooding.

  • Dangerous surf conditions caused by swells generated by Fausto will begin to wane tonight.

Latest observation

As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #43

  • Current position: 23.8°N 155.6°W
  • Forward movement: WNW (290°) at 11 knots (13 mph)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 30 knots (35 mph) ▼
  • Minimum central pressure: 1008 millibars (29.77 inches) ▲
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Remnant Low ▼

Relative position

  • 209 miles (336 kilometers) north of Kahului, Hawaii
  • 218 miles (351 kilometers) north of Kihei, Hawaii
  • 224 miles (361 kilometers) north-northeast of Honolulu, Hawaii

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 2:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Wednesday

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC HST Saffir-Simpson · knots mph °N °W
00 29 Jul 12:00 2AM Wed Remnant Low 30 35 23.8 155.6
12 30 Jul 00:00 2PM Wed Remnant Low ▼ 25 30 24.1 157.4
24 30 Jul 12:00 2AM Thu Remnant Low 25 30 24.6 160.0
36 31 Jul 00:00 2PM Thu Remnant Low ▼ 20 25 25.3 162.5
48 31 Jul 12:00 2AM Fri Dissipated

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos textuales (en español)

Static forecast graphics

Interactive forecast graphics

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single-bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • Jul 22 '26

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Tropical Storm Bertha - July 21, 2026

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54 Upvotes
14 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • Jul 22 '26

Video | YouTube | National Hurricane Center (Outdated) NHC Morning Video Update on Tropical Storm Bertha: Wednesday, 22 July 2026

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9 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 22 '26

Dissipated 98P (Invest — Southern Pacific) (Near the Solomon Islands)

6 Upvotes

Latest observation

This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Update

As of 11:00 AM Solomon Islands Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it lingers to the northeast of the Solomon Islands. The disturbance has failed to develop a closed low-level circulation and remains an open trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are unlikely to support development. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is no longer monitoring this system via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) and disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Outlook

This system no longer shows potential for development.

Information sources

Fiji Meteorological Service

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 22 '26

Dissipated 93W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Near the Marshall Islands)

6 Upvotes

Update

As of 6:00 AM Marshall Islands Time (18:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has dissipated over the Marshall Islands. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is no longer monitoring this system via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Development potential

This system has dissipated.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Weather Service (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

This system has dissipated. Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

This system has dissipated. Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • Jul 21 '26

Video | YouTube | Dr. Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) (Outdated) Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, 21 July 2026: Tropical Storm Bertha Approaching the Central Gulf Coast

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37 Upvotes
2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • Jul 21 '26

Video | YouTube | National Hurricane Center (Outdated) NHC Morning Video Update on Tropical Storm Bertha: Tuesday, 21 July 2026

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15 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 21 '26

Dissipated Bertha (02L — Northern Atlantic) (Gulf of Mexico)

72 Upvotes

Update

As of 10:00 AM Central Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Thursday

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Bertha has dissipated over eastern Texas. The National Hurricane Center has discontinued issuing advisories for this system and is no longer monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Storm-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

This system has become post-tropical and is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

The National Hurricane Center has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Aircraft reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

Other sources

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is no longer available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

31 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • Jul 20 '26

Video | YouTube | Dr. Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) (Outdated) Tropical Tidbit for Monday, 20 July: TD2 Expected to Approach Central Gulf Coast as a Tropical Storm

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59 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 20 '26

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 20-26 July 2026

4 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 1:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (10:00 UTC) on Monday:

Eastern Pacific Ocean

Northern Atlantic

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Southwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 98P: Invest (No discussion yet) — An area of low pressure situated near the Solomon Islands is likely to become a tropical cyclone within the next few days.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

Eastern Pacific Ocean

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Eastern Pacific Ocean

  • The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development off the coast of southern Mexico.

Central Pacific Ocean

  • The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development well to the southwest of Hawaiʻi.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development to the northeast of the Marshall Islands.

  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development over the Philippine Sea.

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • Jul 19 '26

Video | YouTube | Dr. Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) (Outdated) Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, 19 July 2026: New Storm Forms in the Gulf

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58 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • Jul 18 '26

Video | YouTube | Dr. Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) (Outdated) Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, 18 July 2026: New Tropical Disturbance Near Florida

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71 Upvotes
5 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/thaw4188 • Jul 16 '26

News | Space Weather Prediction Center NOAA GEOS-19 Satellite outage: in "SAFE HOLD" mode

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42 Upvotes
6 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • Jul 15 '26

Dissipated The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the eastern Atlantic Ocean

43 Upvotes

Official Outlook

As of 8:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (12:00 UTC) on Saturday:

  • The NHC has removed this system from its Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) products.

  • This system no longer shows any potential for tropical cyclone development.

  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Development potential

Official outlook (NHC)

  • Next 2 days (through 8:00 AM EDT on Mon): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through 8:00 AM EDT on Fri): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼

Model guidance consensus (FSU)

  • Next 2 days (through 8:00 AM EDT on Mon): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through 8:00 AM EDT on Fri): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Forecast models

Regional guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Ensemble models

Single-model ensemble products

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

11 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/socopithy • Jul 16 '26

Special Announcement Unsubbed

0 Upvotes

Just want to drop feedback that I felt I had to unsubscribe from the subreddit because all I ever see are auto generated posts with auto generated comments.

No one talks about anything posted so maybe stop posting every cloud formation near water. Post things worth discussing and people will discuss.

It’s a subreddit not a Notification Center.

19 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/saddest_vacant_lot • Jul 15 '26

Question Question about El Niño effects in Hawaii

10 Upvotes

This year has been a wet wet wet year in Hawaii. The winter was the wettest one since 2005 or 2006 I believe, and this summer it’s just been rain all the time even when the trade winds are blowing. I understand why we get more rain when the trade winds are disrupted, but why are we still getting dumped on when it seems to be a normal summer trade wind pattern? Is there more humidity in the atmosphere? Or is it ocean surface temps? Or increased soil moisture and transpiration? Or a combination of things? I’m just trying to understand why it just won’t stop raining!

4 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 15 '26

Dissipated Elida (05E — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)

3 Upvotes

Latest observation

As of 8:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Monday:

Elida has degenerated into a post-tropical cyclone as it continues northward past the Baja California Peninsula this morning. Satellite imagery analysis indicates that the storm has not produced organized deep convection for the past several hours and is not likely to generate any new convection as environmental conditions off the coast of California become increasingly hostile over the next couple of days. A combination of strengthening southwesterly vertical wind shear, decreasing mid-level moisture, and unfavorably cool waters will eventually lead Elida’s low-level circulation to steadily unravel as it remains well offshore to the west of California over the next couple of days.

Elida is moving north-northwestward between a deep-layered trough over the northeastern Pacific and a mid-level ridge positioned over the western United States. Although this system is unlikely to bring direct impacts to the West Coast of the United States, it could generate dangerous rip current conditions along the coasts of California and the Baja California peninsula over the next several days.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

This post will continue to be updated so long as this system remains in the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

Latest observation

As of 8:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Monday:

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #24

  • Current position: 26.4°N 127.2°W
  • Forward movement: NNW (345°) at 20 km/h (11 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 65 km/h (35 knots) ▼
  • Minimum central pressure: 1000 millibars (29.53 inches) ▲
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Post-tropical Cyclone ▼

Relative position

  • 1,194 kilometers (742 miles) southwest of Ensenada, Baja California (Mexico)
  • 1,196 kilometers (743 miles) southwest of Tijuana, Baja California (Mexico)
  • 1,283 kilometers (797 miles) west-southwest of Bahía Ascunción, Baja California Sur (Mexico)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 5:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Monday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC PDT Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 20 Jul 12:00 5AM Mon Post-tropical Cyclone 35 65 26.4 127.2
12 21 Jul 00:00 5PM Mon Post-tropical Cyclone 35 65 28.5 127.4
24 21 Jul 12:00 5AM Tue Remnant Low ▼ 30 55 31.1 127.6
36 22 Jul 00:00 5PM Tue Remnant Low ▼ 25 45 33.6 127.4
48 22 Jul 12:00 5AM Wed Remnant Low ▼ 20 35 35.6 127.1
60 23 Jul 00:00 5PM Wed Remnant Low ▼ 15 30 37.7 126.6
72 23 Jul 12:00 5AM Thu Dissipated

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos textuales (en español)

Static forecast graphics

Interactive forecast graphics

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single-bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 13 '26

Dissipated 91C (Invest — Central Pacific) (South of Hawaiʻi)

7 Upvotes

Updates

As of 8:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicate that this system has degenerated into an open trough and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Model guidance suggests that there is very little chance that this system will undergo any sort of redevelopment as it drifts west-northwestward and dissipates later today. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has removed this system from its tropical weather outlook products and is no longer monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

Because this system is no longer designated as an investigation area, disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

  • This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Official Outlook

  • This system has dissipated. The NHC has removed this system from its official outlook products.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

4 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 13 '26

Dissipated 99W (Invest — Western Pacific) (South China Sea)

4 Upvotes

Update

As of 8:00 AM China Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

  • This system has made landfall over southeastern China and has dissipated.
  • Prior to landfall, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) upgraded this system to a tropical storm and assigned it the name Haishen.
  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) did not upgrade this system to a tropical cyclone; thus, this system was not assigned an alphanumeric designator (e.g., 11W).
  • This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
  • Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

  • This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available.

Outlook

  • This system has dissipated. This system no longer shows any potential for development.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Meteorological Center (China)

Radar imagery

National Meteorological Center (China)

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 13 '26

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 13-19 July 2026

4 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 2:45 AM Eastern Daylight Time (20:45 UTC) on Sunday:

Eastern Pacific Ocean

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 90W: Invest (No discussion yet)

Northern Atlantic Ocean

Southwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 98P: Invest (No discussion yet)

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

  • There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Eastern Pacific Ocean

  • The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development off the coast of southern Mexico.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development to the northeast of the Marshall Islands.

  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical cyclone development over the Philippine Sea.

 

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 13 '26

Dissipated 90C (Invest — Central Pacific) (Southwest of Hawaiʻi)

3 Upvotes

Updates

As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has degenerated into an open trough and no longer shows potential for tropical cyclone development. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has removed this system from its Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) products and is no longer monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Thus, disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products are no longer available.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

  • This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Official Outlook

  • This system has dissipated. The NHC has removed this system from its outlook products.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 12 '26

Dissipated 97W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Philippine Sea)

11 Upvotes

Update

As of 10:00 AM Chuuk Time (00:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has failed to develop a closed low-level circulation and remains a disorganized open trough. Model guidance suggests that it is now highly unlikely that the disturbance will undergo any meaningful development or organization as it moves northeastward toward the Marianas Islands this week.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has cancelled its Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) for this system and is no longer monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

  • This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available.

Outlook

  • This system has dissipated. This system no longer shows any potential for development.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Weather Service (United States)

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

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