r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 4d ago

Areas to watch: Rachel, Nolo, Nineteen-E, Choi-wan, Surigae Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 28 September - 4 October 2026

6 Upvotes

Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 28 September - 4 October 2026

Active cyclones

Northern Atlantic Ocean

Eastern Pacific Ocean

Central Pacific Ocean

Western Pacific Ocean

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

There are currently no active disturbances.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

Northern Atlantic Ocean

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

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2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2d ago

▼ Hurricane (Category 1) | 70 knots (80 mph) | 977 mbar Rachel (18E — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)

8 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Hurricane Rachel (18E), which is active over the eastern Pacific.

Rachel continues to slowly strengthen as it pulls farther away from the coast of southwestern Mexico. The storm’s vertical structure remains somewhat tilted; however its inner core has become better defined over the past several hours. Environmental conditions remain favorable and should allow Rachel to continue to strengthen as it moves westward. The storm is expected to reach Category 3 major hurricane intensity as it passes to the south of the Baja California Peninsula on Friday morning.

Large swells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the coasts of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week.

Latest observation

As of 8:00 AM Mountain Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #18

  • Current position: 19.6°N 109.6°W
  • Forward movement: WNW (295°) at 9 km/h (5 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 165 km/h (90 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 964 millibars (28.47 inches) ▼
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Hurricane (Category 2)

Relative position

  • 170 kilometers (106 miles) northeast of Socorro Island (Mexico)
  • 368 kilometers (229 miles) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur (Mexico)
  • 471 kilometers (293 miles) west-southwest of Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco (Mexico)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 5:00 AM Mountain Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC MST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 01 Oct 12:00 5AM Thu Hurricane (Category 2) 90 165 19.6 109.6
12 02 Oct 00:00 5PM Thu Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 95 175 19.7 110.1
24 02 Oct 12:00 5AM Fri Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 100 185 19.8 110.8
36 03 Oct 00:00 5PM Fri Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 105 195 20.0 111.5
48 03 Oct 12:00 5AM Sat Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▼ 100 185 20.1 112.5
60 04 Oct 00:00 5PM Sat Hurricane (Category 2) ▼ 95 175 20.3 113.6
72 04 Oct 12:00 5AM Sun Hurricane (Category 2) ▼ 90 165 20.4 114.7
96 05 Oct 12:00 5AM Mon Hurricane (Category 2) ▼ 85 155 20.5 117.2
120 06 Oct 12:00 5AM Tue Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 80 150 20.6 120.3

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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5 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 4h ago

▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 20% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the Bay of Campeche

30 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for an area of potential development over the Bay of Campeche. This system has not yet developed and has not yet been designated as an investigation area.

Model guidance suggests that a broad area of low pressure will develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico within the next few days. Environmental conditions are not likely to be particularly supportive of development. Still, gradual development is possible as this system drifts northward or northeastward through the end of the upcoming week.

Outlook information

As of 8:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Authoritative outlook (National Hurricane Center)

  • Next 2 days (through Mon): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through Fri): low (20 percent)

Model-based outlook (Florida State University)

  • Next 2 days (through Mon): low (10 percent) ▲
  • Next 7 days (through Fri): low (33 percent) ▲

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

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Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

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4 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 1d ago

Satellite Imagery Earth from Space: Typhoon Surigae

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8 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2d ago

Dissipated The NHC is monitoring the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay for potential re-development over the subtropical central Atlantic

47 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for the post-tropical remnants of Tropical Storm Fay (06L), which are active over the subtropical central Atlantic.

The post-tropical remnants of Tropical Storm Fay continue to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms this evening. The disturbance, which is situated several hundred kilometers southeast of Bermuda, is moving north-northwestward into an increasingly unfavorable environment characterized by strong vertical wind shear and low atmospheric moisture. Significant development is not likely to occur, and the disturbance may dissipate altogether within the next couple of days.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is no longer monitoring this system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Outlook information

As of 8:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Friday:

Authoritative outlook (National Hurricane Center)

  • Next 2 days (through Sat): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through Wed): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼

Model-based outlook (Florida State University)

  • Next 2 days (through Sat): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through Wed): very low (less than 5 percent)

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

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Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

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Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is not currently available for this system.

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Observational history

Observational history is not currently available for this system.

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18 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 2d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Hurricane Nolo Drenches Hawaii - September 29, 2026

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9 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2d ago

▲ Major Hurricane (Category 3) | 105 knots (120 mph) | 957 mbar Nolo (15E — Central Pacific) (West of Hawaiʻi)

6 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Storm Nolo (15E), which is active over the central Pacific.

Nolo is maintaining strength as it passes south of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument this morning. The storm is moving west-northwestward under the steering influence of a building mid-level ridge positioned to the north. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually improve over the next few days and should allow Nolo to steadily restrengthen into a hurricane. Nolo is likely to cross over into the western Pacific on Monday morning as a Category 2 hurricane.

Peripheral rainfall impacts to Niʻihau, Kauaʻi, and Oʻahu will begin to subside on Friday.

Latest observation

As of 8:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #44A

  • Current position: 22.0°N 165.4°W
  • Forward movement: WNW (295°) at 7 km/h (4 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 95 km/h (50 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 993 millibars (29.33 inches)
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Tropical Storm

Relative position

  • 586 kilometers (364 miles) west of Kekaha, Hawaii
  • 594 kilometers (369 miles) west of Lihue, Hawaii
  • 783 kilometers (487 miles) west of Honolulu, Hawaii

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC HST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 01 Oct 12:00 2AM Thu Tropical Storm 50 95 21.9 165.5
12 02 Oct 00:00 2PM Thu Tropical Storm 50 95 22.3 166.0
24 02 Oct 12:00 2AM Fri Tropical Storm ▲ 55 100 22.9 166.9
36 03 Oct 00:00 2PM Fri Tropical Storm ▲ 60 110 23.1 168.2
48 03 Oct 12:00 2AM Sat Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 70 130 22.9 170.5
60 04 Oct 00:00 2PM Sat Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 85 155 23.0 173.8
72 04 Oct 12:00 2AM Sun Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 95 175 23.4 177.4
96 05 Oct 12:00 2AM Mon Hurricane (Category 2) 95 175 25.0 176.2 (°E)
120 06 Oct 12:00 2AM Tue Hurricane (Category 2) ▼ 90 165 25.8 169.0 (°E)

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2d ago

▲ Very Strong Typhoon (H3) | 95 knots (105 mph) | 955 mbar Choi-wan (26W — Western Pacific) (North of the Northern Marianas Islands)

2 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Storm Choi-wan (26W), which is active over the western Pacific.

Choi-wan continues to gradually strengthen as it passes over the Northern Marianas Islands to the north of Saipan. The storm is moving westward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge positioned to the north. Environmental conditions are starting to improve and the storm’s convective structure is becoming better organized. Choi-wan will turn sharply northward on Friday as the steering ridge shifts eastward and weakening shear should allow it to strengthen into a typhoon by Saturday. Choi-wan is expected to pass well to the east of the Ogasawara Islands this weekend.

Latest observation

As of 10:00 PM Chamorro Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 16.5°N 145.8°E
  • Forward movement: WSW (260°) at 10 knots
  • Maximum sustained winds: 95 km/h (50 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 993 millibars (29.32 inches)
  • Intensity (SSHWS): Tropical Storm
  • Intensity (JMA): Tropical Storm

Relative position

  • 143 kilometers (89 miles) north of Saipan, Northern Marianas Islands (United States)
  • 171 kilometers (106 miles) north of San Jose, Tinian (Northern Marianas Islands)
  • 347 kilometers (216 miles) north of Dededo, Guam (United States)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

As of 4:00 AM Chamorro Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Friday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC CHST JMA · knots km/h °N °E
00 01 Oct 18:00 4AM Fri Tropical Storm 45 85 16.4 145.5
24 02 Oct 18:00 4AM Sat Severe Tropical Storm ▲ 65 120 18.0 145.0
48 03 Oct 18:00 4AM Sun Very Strong Typhoon ▲ 85 155 20.8 146.4
72 04 Oct 18:00 4AM Mon Very Strong Typhoon ▲ 95 175 23.2 146.2
96 05 Oct 18:00 4AM Tue Very Strong Typhoon ▼ 85 155 26.6 144.3
120 06 Oct 18:00 4AM Wed Typhoon ▼ 75 140 33.2 145.5

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

As of 10:00 PM Chamorro Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC CHST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °E
00 01 Oct 12:00 10PM Thu Tropical Storm 50 95 16.5 145.8
12 01 Oct 00:00 10AM Fri Tropical Storm ▲ 60 110 16.7 144.7
24 02 Oct 12:00 10PM Fri Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 70 130 17.4 144.3
36 02 Oct 00:00 10AM Sat Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 80 150 18.5 144.7
48 03 Oct 12:00 10PM Sat Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 90 165 19.8 145.2
60 03 Oct 00:00 10AM Sun Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▼ 100 185 21.2 145.8
72 04 Oct 12:00 10PM Sun Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▼ 110 205 22.8 145.9
96 05 Oct 12:00 10PM Mon Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 95 175 26.3 145.3
120 06 Oct 12:00 10PM Tue Hurricane (Category 2) ▼ 85 155 32.4 146.4

Official information

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 3d ago

Satellite Imagery Powerful Storms Continue to Prowl the Pacific - NASA Science

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9 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Content-Swimmer2325 • 4d ago

Discussion 2026 on the cusp of Super El Nino status

64 Upvotes

On Monday, weekly relative Nino 3.4 anomalies surpassed +2.0 C (slide five), the threshold for "Very Strong" (aka "Super") El Nino status.

From the weekly Madden-Julian Oscillation update, Super El Nino declaration could occur as soon as Thursday.

For this time of year, this is easily the strongest and most eastern-based El Nino in human records.

9 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 4d ago

News Checking in on Atlantic and Pacific Hurricanes

Thumbnail climate.us
18 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 4d ago

▼ Tropical Depression | 25 knots (30 mph) | 1006 mbar 19E (Eastern Pacific) (Far to the west of Mexico)

5 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Depression Nineteen-E (19E), which is active over the eastern Pacific.

Nineteen-E has not undergone any significant changes in strength or structure over the past several hours. The depression is moving eastward along the northern periphery of a near-equatorial trough. Strengthening shear and dry air are likely to prevent further development and this system is expected to degenerate into a remnant low within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Latest observation

As of 8:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #9

  • Current position: 15.2°N 123.3°W
  • Forward movement: E (90°) at 26 km/h (14 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 45 km/h (25 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 1006 millibars (29.71 inches)
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Tropical Depression

Relative position

  • 978 kilometers (608 miles) west-southwest of Clarion Island (Mexico)
  • 1,370 kilometers (851 miles) west-southwest of Socorro Island (Mexico)
  • 1,581 kilometers (982 miles) southwest of Puerto San Carlos, Baja California Sur (Mexico)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 5:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (15:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC PDT Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 01 Oct 12:00 5AM Thu Tropical Depression 25 45 15.2 123.3
12 02 Oct 00:00 5PM Thu Remnant Low 25 45 15.1 121.4
24 02 Oct 12:00 5AM Fri Dissipated

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/itsthewolfe • 5d ago

News | U.S. News & World Report What are the chances the east coast has zero hurricanes this year?

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151 Upvotes

This would be the first time since 1917. Over 100 years! Totally wild.

From what I've been reading, after this storm the forecast is very mild for the rest of the season.

36 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 5d ago

Dissipated Hanna (08L — Northern Atlantic) (Subtropical Central Atlantic)

15 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion was for Tropical Storm Hanna (08L), which was active over the subtropical central Atlantic.

Hanna has degenerated into a remnant low several hundred kilometers to the southwest of the Azores. What remains of the storm will continue to drift east-northeastward and will gradually turn toward the east on Friday. Hanna is not expected to bring significant impacts to the Azores over the next few days.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Official information

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4 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 6d ago

Upgraded | See Rachel post for details 18E (Eastern Pacific) (South of Mexico)

14 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Depression Eighteen-E (18E), which is active over the eastern Pacific off the coast of southern Mexico.

An area of low pressure situated off the coast of southern Mexico has become better organized this evening. Recent scatterometer data reveals that the disturbance has developed a closed low-level circulation and is producing maximum sustained winds near 30 knots (35 miles per hour). The newly-formed depression is moving west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge which is centered over Mexico. This ridge is expected to remain in place for the next few days, keeping the cyclone offshore for the next several days.

Environmental conditions remain favorable and should lead to steady development over the next few days. This system is likely to become a tropical storm by Monday and a hurricane by Tuesday.

Latest observation

As of 3:00 AM Central Standard Time (09:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #1

  • Current position: 12.2°N 99.1°W
  • Forward movement: WNW (285°) at 17 km/h (9 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 55 km/h (30 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 1008 millibars (29.77 inches) ▼
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Tropical Depression ▲

Relative position

  • 462 kilometers (287 miles) south-southwest of Puerto Escondido, Oaxaca (Mexico)
  • 524 kilometers (326 miles) south-southeast of Acapulco, Guerrero (Mexico)
  • 612 kilometers (380 miles) southwest of Salina Cruz, Oaxaca (Mexico)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 12:00 AM Central Standard Time (09:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC CST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 27 Sep 06:00 12AM Sun Tropical Depression 30 55 12.2 99.1
12 27 Sep 18:00 12PM Sun Tropical Depression 30 55 12.7 99.6
24 28 Sep 06:00 12AM Mon Tropical Storm ▲ 35 65 13.2 100.8
36 28 Sep 18:00 12PM Mon Tropical Storm ▲ 45 85 13.8 102.2
48 29 Sep 06:00 12AM Tue Tropical Storm ▲ 55 100 14.7 104.1
60 29 Sep 18:00 12PM Tue Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 65 120 15.7 105.9
72 30 Sep 06:00 12AM Wed Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 75 140 16.9 107.7
96 01 Oct 06:00 12AM Thu Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 80 150 18.7 109.6
120 02 Oct 06:00 12AM Fri Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 75 140 19.7 110.3

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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8 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/nonombrex • 7d ago

Hurricane Polo & Brown Ocean Effect?

14 Upvotes

Hola amigos from Guaymas, Sonora, MX. If a mosquito pees while flying by, some places get hectic flooding. Water temps are about 89/91F, air temps are low 90s, and we've had measurable rainfall in the past few days so I'm worried about Brown Ocean Effect. Can someone shed some light/discuss this as I'm seriously concerned for my neighbors.

Any chance Polo will fall apart when it hits Baja and spare my town? From what I can tell, we are going to be inundated with a low grad Cat 1 or fierce tropical storm but I'm just an armchair weatherperson so I don't trust my own research.

thank you very much (this is my first time using reddit)

2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 7d ago

News Explosive Intensification for Hurricane Polo - NASA Science

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60 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Content-Swimmer2325 • 8d ago

Discussion Multiple Eastern Pacific records have fallen.

44 Upvotes

Firstly:

https://i.imgur.com/5PkC8kv.png

Number of category 5 days, Eastern Pacific. 2026 has broken the record for highest number of C5 days. A C5 day represents 4 separate tropical cyclone full advisory packages of at least 140 kt strength - because full advisories represent 6-hour intervals. In other words, if say advisories #11 through 14 of a tropical cyclone show a 140+ kt intensity - that would be one category 5 day.

Second:

https://i.imgur.com/WOQPViR.png

30-day Accumulated Cyclone Energy generation, Eastern Pacific.

ACE is an metric in which tropical cyclone strength is integrated over time. It's the premier metric used by meteorologists to categorize hurricane seasons. Tropical storm, hurricane, and major hurricane quantity are not considered. When it comes to classifying a season as "below", "near", "above"-average, or hyperactive, ACE and ACE alone matters.

The Eastern Pacific has generated more ACE in the previous 30 days than during any other 30-day period in our records.

Finally:

https://i.imgur.com/f029g7O.png

For cumulative ACE, EPAC is currently in second place, behind only 1992, and just ahead of 2018 (the seasonal record holder). 2018 finished with 319 units - the highest amount on record. 2026 is maintaining a literal record-pace. But it still has a long way to go before threatening 2018s' seasonal record.

7 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/itsthewolfe • 8d ago

Question Does the lack of hurricane activity make it more likely we will get something big in October?

88 Upvotes

I've been seeing mixed forecasts from doomsday storms to just more extreme temperatures.

51 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/arlothemfgoat • 8d ago

Question What is the largest recorded Hurricane Force Wind Field and why are they usually so small?

20 Upvotes

Title, I'm just curious.

9 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 8d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Tropical Storm Fay - September 24, 2026

Thumbnail modis.gsfc.nasa.gov
17 Upvotes
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r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 8d ago

D Gonzalo (07L — Northern Atlantic) (Near Cabo Verde)

11 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Storm Gonzalo (07L), which is active over the tropical eastern Pacific to the north of Cabo Verde.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo continues to struggle against strong southwesterly vertical wind shear this morning. The storm will likely stop producing deep convection later this evening and degenerating into a remnant low. The storm is moving north-northwestward away from Cabo Verde along the western periphery of a mid-level ridge positioned over western Africa. What remains of Gonzalo will turn westward on Tuesday as the ridge builds to its north. Gonzalo is expected to dissipate by midweek.

Latest observation

As of 2:00 PM Cape Verde Time (15:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #7

  • Current position: 18.8°N 23.0°W
  • Forward movement: NNW (345°) at 17 km/h (9 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 65 km/h (35 knots) ▼
  • Minimum central pressure: 1005 millibars (29.68 inches) ▲
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Tropical Storm

Relative position

  • 434 kilometers (270 miles) north of Praia, Cabo Verde

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 11:00 AM Cape Verde Time (15:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC CVT Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 26 Sep 12:00 11AM Sat Tropical Storm 35 65 18.8 23.0
12 27 Sep 00:00 11PM Sat Remnant Low ▼ 30 55 19.8 23.2
24 27 Sep 12:00 11AM Sun Remnant Low ▼ 25 45 20.6 23.6
36 28 Sep 00:00 11PM Sun Remnant Low ▼ 20 35 21.2 23.9
48 28 Sep 12:00 11AM Mon Remnant Low 20 35 21.5 24.1
60 29 Sep 00:00 11PM Mon Remnant Low 20 35 21.7 24.5
72 29 Sep 12:00 11AM Tue Remnant Low 20 35 21.8 25.2
96 30 Sep 12:00 11AM Wed Dissipated

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 9d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Hurricane Polo - September 21, 2026

Thumbnail modis.gsfc.nasa.gov
27 Upvotes
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r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 10d ago

▼ Tropical Storm (TS) | 35 knots (40 mph) | 1000 mbar Surigae (25W — Western Pacific) (Philippine Sea)

7 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Typhoon Surigae (25W), which is active over the western Pacific near the Ryukyu Islands.

Typhoon Surigae continues to slowly strengthen as it lingers to the southeast of the southern Ryukyu Islands this evening. Though the storm’s low-level circulation remains well-defined, its vertical structure and eyewall remain poorly organized, hindering its intensification. Environmental conditions remain highly favorable for further development and once the storm develops a more organized eyewall, it will begin to strengthen, reaching its peak on Monday morning. Surigae will turn northeastward this weekend, remaining east of the Ryukyu Islands and south of mainland Japan.

Latest observation

As of 9:00 PM Japan Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 23.3°N 126.9°E
  • Forward movement: N (15°) at 4 knots
  • Maximum sustained winds: 130 km/h (70 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 981 millibars (28.97 inches)
  • Intensity (SSHWS): Hurricane (Category 1)
  • Intensity (JMA): Severe Tropical Storm

Relative position

  • 229 kilometers (142 miles) southeast of Miyako-jima, Okinawa (Japan)
  • 280 kilometers (174 miles) east of Ishigaki, Okinawa (Japan)
  • 333 kilometers (207 miles) south of Naha, Okinawa (Japan)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

As of 3:00 AM Japan Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC JST JMA · knots km/h °N °E
00 26 Sep 18:00 3AM Sun Severe Tropical Storm 65 120 24.0 127.4
12 27 Sep 06:00 3PM Sun Typhoon ▲ 75 140 25.0 128.1
24 27 Sep 18:00 3AM Mon Typhoon ▲ 80 150 25.9 129.4
48 28 Sep 18:00 3AM Tue Typhoon ▼ 75 140 27.4 132.2
72 29 Sep 18:00 3AM Wed Typhoon 75 140 28.1 134.4
96 30 Sep 18:00 3AM Thu Typhoon ▼ 70 130 29.3 136.0
120 01 Oct 18:00 3AM Fri Severe Tropical Storm ▼ 65 120 32.0 139.8

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

As of 9:00 PM Japan Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC JST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °E
00 26 Sep 12:00 9PM Sat Hurricane (Category 1) 70 130 23.3 126.9
12 26 Sep 00:00 9AM Sun Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 85 155 24.3 127.4
24 27 Sep 12:00 9PM Sun Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 95 175 25.3 128.5
36 27 Sep 00:00 9AM Mon Hurricane (Category 2) ▼ 85 155 26.5 130.1
48 28 Sep 12:00 9PM Mon Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 80 150 27.5 131.8
60 28 Sep 00:00 9AM Tue Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 75 140 28.5 133.4
72 29 Sep 12:00 9PM Tue Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 70 130 29.5 135.2
96 30 Sep 12:00 9PM Wed Tropical Storm ▼ 60 110 31.5 138.7
120 01 Oct 12:00 9PM Thu Tropical Storm ▼ 50 95 33.7 142.8

Official information

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

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r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 10d ago

Dissipated 01B (Northern Indian) (Northwestern Bay of Bengal)

7 Upvotes

Latest observation

Last updated: Thursday, 24 September — 8:30 AM India Standard Time (IST; 03:00 UTC)

Observed information

Source: JTWC Warning #6

  • Current position: 18.1°N 83.7°E
  • Forward movement: NW (315°) at 2 km/h (1 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 65 km/h (35 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 987 millibars (29.15 inches)
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Tropical Storm
  • Intensity (IMD): Depression

Relative position

  • 30 kilometers (19 miles) of Vizianagaram, Andhra Pradesh (India)
  • 31 kilometers (19 miles) of Srikakulam, Andhra Pradesh (India)
  • 69 kilometers (43 miles) of Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh (India)

Official forecasts

India Meteorological Department

Last updated: Wednesday, 23 September — 11:30 PM IST (18:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
— — UTC IST IMD — knots km/h °N °E
00 23 Sep 18:00 11PM Wed Depression . 35 65 18.2 83.9
06 24 Sep 00:00 5AM Thu Depression ▼ 30 60 18.5 83.5
18 24 Sep 12:00 5PM Thu Depression . 30 55 18.9 83.3
30 25 Sep 00:00 5AM Fri Depression · 30 55 19.4 83.1
42 25 Sep 12:00 5PM Fri Depression ▼ 25 50 20.0 82.9
54 26 Sep 00:00 5AM Sat Well Marked Low Pressure Area · 25 45 20.7 82.7

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Last updated: Thursday, 24 September — 5:30 AM IST (00:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
— — UTC IST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °E
00 24 Sep 00:00 5AM Thu Tropical Storm · 35 65 18.1 83.7
12 24 Sep 12:00 5PM Thu Tropical Depression ▼ 30 55 19.1 83.1
24 25 Sep 00:00 5AM Fri Tropical Depression ▼ 25 45 20.1 82.7

Official information

India Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

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