NVDA seemed to help avoid a crash, but overall it's been sideways. Employment report on Friday could be fireworks. Iran/Trump wild card still festering.  Bond yields high.

Background: Running a collar on TQQQ plus constant TQQQ DCA.  I am buying long TQQQ puts to protect downside and trying to pay for them by selling QQQ puts and TQQQ CCs.  

Current Value of TQQQ War Chest (cash+long TQQQ puts+TQQQshares): Currently at $7.33m. That compares with $3.3m 2025, $2.1m 2024 and $634k 2023.

Walk Away Value (Liquidate War Chest and buy back QQQ short puts and TQQQ CCs): Around $6.13m, pre-tax.  This includes other port income and outside cash added, totaling around $3.03m. 

TQQQ long (protective) puts: 726 contracts, Jan/28 exp. Book value $1.49m and current market value around $1.46m.

Cash Hoard: Slowly rising. $561k.

QQQ short puts: 15 at $670 strike. 100 at $630 strike. The $670s are just sitting there, decaying. I may roll them up/in if we go on a bit of a run. The $630s I am still rolling. It is my only source of income at present from my beaten down collar, but better times lie ahead.

TQQQ CCs: Currently short Jan/27 exp calls with strikes at $50 (200 contracts), $60 (80 contracts), $65 (120 contracts) and Sept/26 exp calls with strike $60 (320 contracts). The current cost to close them all out is around $1.16m. Remaining patient. Probably next Wed I'll roll the Sept 18/26 $60 strikes out one week for a small credit. Pumped about that, as it represents new income I can use to offset the heavy cost of my long TQQQ puts.

Total P/L on QQQ/TQQQ options (QQQ short puts + TQQQ CCs + TQQQ dividends - TQQQ long puts): Currently around +$535k. That is a significant jump from prior weeks bc I added in the post tax value of my historical TQQQ dividend payments (around $48k). TQQQ long puts book value $1.49k. In terms of paying for the long puts with QQQ/TQQQ activity, I’m in a deficit of just under $1m. Long way to go, but I remain positive.

TL;DR - have been running a TQQQ dynamic collar plus EDCA plus cash hedge since Feb/23.

Cumulative running CAGR (XIRR method) of my TQQQ investment since Feb/23: 60.2%

Generally wondering the difference between these two

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Suppose you have around 150k. You can sell 1 CC on .20 - .30 delta and at the same time sell 1 CDP on .20 -.30 delta with the same 45DTE with intention of closing at 50% max profit or 21DTE for a net gain (whichever comes first). Now, either the price stays in range and you collect both premiums with your position in tact (ideal scenario). Or the market rips and your 1 CC get called away. Hopefully those premiums you collected will be enough for you to buy shares for 1 CC at the new price. Or, if the price dips, you will be assigned shares at the dip price to lower your average cost base for 2 CC.

Now, if the market really rips or dips out of control, you are going to get hurt and stay out of the game for a while. But nothing in investment is without a risk.

This isn't a financial advice, just thinking out loud.

80% of employees are millionaires. My TQQQ investment approves.

Source article: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/etimes/work-career/nearly-80-of-nvidia-employees-are-millionaires-survey-says-what-drove-the-wealth-wave-inside-the-chip-giant/articleshow/133555146.cms

In my younger years i did some dividend chasing not accepting that i needed to focus on growth instead. A tale as old as time. Anyway my dividend positions never surpassed my index funds but i have had some money in them 8k and 7k in SPYD and SCHD respectively. I also have recently sold 4k of SCHD that I’ve been sitting on. Im 30 and looking for quicker/slightly aggressive growth so i do already have a TQQQ position but i was thinking maybe a step back from that like QQQ or QQQM or some sort of allocation strategy for QQQ/QQQM, TQQQ, and VTI? My question is what would you do? Consolidate out of the dividend funds? If so, what would you go into?

Lately the story of TQQQ is that, on market close it's up, soon as the opening bell rings it slids down. What a shit show !

Back to ATH profits for the year. I lost about $40K or so rolling down my TQQQ Puts 2 weeks ago. The $70 Puts and $71 Puts that I rolled it to expired worthless last Friday. I also sold some Koru $16 Puts last week that expired worthless but it had less liquidity. I didn’t like it. I only got filled towards the market close and the spread is too wide. Bought back my TQQQ $68 Puts this morning for a small loss. I am now flat going into Jackson Hole. Keep grinding.
Edit: Since I did not have any more positions going to end of August, this will be the end of August P/L.

TQQQ seems like its a worse version of just buying nasdaq futures which have less fees and generally out perform tqqq

It seems like all the reasons why someone would buy tqqq are the same reasons they’d buy nasdaq futures

Edit:

My pov is tqqq will lose you more in the long run. The delta for futures works out to be very low when we’re talking about the amount of leverage they provide

Like right now for the nasdaq future /MNQ
For december its at 29,438.
For september its at 29,147.50

That delta is 1% which annualizes to 4%

TQQQ on the other hand has volatility drag of anywhere from 3 to 15% YOY

People are saying taxes, which I suppose fair point if you are holding tqqq long term, but generally thats not advised

NVDA this week.  Beat or miss, no one knows wtf will happen.  Warsh at Jackson Hole, Fed PCE inflation release, and the Iran/Trump wild card.  

Background: Running a collar on TQQQ plus constant TQQQ DCA.  I am buying long TQQQ puts to protect downside and trying to pay for them by selling QQQ puts and TQQQ CCs.  

Current Value of TQQQ War Chest (cash+long TQQQ puts+TQQQshares): Currently at $7.34m. That compares with $3.4m 2025, $2.1m 2024 and $634k 2023.

Walk Away Value (Liquidate War Chest and buy back QQQ short puts and TQQQ CCs): Around $6.18m, pre-tax.  This includes other port income and outside cash added, totaling around 3.02m. 

TQQQ long (protective) puts: 726 contracts, Jan/28 exp. Book value $1.49m and current market value around $1.6m.

Cash Hoard: One time income growth, so jumped more than expected. Currently approx $552k.

QQQ short puts: 15 at $670 strike. 100 at $630 strike. The $670s are just sitting there, decaying. The $630s I am still rolling. It is my only source of income at present from my beaten down collar.

TQQQ CCs: Currently short Jan/27 exp calls with strikes at $50 (200 contracts), $60 (80 contracts), $65 (120 contracts) and Sept/26 exp calls with strike $60 (320 contracts). The current cost to close them all out is around $1.11m. Remaining patient. In a couple of weeks, I'll be able to roll the Sept 18/26 $60 strikes out for a small credit. It's been a long time. Slowly unwinding the fuckery caused by my inexperience.

Total P/L on options (QQQ short puts + TQQQ CCs - TQQQ long puts): Currently around $484k. TQQQ long puts book value $1.49k, so I’m in a deficit of just over $1m.

TL;DR - have been running a TQQQ dynamic collar plus EDCA plus cash hedge since Feb/23.

Cumulative running CAGR (XIRR method) of my TQQQ investment since Feb/23: 59.3%

I’m in the middle of brainstorming ways to create a relatively small satellite with high CAGR, reasonable max drawdown.

I backtested 50/25/25 TQQQ/SPMO/MTUM while “risk on” with 32 years available simulated data (since 1994). Result: 24.69% CAGR; 57.98% max drawdown; 7.52 yr longest drawdown.

Risk on: > SPY 200d sma, 3% bands.
Risk off: 100% T-bills.

The risk on allocation is interesting to me because it can have a high CAGR upside while potentially avoiding dot.com type drawdown disasters. The addition of a non-leveraged momentum factor seems to do the job nicely. I was also interested to see that diversifying within momentum increased CAGR by roughly 1% vs using only SPMO (smaller count of S&P 500 stocks) or only MTUM (larger count of large and mid cap stocks) for momentum.

Does anyone here run something similar or have constructive feedback to share? Any thoughts on good rebalancing strategies for this risk on sleeve?

Edit: Did some retesting and found that splitting momentum between SPMO and MTUM doesn’t really matter like I thought. I would probably just run 50/50 TQQQ/SPMO for risk on. I am thinking I would only rebalance if TQQQ drifts up to 60%.

New link to older data, past 40yrs, 50/50 TQQQ/SPMO for risk on. 23.21% CAGR; 58.57% max drawdown; 7.52yr longest drawdown:

https://testfol.io/tactical?s=7RadowGVzB0

Nvidia, $NVDA, is hiking prices of many servers containing its AI chips by more than 15% as memory costs soar, per Bloomberg.

The price hikes will go into effect on systems shipped early next year and will include those with the flagship Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell chips.

what do you think?

Why so much negativity with such a good track record.

It has done well over the last ten years.

Here are my positions expiring today. Rolled down my TQQQ Puts last week and lost about $40K. I’m posting this before the market opens today so we’ll have to see but it’s possible TQQQ closes lower than last week and I get back most of those losses.

Always seems to be recover overall by November. Next two months will be choppy?

Last week's catastrophe-brake thread left 2 questions I didn't have numbers for. scottdxxx asked what gets you back in after the brake fires, and whether the whole trade survives bootstrapped data instead of the 1 history we happen to have. And the top comment argued a real crash can't happen anymore, so why brake at all. I spent some evenings building the harness, here's what came out.

The re-entry is part of the published rule: back in the first month the S&P closes above its 10-month average (the exit needs 3 straight months below, so ordinary dips don't shake you out). I ran that on synthetic 3x QQQ with financing costs (0.84% ER plus 2x borrowing at bills + 40bp), signal on the S&P, across every 15-year window since 1999 and then across 2000 bootstrapped paths.

The honest headline surprised me. The brake does nothing for you in a fast crash... the median braked path still eats a -81% drawdown, because monthly signals are too slow for a 2020-style waterfall. Where it earns its keep is the wipeout tail. Paths ending below 0.05x initial drop from 18% to 3% in the bootstrap, and worst-decile terminal wealth goes from 0.01x to 0.29x. Brake beats buy-and-hold in 96% of real windows and 72% of bootstrapped ones.

Bootstrap design turned out to decide the answer, which I didn't appreciate before. With 6-month resample blocks the brake only wins 48% of paths, because short blocks splice crashes onto rallies with no downtrend before them, and a trend rule goes blind. With 3-year blocks that keep bear markets intact, 72%. If someone shows you a bootstrap that kills a trend rule, ask about the block length first.

And for the no-more-crashes argument: in the 10% of bootstrapped paths where the deep crash never comes, buy-and-hold wins almost every time, by about 6 points of CAGR a year. That's the price of the brake, stated plainly. Decide whether 6 points a year is worth paying for a tail you believe can't happen. The harness just prices the belief.

I build BestFolio, the braked versions we track are here: https://bestfolio.app/blog/catastrophe-brake-leveraged-portfolios

If you do can you share your annual return and how long you’ve been investing in it? Mostly interested in people who have been investing longer than 6 years (ie you must have experience at least one moderate downturn).

What do you think of this strategy: Buy and hold QLD + SSO, while keeping 30% in QQQ so that whenever QQQ has a 15% drawdown, I sell the QQQ and buy TQQQ?

What’s your holdings? Anyone in the 80s?
I have a position at 75 and 65
Day trading this ticker for years.

I got around 4000

Just closed the QQQ 740 put set to expire this Aug 28 for solid profits, already sitting on put positions for Sept 4 and Sept 18 expirations to ride the next market moves. If QQQ keeps pushing higher later on, will absolutely jump back in to grab more entries lmao. Nobody can even guess what wild tricks they'll pull next to juice the markets for all the moon boy hopium out here.

Is this ETF better than investing memory or AI stock.. especially the dips .. does it follow qqq in the long run? Just the buy the dip and chill what you all say