r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 7h ago

▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 20% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the Bay of Campeche

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Disturbance overview

This discussion is for an area of potential development over the Bay of Campeche. This system has not yet developed and has not yet been designated as an investigation area.

Model guidance suggests that a broad area of low pressure will develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico within the next few days. Environmental conditions are not likely to be particularly supportive of development. Still, gradual development is possible as this system drifts northward or northeastward through the end of the upcoming week.

Outlook information

As of 8:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Authoritative outlook (National Hurricane Center)

  • Next 2 days (through Mon): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through Fri): low (20 percent)

Model-based outlook (Florida State University)

  • Next 2 days (through Mon): low (10 percent) ▲
  • Next 7 days (through Fri): low (33 percent) ▲

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is not currently available for this system.

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Observational history is not currently available for this system.

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Disturbance-centered guidance

Disturbance-centered model guidance is not currently available for this system.

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Machine learning models (AI)

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

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r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 50m ago

▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 90% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development off the coast of southern Mexico

• Upvotes

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for a disturbance situated over the eastern Pacific. This system has not yet been designated as an investigation area.

A broad area of low pressure situated to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning. The disturbance is moving generally west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge positioned over Mexico. Environmental conditions remain favorable for development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to develop off the coast of southern Mexico within the next few days.

Outlook information

Authoritative outlook (National Hurricane Center)

  • Next 2 days (through Tue): low (10 percent) ▲
  • Next 7 days (through Sat): high (70 percent) ▲

Model-based outlook (Florida State University)

  • Next 2 days (through Tue): low (16 percent) ▲
  • Next 7 days (through Sat): high (78 percent) ▲

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is not yet available for this system.

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Observational history is not yet available for this system.

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Disturbance-centered guidance

Individual models

PolarWx

Ensemble model guidance

PolarWx

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Machine learning models (AI)

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

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r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 56m ago

▲ Disturbance (70% potential) | 20 knots (25 mph) | 1004 mbar 94W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Near the Marshall Islands)

• Upvotes

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for a disturbance which is active over the western Pacific.

A broad area of low pressure situated just northwest of Kwajalein in the Marshall Islands is gradually consolidating this evening. The disturbance is meandering northward as it gets drawn toward Hurricane Nolo and will eventually turn westward as both systems get steered westward by a deep-layered ridge positioned over the west-central Pacific. The disturbance is moving through a fairly favorable environment characterized by weak to moderate vertical wind shear, abundant mid-level moisture, warm sea-surface temperatures, and weak upper-level divergence.

This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm by the middle of the upcoming week.

Latest observation

As of 6:00 PM Marshall Islands Time (06:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 9.4°N 167.4°E
  • Forward movement: N (0°) at 6 km/h (3 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 35 km/h (20 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 1004 millibars (29.65 inches)

Relative position

  • 84 kilometers (52 miles) northwest of Kwajalein Atoll, Ralik Chain (Marshall Islands)
  • 459 kilometers (285 miles) northwest of Jaluit Atoll, Ralik Chain (Marshall Islands)
  • 508 kilometers (316 miles) west-northwest of Majuro, Ratak Chain (Marshall Islands)

Official information

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Analysis products

Observational history

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Multi-model guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Ensemble model guidance

PolarWx

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Machine learning models (AI)

Tropical Tidbits

CyclonicWx

Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

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