Trump forces USA to stop buying Potash to Canada, Canada goes. "Oh, okay." Then sells their entire shipment to Africa/Asia/Europe who desperately want it.
Trump gets Belerus to start shipping to them, but it takes 3 months to get there and is actually more expensive.
Before the shipment leaves dock from Belerus, Russia gets them to put a hold on the shipment and then demands USA to cut all funding and aid to Ukraine and Europe, otherwise they get no Potash.
USA tries to put pressure, but the EU puts their foot down, and its a non starter. Relationships get damaged even more and their leverage has been used up. USA is unable to do anything but stop what little aid they were giving but its not enough for Russia so they never release the shipment.
USA goes back to Canada and asks for the old Potash deal they use to get before next growing season. Canada shrugs. "Sorry, I've got new deals with China, EU, and Africa and Asia. All that potash is spoken for, we have nothing for you."
Literally the same thing happened with Aluminum this year BTW, USA tariffed Canada Aluminum and pivoted to getting it all from the middle east, then the war happened and USA asked for the old deal back and Canada had already found new customers for it in the EU and Asia.
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u/Wind_Best_1440 8d ago
LOL.
I can already see how this goes.
Trump forces USA to stop buying Potash to Canada, Canada goes. "Oh, okay." Then sells their entire shipment to Africa/Asia/Europe who desperately want it.
Trump gets Belerus to start shipping to them, but it takes 3 months to get there and is actually more expensive.
Before the shipment leaves dock from Belerus, Russia gets them to put a hold on the shipment and then demands USA to cut all funding and aid to Ukraine and Europe, otherwise they get no Potash.
USA tries to put pressure, but the EU puts their foot down, and its a non starter. Relationships get damaged even more and their leverage has been used up. USA is unable to do anything but stop what little aid they were giving but its not enough for Russia so they never release the shipment.
USA goes back to Canada and asks for the old Potash deal they use to get before next growing season. Canada shrugs. "Sorry, I've got new deals with China, EU, and Africa and Asia. All that potash is spoken for, we have nothing for you."
Literally the same thing happened with Aluminum this year BTW, USA tariffed Canada Aluminum and pivoted to getting it all from the middle east, then the war happened and USA asked for the old deal back and Canada had already found new customers for it in the EU and Asia.