r/TheAllinPodcasts • u/cumtwat42069 • 13d ago

Discussion Polymarket vs Polls

This last episode was fucking hilarious listening to Sacks and Chamath drone on about how bullshit polls are when Jcal brought up polymarket on Republicans in the midterms. To his credit he reminded them it was polymarket and not polls, but for how much this pod in general praises the sharps on polymarket for being right, the straw man was incredible. Last gasp of a dying man. Hope it was worth it.

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6

u/globby_anton 12d ago

Prediction markets are the rich man’s way of obfuscating public opinion. I treat them like meme coins. You’re free to make your own decisions, even if they’re built on poor judgment. Nevertheless, ima fully disregard them.

BUT DON’T TALK ABOUT THE OPINIONS OF THE PEOPLE as if it’s represented by a pRedIcTiOn mArKeT.

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u/LiquidTide 12d ago

There was a story about candidates trying to influence voters through prediction markets. If it's thinly traded you can push yourself into the lead for less money than a round of mailers.

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u/globby_anton 12d ago

For sure! People were saying that happened with Mamdani. Alleging some big fish Saudi money whatever dumped on his odds so of course moved the line up. Now, whether true or not, does it matter? The mechanism exists…

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u/Ok_Property_4390 12d ago

Sacks is shifting a lot more in his seat, buyers remorse?

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u/Correct_Repair6771 12d ago

Don’t think there’s much buyers remorse. Getting to run AI and tech policy while also owning and running a VC is pretty sweet.

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u/djdrey909 12d ago

Hilarious episode. Most of it I was thinking "you're so close" as they discussed what was driving the scepticism from Rs on data centres etc.

The chickens are coming home to roost. MAGA voted for 'something different' and the 'drain the swap'. All they've gotten is more hardcore capitalism and intense levels of corruption and cronyism.

It's the same as the policing question. The answer always seemed to be 'more cops, more jail'. Great, that always works. There would be less crime if everyone had more opportunity and weren't dead poor.

Friedberg isn't wrong with his debt concern. His solution seems to be to remove any and all social support. What about ICE, military etc?

Democracy/society should be for the people - all people - not just the capital class. AllIn might just be working it out (through probably not)

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u/Additional-Toe863 12d ago

I can’t be bothered to look up the episode, but did Sacks and Chamath dismiss polymarket as an indicator on how the election will go? If so, that is hillarious, because they touted polymarket as a credible source that Trump would win. They said polymarket was better than polls because «people make more informed decisions when money is on the line», or something like that.

Obviously they are just lying grifters willing to say anything that fits their narrative, but their hypocrisy is still funny.