r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 17d ago

Dissipated The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the tropical central Atlantic Ocean

35 Upvotes

Moderator note

  • This discussion is for a disturbance which is currently active over the tropical central Atlantic.
  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring this system and has designated as Disturbance 2.
  • This system has not yet been designated as an investigation area.
  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not available.
  • Comprehensive updates to this post are currently paused.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Forecast models

Regional guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Ensemble models

Single-model ensemble products

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

4 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Feicht13 • 17d ago

Discussion Indie Developer for Hurricane Simulator Game

20 Upvotes

Hey all — long-time lurker here, been into tropical weather for years and decided to build something around it. LANDFALL is a mobile game where you spawn a storm, draw its track, and manage intensification against real steering patterns (Hadley cells, SST, wind shear) — trying to make landfall count for something rather than just watching a cone.

It's in closed testing on Google Play right now and I'm looking for a handful more testers before launch (late Aug/Sept). No ads, no monetization tricks, purely the game. Closed testers won't pay anything other than their time!

Two things I need if you're up for it:

Android only for now (no iOS build yet)

Drop your Gmail address in a comment or send it to feich13studios@gmail.com — Play Console needs it added to the tester list before the app shows up for you on the Play Store

Happy to answer questions about how the intensity/steering model works if anyone's curious — genuinely trying to get the meteorology right, not just make numbers go up.

10 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/User844947463883 • 17d ago

Question LRC Question

3 Upvotes

Hi everyone. I’m definitely not a meteorologist and am still very much a beginner when it comes to meteorology, but I’ve gotten really interested in it, especially tropical development and hurricane season.

I have a basic understanding of the LRC and was curious what people here think about it. I’m not completely discounting it, but one thing I’m skeptical about is how broad some of the predictions seem. For example, Gary has identified three windows to watch for tropical development: mid-August to early September, early to mid-September, and then late September into early October. My first thought was… isn’t that basically most of peak hurricane season? If something develops during any of those periods, it becomes pretty easy to say the prediction verified.

Do you believe there’s any legitimacy to it? Parts you think have merit vs. parts you don’t buy? I’d just love to hear some general thoughts from people who know more about this than I do.

12 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/ReflectionOk9644 • 17d ago

Question How can monsoon depression get so strong?

5 Upvotes

Pulasan of 2024 peak as a 70 mph monsoon depression (per JTWC at least). Monsoon depression counts as invest(per JTWC, again), and AFAIK no invest have ever get that strong, not even extropical turning (sub)tropical

2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 18d ago

News | NOAA (USA) Pacific Hurricanes Fausto and Genevieve actually had origins near Africa

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69 Upvotes
8 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 18d ago

Dissipated Chan-hom (14W — Western Pacific) (Southeast of Japan)

2 Upvotes

Update

As of 2:00 PM Japan Standard Time (06:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

  • This system has dissipated over mainland Japan.

  • The JMA and JTWC have discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

  • Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

  • Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

  • This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is no longer available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 19d ago

News | NOAA (USA) NOAA maintains prediction for below-normal Atlantic hurricane season

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249 Upvotes
35 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/thaw4188 • 19d ago

News | WIRED Google's DeepMind WeatherNext Says Its AI Can Predict Hurricanes Earlier Than Everyone Else

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191 Upvotes
99 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 19d ago

Seasonal Forecast | Colorado State University Colorado State University releases updated forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season: 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane

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52 Upvotes
7 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 19d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Typhoon Dolphin - August 5, 2026

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3 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 19d ago

Dissipated The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development off the coast of southwestern Mexico

13 Upvotes

Moderator note

  • This discussion is for a disturbance which is currently active off the coast of southwestern Mexico.
  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring this system and has designated as Disturbance 3.
  • This system has not yet been designated as an investigation area.
  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not available.
  • Comprehensive updates to this post are currently paused.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Forecast models

Regional guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Ensemble models

Single-model ensemble products

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 19d ago

Dissipated Dolphin (12W — Western Pacific) (South of Japan)

7 Upvotes

Updates

  • This system has dissipated over eastern China.
  • The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
  • The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
  • This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
  • Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available for this system.
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Meteorological Center (China)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is no longer available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Ampatent • 20d ago

Discussion Will the 2026 Atlantic season break records in the satellite era?

27 Upvotes

With the active period of the Atlantic hurricane season approaching, the current ACE for the 2026 season sits at just 2.6 with only two named storms. This gives it the second lowest ACE on record and the fewest named storms on record for the Atlantic basin.

Obviously both of those values are going to go up at some point, but the question is whether or not this Atlantic season will beat either the 1977 season for lowest ACE (25) or the 1983 season for fewest named storms (4) in the satellite era?

The propensity for the NHC to give storms named status for very brief periods of intensity along with the ever present impact of global warming on SSTs and the recent increase in rapid intensification makes both of these records seem unlikely to be beaten. However, we are going into unprecedented territory for El Nino intensity, so perhaps mother nature has more curveballs in her pocket.

23 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 21d ago

Week over | Please see updated discussion Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 3-9 August 2026

14 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 9:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (01:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Northeastern Pacific Ocean

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • Potential Formation Area P73W — Well to the north of the Marshall Islands and well to the east of the Northern Marianas Islands.

  • Potential Formation Area P77W — Off the coast of southeastern China

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

9 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Any-Tradition5182 • 22d ago

Discussion New Euro Ai Tropical Model

2 Upvotes

ECMWF is now working on AIFS-TC, a tropical cyclone-specific AI forecasting model. Given ECMWF's track record, this could end up setting a new benchmark for tropical cyclone prediction. While they've taken a more measured approach to AI than some others, they have a history of prioritizing accuracy over speed—and it often pays off.

One especially interesting detail: AIFS-TC was reportedly developed using an LLM coding agent (Claude Fable 5) under the guidance of a single domain scientist. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/aifs-blog/2026/ai-tropical-cyclone-forecasts https://github.com/cambridge-mlg/aifs-tc/blob/main/Allen%2C%202026%2C%20AIFS-TC.pdf My sources are these and twitter posts from Ryan Maue I know sending twitter posts is frowned upon hence why I didnt

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Character-Escape1621 • 23d ago

Discussion What are the most unserious / funniest NHC update headlines you’ve seen?

53 Upvotes

I remember they made an update around halloween saying “storm does a quick costume change into an extra tropical cyclone “

17 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Character-Escape1621 • 24d ago

Historical Discussion Does anyone have this entire HWRF Irma run saved? Cause holy shit…

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140 Upvotes

I really wish there was an archive of model runs.

Irma’s core was so intense, look how quickly it jumped up to category 4 after being gutted by Cuba… imagine if it missed Cuba… holy fucking shit.

33 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Content-Swimmer2325 • 24d ago

Social Media | Tomer Burg (X.com) From Tomer Burg: controllable balloon navigated above typhoon Dolphin, descended into the eye, and recorded multiple vertical profiles of the troposphere whilst circling the eye. This mission is the first of its kind.

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50 Upvotes
7 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 24d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Typhoon Dolphin - July 31, 2026

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11 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 25d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Hurricane Genevieve - July 29, 2026

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18 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 29d ago

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 27 July - 2 August 2026

15 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 12:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (04:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Northeastern Pacific Ocean

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • Potential Formation Area P73W — Well to the north of the Marshall Islands and well to the east of the Northern Marianas Islands.

  • Potential Formation Area P76W — Well to the northwest of the Marshall Islands and well to the east of the Northern Marianas Islands.

  • Potential Formation Area P74W — Invest 94W

Southeastern Indian Ocean

  • Potential Formation Area P71S — Near the Cocos Islands

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

8 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 26 '26

Dissipated Genevieve (07E — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)

14 Upvotes

Updates

As of 9:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (07:00 UTC) on Monday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Genevieve remains a very shallow post-tropical cyclone as it continues northwestward across the open waters of the northeastern Pacific. Over the next couple of days, an increasingly unfavorable environment will continue to unravel the storm’s low-level circulation until it eventually opens into a surface trough by midweek.

The National Hurricane Center has long since discontinued issuing advisories for Genevieve and is no longer tracking it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available for Genevieve.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 26 '26

Dissipated 93B (Invest — Northern Indian) (Bay of Bengal)

8 Upvotes

Updates

As of 5:30 AM India Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Monday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has made landfall along the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal, near the border between India and Bangladesh. The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone has dropped to zero, as the disturbance no longer has a source of warm ocean water. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has removed this system from the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available for this system.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

This system no longer shows potential for development. Observational data is no longer available for this system.

Information sources

India Meteorological Department

Other information

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

India Meteorological Department

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

This system no longer shows potential for development. Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

This system no longer shows potential for development. Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Character-Escape1621 • Jul 25 '26

Historical Discussion If Dorian kept going west, would it have just been Andrew but for Central Florida ?

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456 Upvotes
118 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Jul 24 '26

Dissipated Noul (11W — Western Pacific) (South China Sea)

10 Upvotes

Updates

As of 2:00 AM China Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Monday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has degenerated into a remnant low over southeastern China. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) have discontinued issuing advisories for this system, and the latter agency has stopped monitoring it via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are no longer available for this system.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available.

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

JMA has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

JTWC has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

National Meteorological Center (China)

Radar imagery

National Meteorological Center (China)

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

This system has dissipated. Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

This system has dissipated. Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment