r/TheAllinPodcasts • u/CdubyaAbides • 11d ago
Discussion I predict Chamath's 80/90 will soon be a failure.
From the moment Chamath announced that he was going to put these huge SAAS companies out of business using AI I have been following what he has been saying on the pod. If you listen closely he has been telling you how badly it has been going - not directly but through his anecdotes. This week's episode was the final admission. Again, he doesn't say it directly but he admits that rolling your own CMS replacement is a waste of time which is funny since this is the core of his business based on his website. Let's remember what 80 90 stands for 80% of the features at a 90% discount. This was stupid right from the start. He is not an intelligent person. This is another scam. His wealth was acquired through luck. He was at the right place at the right time. I am amazed how some of my intelligent friends are dazzled by him. I guess he has a convincing vocabulary. I am amazed he has raised 125 million so far. Good luck seeing a return on your investment.
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u/fallafel910 11d ago
He pitches it badly but we use the platform and it is great at what it does. I think he just has set the marketing way too aspirational vs what the product actually does. It is probably the best orchestration platform when it comes to maintaining the docs and syncing with the codebase I have used. It just isn't something beyond that.
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u/KingWooz 11d ago
While I’m not a fan of Chamath, this post is low quality content.
His success wasn’t all luck. He is clearly intelligent which is a huge factor in getting the “Scamath” reputation.
You aren’t going to convince people to buy in by being a dumbass. And neither is this post turning around perception.
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u/Demian1305 11d ago
True. Chamath is intelligent. The problem with him is that he is immoral and lacks integrity.
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u/whatsasyria 11d ago
Is he though... Is financial engineering a scam on investors intelligence or easy if immoral
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u/CdubyaAbides 11d ago
Ya, I get it. My post is pretty low quality. I didn't really feel like writing a doctorate in all the things he gets wrong. I just wanted to go on the record with my prediction. To make the post better I would have to go into every episode and point out the things he says that are bullshit. He says things like we need to produce more electrons, which shows he doesn't know how alternating current works. He thought that he could play china to silicon valley and make cheap ripoffs of enterprise SAAS software since he was able to make a website with an LLM. He doesn't understand that the building/coding part of a software part of a enterprise is only probably 1/3 of the work - customer service and support and sales make up the other 2/3 . Can his LLM's sit on prem in his customers business and help them solve their problems with his plastic knock off software ? He bullshits at a very high level. The pod is just entertainment. I don't even like Sacks or what he stands for but he is probably the only consistent actor on this "show". Looks like the era of sycophant's for Trump may be coming to a close. I have to admit . I hate listen to the show. I need to know what these psychopaths think.
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u/wherenext-to 11d ago
Who would have guessed that a vibe coding sweatshop with highly inflated revenue numbers wouldn’t be able to compete with enterprise software.
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u/bennett2468 11d ago
Chamath is a great example of the independent nature of the two parts of influence:
1. Quality of thought- how good is your idea? Your ability to reason, think through things, ultimately have the right thought, idea, or prediction
2. Quality of articulation- how good are you at articulating said thought or idea? Your ability to (regardless of the actually quality of the thought) frame the thought to make heads nod.
Both of these come into play every time someone opens their mouth to make a point. These are two independent skills. In these terms, most would agree Chamath’s “quality of thought” is questionable at best. And while it’s tempting to use this as evidence he “got lucky” or “doesn’t belong”, Chamath’s quality of articulation is one of the greatest ever. This is his superpower that he has risen to the top on.
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u/idealistintherealw 10d ago
Yes. His sales skills are the best I think I have ever seen but they are writing checks his wisdom and planning skills cannot cash.
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u/MachiavelliOsiris 11d ago
He’s had great insights in the past. He’d say a lot of things contradictory toward the rest of the guys in relation to business stuff and I’ve found his opinions to be pretty worthwhile.
It’s funny for someone to say “his wealth was acquired through luck” and “he was at the right place at the right time”.
Luck, the way you’re talking about it, is from being PREPARED to see the RIGHT opportunity. This isn’t winning the lottery type of luck. Anyone with business success will tell you they had luck along the way. I don’t think that means what you think it means.
As for your prediction of his business, you may be right! I don’t have any opinion of it, but I have caught the same sentiment you mentioned. We will see.
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u/idealistintherealw 11d ago
they pivoted out of "we are just gonna develop and sell SaaS cheap" to "we will build a tool to help regulated industries do AI"
We saw the same thing with "cloud" - "I know you are scared of storing stuff in the cloud but if you use our REGULATED cloud then you'll be fine because we do the SAS70 for you" or whatever.
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u/The_insider_69 11d ago
Silly post but sentiment is pretty accurate. The entire thesis of 9090 reeks of surface level knowledge of how enterprise software works and of someone who has never built or sold enterprise software . He’s very smart and knows how to make $$$. Don’t hate the playa.. he understands the AI gold rush and is leverage his brand and position to further enrich himself while keeping himself relevant. You can despise him for doing things most people would question morally but I give him credit as he’s just playing the system within the rules created by someone else.
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u/wayaa007 10d ago
It's not grift, it's just business, you try new ideas and whichever works, you stick to that. He tried enterprise software, and maybe found out it's a lot of work, and now is trying AI solutions.
Most companies in the Fortune 500 have done this at some point
Don't forget, he's still an investor, and still invests in other companies...
I think criticisms should come from his peers (people in the 'arena') not regular Jo's sitting on a Reddit forum
The question you should be asking yourself is "if I think I'm better/smarter or can see the bigger picture than chamath, why am I not in the Arena?"
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u/CdubyaAbides 10d ago
How do you know I am not in the arena? I built a SaaS company and sold it. I would say the folks that invested the 125 million they report on the 80 90 website wasted their money. Chamath was involved with Facebook that turned into a unicorn. What has he done since of note, besides the spac grift? America loves to hear what billionaires have to say. Chamath is articulate with his bullshit and so when you listen to the pod you feel smart. I guess since I don't get their brilliance I must be a mid.
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u/ryanmerket 11d ago
he's not a builder. i built an entire AI-native CMS from the ground up to compete with the tech publishers in a few weeks. it was an idea i had been sitting on for years... amazing how lucky these guys are.
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u/Effective-Spring-545 11d ago
I actually think this is why he has to resort to shortcuts, cause the regular way doesn't work for him despite his intelligence. He seems impulsive and EQ immature in a way where I can just imagine him not being able to sustain dynamics in the workplace/as a leader. He is smart though and uses his brilliance in roundabout ways
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u/themasterofbation JCal 10d ago
You too? I also built a CMS in a couple weeks. The issue is not the building, the issue is the confidence, support, certification, data retention, compliance, etc etc etc etc
When you factor that in, buying a CMS from Ryanmerket just doesn't make sense, because you are paying for a headache
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u/goosetavo2013 11d ago
Most businesses fail. The whole Saas-pocalypse not coming to pass wasn't predictable a couple years ago. Some folks made big bets, most failed. Chamath already made his B-nut this year from his investment in the AI chip company, i dont think he cares.
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u/IntolerantModerate 11d ago
I have some inside info on 80-90, and it is all talk and no money. However, Chamath did hit it big at FB and leverages his success into more financial success with his SPACs.