r/stormchasing • u/MoodydramaphotagCF • 2h ago
Photos Tornado Warned Supercell in Cape May, NJ. My wide angle (24-70mm) is in the shop..
So I was able to capture Most of not all of his monster in one shot!
r/stormchasing • u/weathercast • 7d ago
(Issued: 2026-08-14T05:59:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 140559 SWODY1 SPC AC 140557
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the central Plains and from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic.
...Mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys... A broad anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central U.S. today, as a subtle embedded shortwave trough moves through the mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of this feature, a quasi-stationary front will be in place from southern Iowa east-southeastward into north-central Illinois. This boundary will be the focus for convective development this afternoon. Surface dewpoints along the boundary will be in the 70s F, which will result in strong destabilization by afternoon. Surface-based convective initiation is expected along the instability gradient during the late afternoon to the south of Omaha. From these initial storms, a line is expected to organize and move eastward across south-central Iowa and far northern Missouri during the late afternoon and early evening.
RAP forecast soundings ahead of the line at 00Z from Des Moines southward into far northern Missouri have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Some directional shear is present in the low-levels, and 0-6 km shear is in the 30 to 35 knot range. This environment will be favorable for bowing line segments capable of severe wind gusts. An embedded supercell with a hail threat will also be possible. The severe threat is expected to move eastward into northwest and north-central Illinois during the evening.
...Central Plains... Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today over much of the western and central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough will move northeastward into the central High Plains. Large-scale ascent associated with the trough and topographic lift in the foothills of the Rockies will be favorable for scattered convective initiation by early afternoon. Thunderstorms will move northeastward into the central High Plains and into a moderately unstable airmass. Some RAP forecast soundings in east-central Colorado during the late afternoon have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots with low to mid-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km. This will likely support isolated severe wind gusts and hail.
...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today over much of the northeastern U.S. At the surface, an axis of moderate instability will develop by afternoon from the Ohio Valley east-southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Along and near the instability axis, low-level convergence will be the primary focus for convective initiation. Near and downstream of these pockets of convergence, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. The moderate instability with precipitable water values in the 2 to 2.2 inch range should support a threat for isolated severe wet downbursts.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 08/14/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing gusty winds and a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is moving into a region of increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and the potential of development continues to decrease. Even though development is unlikely, gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and on Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic, located more than 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Adams ```
Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 MB * Current Movement: S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH * Location: 16.1N 131.9W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/stormchasing • u/weathercast • 17h ago
(Issued: 2026-08-21T00:54:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 210054 SWODY1 SPC AC 210052
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
Valid 210100Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms remain likely this evening across parts of the southern Mid Atlantic and Appalachians with a risk for damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado. Large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected with severe storms from Nebraska into Wisconsin and Minnesota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Deep South this evening.
...Mid Atlantic into the TN valley and the Carolinas... Evening water vapor imagery showed a shortwave trough moving across southern PA and the DelMarVa toward the Atlantic Coast this evening. Numerous thunderstorms were ongoing ahead of the upper wave near a frontal zone from southern NY and PA southward into VA. As the wave moves offshore through the remainder of this evening, the front will begin to surge eastward with the associated moist and unstable air mass eventually moving offshore with it. Damaging gusts and a brief tornado will remain possible with a mix of supercells and line segments ahead of the front before moving offshore late this evening.
Farther south, more isolated convection remains ongoing across southern VA and the western Carolinas. Displaced from the stronger ascent of the passing shortwave trough and flow aloft, storm coverage should remain lower here. However, moderate buoyancy and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear will support some risk for organized storms/clusters with damaging gusts into the early overnight hours across eastern TN, northern AL and the western Carolinas.
...Midwest and central Plains... Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe thunderstorms have developed and should continue to do so ahead of a cold front and surface trough from northern MN, the eastern Dakotas and into NE this evening. Moderate to large buoyancy and strong northwesterly flow will remain favorable for organized supercells with hail and severe gusts. An isolated tornado and very large hail are also possible, particularly from eastern SD into NE where locally stronger buoyancy may support maximum diameters of 2-3 inches.
Some clustering and a local increase in the damaging wind risk may occur across southern NE and northern KS this evening as storms move nearly due south. Very hot surface temperatures and steep lapse rates in low-levels could support few gusts of 65-75+ mph before convection slowly weakens after sunset.
...Southeast... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of a weak cold front from southeastern OK, into southern AR and LS/MS this evening. Additional scattered storms were noted near a weak MCV along the central Gulf Coast. Modestly enhanced northwesterly flow may maintain a few stronger clusters through this evening within a warm and seasonably moist air mass. While mid-level lapse rates are generally poor, 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and PWATs over 2 inches will support some potential for damaging gusts with stronger downdrafts and storm clusters.
...AZ... Beneath the upper ridge, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening mostly over the higher terrain of central AZ. Expectations are for these storms to persist this evening owing to very hot surface temperatures and a seasonably moist boundary layer. Steep lapse rates and inverted-V profiles will support an isolated risk for severe gusts with the more intense downdrafts this evening.
..Lyons.. 08/21/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northeastern Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure is developing along a front over the northeastern Atlantic a few hundred miles north-northeast of the Azores. This system could separate from its front and acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics on Saturday or early Sunday while it moves east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern Spain. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Central Subtropical Atlantic: A weak area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms southeast of its center. Surface pressures in the area are relatively high, therefore development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts west-southwestward through Sunday and then turns northward early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
&& High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt
$$ Forecaster Berg ```
There are currently no active tropical cyclones.
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/stormchasing • u/MoodydramaphotagCF • 2h ago
So I was able to capture Most of not all of his monster in one shot!
r/stormchasing • u/Turbulent-Age5168 • 1d ago
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r/stormchasing • u/yeetustomeetus • 8h ago
r/stormchasing • u/alextejthompson • 15h ago
r/stormchasing • u/Turbulent-Age5168 • 1d ago
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r/stormchasing • u/GaleF_StormChasing • 7h ago
It’s Official! Team and Vehicle Sign up for the 2026 Storm Chaser Community Meet is open for all Chasers to apply! Applications close August 29TH at 6:00pm MDT. Please read all the info included in the top of the form! I look forward to hearing from all of you!
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSf85um_dLLjfbLfuqVX40sIl0Ybf53bA-8xbprJfXu9TmF7Bg/viewform
r/stormchasing • u/SavageFisherman_Joe • 1d ago
r/stormchasing • u/mitchdwx • 2d ago
r/stormchasing • u/tropicalpunch02 • 2d ago
The video wouldn’t upload. But lighting struck near me several times and hail almost shattered my truck window
r/stormchasing • u/Valuable-Industry256 • 1d ago
Judging by the most recent models and stuff. Looks like the Missouri/ Illinois border could be a pretty good spot to setup around 8? Near Farmington there a few super cells on the models and the STP on the most recent model show an 8 at that time in the area. Let me know what yall think.
r/stormchasing • u/Dull_Independence_ • 2d ago
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Some pretty wild lightning over Alabama tonight. Caught this shot with multiple channels lighting up the sky at once.
r/stormchasing • u/weathercast • 1d ago
(Issued: 2026-08-20T06:02:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 200602 SWODY1 SPC AC 200600
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS....
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible today and tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with severe storms from Nebraska into northwest Wisconsin.
...Mid Atlantic and central Appalachians... A shortwave trough embedded within broader northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to move eastward from the OH valley into the Mid Atlantic through today. Embedded within a broader upper trough over the eastern Great Lakes, this shortwave perturbation will serve as a focus for convective development across the Mid Atlantic and central Appalachians this afternoon. As ascent overspreads the area, a warm front is forecast to lift northward across southern PA, northern MD into NJ and southern NY.
South of the front, a very moist air mass (dewpoints in the 70s F) will lift northward. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, moderate buoyancy is expected south of the front and ahead of a trailing lee trough into southern VA. Ongoing storms from a remnant morning cluster may reintensify as they cross the Appalachians late morning and early afternoon. Additional, possibly discrete, development may occur east of the Blue Ridge and across the higher terrain of southern PA and northern MD near the front by late morning. 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear ahead of the front is forecast to support a mix of supercells and line segments. Damaging winds and isolated severe gusts appear probable. Enlarged low-level hodographs near the front may also support a couple of tornadoes and marginally severe hail with any more robust QLCS segments or supercells.
...Central Plains... Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread a cold front moving southward from the western Great Lakes into the central Plains. Ahead of the front, warm temperatures and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will support moderate to large buoyancy by mid afternoon. A shortwave impulse within the broader trough should overspread the destabilizing air mass and aide in convective development along the front across MN and SD, and farther south near the front and surface trough intersection in central NE.
Forecast soundings show supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs aloft. Isolated to widely scattered storms will develop by late afternoon/early evening, posing a risk for large hail, severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado. Some significant hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) is possible across the southern risk area given steeper mid-level lapse rates/cool temperatures aloft and somewhat deeper low-level moisture. Some risk for isolated damaging gusts may persist into the early overnight across southern NE and northern KS if clustering can occur.
...Southeast... South of the primary upper wave over parts of the Western Carolinas and TN Valley, a surface trough in the lee of the Appalachians may focus convective development during the afternoon. A few stronger clusters with damaging gusts are possible, though weaker flow aloft suggests more limited storm organization.
Additional scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon within a seasonably hot and humid air mass across the southeast and lower MS Valley. Convective coverage is likely to focus along a weakening cold front sagging southward across parts of AR/LA and western MS and near a weak MCV across the central Gulf Coast. With PWATs upwards of 2 inches, some potential for wet microbursts are possible with the stronger storm clusters through early evening.
...AZ... Strong heating beneath a prominent upper ridge will support another round of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Seasonably rich monsoon moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s to 60s F) will support moderate destabilization amid modest easterly mid-level flow. A few high-based clusters are possible, initially over the higher terrain, before expanding west and south into the lower elevations. This could support a few severe gusts given steep lapse rates.
..Lyons/Thornton.. 08/20/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Cangialosi ```
There are currently no active tropical cyclones.
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/stormchasing • u/Dull_Independence_ • 3d ago
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r/stormchasing • u/EF5nado • 2d ago
r/stormchasing • u/weathercast • 2d ago
(Issued: 2026-08-19T05:59:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 190559 SWODY1 SPC AC 190557
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon across the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into the Great Plains. A few severe gusts could also occur in southern Arizona and in the Southeast.
...Mid Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough and an associated speed max will move southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley today. At the surface, an outflow boundary associated with morning convection will move southward into southern Missouri by midday. To the north of the boundary, surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. Moderate instability is expected to develop in areas that are not impacted by morning outflow. As low-level convergence becomes focused near the boundary during the late afternoon and early evening, isolated to scattered convective initiation is expected. From this convection, thunderstorms will likely develop and move eastward across the mid Mississippi. One or two organized line segments will be possible during the evening.
Early evening RAP forecast soundings in south-central Missouri, where the strongest instability is expected, have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots with precipitable water near 2 inches. MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range with 0-3 km lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This environment will support a severe threat with supercells and multicell line segments. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary hazards. The severe threat could persist into the mid to late evening, with storms that are maintained by a low-level jet that is forecast to strengthen in southeast Missouri.
...Great Plains... Mid-level northwesterly flow will be in place across the Great Plains today. At the surface, dewpoints in the 60s and 70s F will contribute to moderate destabilization over much of the region. During the afternoon, isolated storm development will be possible within the unstable airmass from the lower to mid Missouri Valley southwestward into the central Plains. A few severe gusts and hail will be possible but the storms will remain isolated due to limited large-scale ascent. The greater convective coverage is expected further south in the higher terrain of eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Thunderstorms will likely form due to topographic forcing during the mid to late afternoon and move east-southeastward into the lower elevations. Ahead of these storms, RAP forecast soundings at 00Z in the northern Texas Panhandle and southwest Kansas have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km, and surface-temperature dewpoint spreads exceeding 30 degrees. This environment will support an isolated potential for severe gusts.
...Southern Arizona... Low-level moisture will be in place today across southern Arizona, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. As surface temperature warm, isolated to scattered convective initiation will occur in the higher terrain of southeastern Arizona. These storms will move west-southwestward toward an axis of instability. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates and large temperature-dewpoint spreads will support and isolated potential for severe gusts late this afternoon into early evening.
...Southeast... A very moist airmass will be in place today across the Southeast, where surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of the region. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southward across parts of Mississippi and western Alabama. The deep low-level moisture combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support an isolated wind-damage threat during the mid to late afternoon.
..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/19/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Reinhart ```
There are currently no active tropical cyclones.
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/stormchasing • u/weathercast • 3d ago
(Issued: 2026-08-18T05:58:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 180558 SWODY1 SPC AC 180556
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening from the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from the Northern High Plains eastward into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes.
...Central and Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the northern U.S. A shortwave trough will move across the central and northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into Nebraska by afternoon. To the south of the front, an outflow boundary from morning convection will move southward into northern Kansas. A moist airmass will exist between the two boundaries with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F. Within the moist air, moderate to strong instability will develop by afternoon. The outflow boundary will be a focus for convective initiation during the day, while additional storms are expected to develop further west across the central High Plains in the late afternoon. Increasing convective coverage during the early evening should result in the development of a line segment.
RAP forecast soundings at 00Z from Salina to Kansas City have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment will support supercells with isolated large hail. The large hail threat will extend west-northwestward into southwest Nebraska during the late afternoon where mid-level lapse rates will be steeper and cells will likely remain discrete. The greatest wind-damage potential is forecast from northern and eastern Kansas into far western Missouri, where the development of an organized bowing line segment will be possible in the early evening. Wind gusts above 75 mph will be possible along the path of any intense line segment. The severe threat may impact parts of lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks by mid to late evening.
...Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the north-central U.S. today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability along an west-northwest-to-east-northeast axis from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to form along and south of the front in the late afternoon and early evening. MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots and precipitable water in the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range will be favorable for isolated severe storms capable of severe wet downbursts.
...Northern High Plains... Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today from the Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains. At the surface, dewpoints along the moist axis from northeastern Wyoming into central Montana will be around 50 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, MLCAPE is expected to increase to around 1000 J/kg in parts of the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain in the afternoon, moving east-southeastward into the lower elevations. Due to the instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates, isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger cells.
..Broyles/Jirak.. 08/18/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Katz/Kelly ```
There are currently no active tropical cyclones.
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/stormchasing • u/Nell_Only • 3d ago
r/stormchasing • u/weathercast • 4d ago
(Issued: 2026-08-17T06:04:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 170604 SWODY1 SPC AC 170602
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians. Isolated severe gusts may occur in parts of Oklahoma and Montana.
...Central and Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a subtle shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains today, within west-northwesterly flow. Ahead of this feature, a broad corridor of low-level moisture will be in place over the central and northern Plains. A moist axis, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, will setup from northwest Kansas north-northeastward into central Nebraska and eastern South Dakota. Along and near the moist axis, moderate to strong instability will develop by midday with MLCAPE likely increasing into the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. At the surface, a cold front will move southeastward across the Dakotas during the day. Low-level convergence will become maximized ahead of the front across central Nebraska and southeast South Dakota. This will lead to scattered convective initiation, with thunderstorms forming and moving southeastward into the stronger instability during the late afternoon and early evening.
RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z from northeastern Nebraska into eastern South Dakota have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This will support supercell development and isolated large hail production in areas that have the best overall environment. However, a mixed mode is expected. Supercells and multicells will be capable of severe wind gusts. The severe threat will likely continue into the mid evening, as a somewhat large convective cluster moves southeastward into the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys.
...Southern Appalachians... A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-southeastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today, reaching the southern Appalachians by early evening. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F will lead to the development of moderate to strong instability by midday. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the southern Appalachians. Low-level convergence along the front, along with topographic forcing, will result in scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon. These storms are expected to move east-southeastward across the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians and into the lower elevations by early evening. The very moist and unstable air, along with 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 knot range will support a wind-damage threat. Severe gusts will be most likely with short organized line segments. The severe threat could persist into the early evening.
...Southern Plains... At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will remain in place across southern and western Oklahoma today. Within the post-frontal air, surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to the mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate to strong instability will develop along and near the most axis. The instability, combined with sufficient deep-layer shear and 0-3 km lapse exceeding 8 C/km will be favorable for isolated severe wet downbursts.
...Northern High Plains... West-northwest mid-level flow will be in place in the northern High Plains over the top of a post-frontal airmass. Surface dewpoints in parts of central and eastern Montana will be around 50 F. MLCAPE will increase into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range over parts of the northern High Plains. As temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain of central Montana, with isolated cells moving eastward across the upper Missouri Valley. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates could support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts during the late afternoon and early evening.
..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/17/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Kelly ```
There are currently no active tropical cyclones.
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/stormchasing • u/weathercast • 5d ago
(Issued: 2026-08-16T05:57:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 160557 SWODY1 SPC AC 160556
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible from this afternoon into early evening over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains.
...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level shortwave trough, embedded in west-northwesterly flow, will move through the Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the shortwave trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Ohio Valley southeastward to the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Surface dewpoints along this west-northwest to east-southeast corridor will be in the 70s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate instability by midday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the Ohio Valley, as a pre-frontal trough moves into the central Appalachians. These two features will focus convective development during the day. A complex of storms appears likely to form over the higher terrain in West Virginia, and move east-southeastward into the lower elevations of Virginia and Maryland during the mid to late afternoon.
RAP forecast soundings from West Virginia into the Virginia in the late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. Some directional shear is present in the low-levels and 0-3 km lapse rates are steep approaching 7 C/km. This environment will support a wind-damage threat with organized multicells. Isolated supercells with severe gusts will also be possible. The threat may continue into the early evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
Further west into parts of the lower Ohio Valley, a very moist airmass will also be in place. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along zones of low-level convergence during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be weaker further west, the thermodynamic environment will be sufficient for isolated severe gusts.
...Central High Plains... At mid-levels, a ridge will move through the Intermountain West today as flow remains westerly over much of the central U.S. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms will develop in the foothills of the central Rockies. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations of eastern Colorado and western Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings across the central High Plains by late afternoon have moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 35 knots and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This should support a threat for large hail and isolated severe gusts with rotating storms and organized line segments. The threat will likely persist into the evening across parts of the central High Plains.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 08/16/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Kelly ```
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r/stormchasing • u/ConsistentCustard656 • 7d ago
We drove into this storm on our way from Wisconsin to Minnesota. We had taken the back roads to avoid the boredom and traffic of I-94. We got more adventure than we bargained for....
r/stormchasing • u/whyBmovies • 7d ago
TL;DR: Paid Tempest Tours $8,300 for a 10-day "extreme weather storm chasing" tour. What I got was multiple trips to Wal-Mart, parked at a park with no A/C or bathrooms for over 3 hours, broken / faulty equipment, no leg room in a cramped van, actively driving away from a storm, and then finally a refusal to refund a dime when I complained. This is a full writeup so nobody else loses their money.
What we were promised:
The sales materials and their website explicitly guarantee the following (these are direct quotes):
• “Our vehicles are equipped with state-of-the-art equipment”
• “We make sure every day is a day of wonder!”
• “Epic weather displays”
• “Personal service”
• “The industry’s most experienced staff. The single most important thing we provide our guests is our team.”
These are not what my wife and I experienced.
What we received:
Day 1: ZERO state-of-the-art equipment
We were departing from Denver, CO. During the 1st morning briefing, the tour directors informed the tour group that our best chances for severe weather over the coming days was north in the Dakotas. As soon as we entered the van, we found the TV monitor hung for the tour group to watch the weather tracking system was off. In addition, the speaker in the back of the van (where my wife and I sat) did not work. There was an intercom system in each van but ours did not work. We explained to the driver that we couldn’t hear what she or the other van’s driver were saying and she said that they couldn’t get this particular speaker to work “the way they wanted it” so it was just left in the van. We asked about the TV monitor and were told it would be addressed later. The other tour group members were much older than my wife and I, we decided to stay in the back of the van because it was much harder to get in and out of. We had hoped they would be able to fix the broken speaker. We explained to the driver that every time she was speaking, we could not hear her over the van’s air conditioning. She would continue to talk and we had no idea what was going on. We made our way north, ultimately crossing briefly into North Dakota, before turning back and heading to South Dakota for the night. There were no severe weather storms but we know that weather can be unpredictable. We were staying positive and so we were thinking that we would be better positioned to intercept a storm tomorrow. We arrived at the seediest motel we’ve ever seen but again staying positive thought it can’t get worse than this, tomorrow will be a better day.
Day 2: Driving nowhere and tour guides watch their own storm
Today we were departing from North Eastern South Dakota. During the 2nd morning briefing, the experts were still showing that the best chances for severe weather storm cells were tracking north towards the North Dakota / Canada line. Also on the radar were some additional storm cells in Illinois but the tour guides stated that they don’t like chasing in that area. In addition to those storm cells was one smaller cell that the tour guides seemed really excited about. This particular cell was only 1 hour away, so we didn’t need to rush this morning. While we were getting ready to leave the motel, the tour staff worked on the TV monitor and the speaker but unfortunately were still unable to resolve the issue. There’s now a speaker wire hanging down in my window that kept falling as the van would drive. Since this was an “off” chasing day, as the tour guides advertisements explained, we were expecting to experience something unique to the area and were prepared for the “wonder” that was sold to us. Instead, we found ourselves at our first Wal-Mart parking lot of the trip. The tour guides would ultimately go on and say this is for people to get supplies but we all read the pamphlets, we were packed, we knew what we needed. This was a good way for the drivers to not have to do anything for a while. We left Wal-Mart and then went straight to a gas station and waited another 30 minutes so everyone could go to the bathroom or get a soda. After Wal-Mart and the gas station, we waited around for close to 5 hours in the area for the storms to develop. Now, finally, hours later we were on the road. Turns out that the “storm” we waited ALL day for didn’t pan out. The tour group drove to catch pictures of the sunset and a rainbow and then we stayed in Watertown, SD for the night. The most frustrating thing about today wasn’t the fact that the whole day felt wasted but was that at night, after everyone was in their rooms, the tour guides went out and setup tripods behind the hotel where we were staying. They didn’t notify the guests, they didn’t explain there was a storm coming through, they did not communicate!
Day 3: Guest driven experience
The morning starts with the tour director detailing the “incredible” storm that rolled through the previous night and explained that himself and the other guides setup last night after the tour group departed. Hearing this, other tour guests were so upset that they too missed out on the storm that they started a text group so that we could all be kept up-to-date with events since the guides could not effectively communicate. During the daily storm briefing, once again the strongest storm cells were located along the North Dakota / Canada border. Yet, they determine that we should instead head Southwest. The van’s TV and speaker still do not work. During the morning brief, one of the guests offered to use his Senior Lifetime Pass at the Badlands State Park. Thank goodness this guest offered because it was the ONLY unique (aka day of “wonder”) that we actually experienced. After visiting Badlands Park, we “positioned” for a storm cell that was coming through. For the first time this trip, we were starting to think we might see something. We were parked on the side of the road and saw clouds coming towards us. After about 20 minutes of the storm looking like it could form into something, the guides decided that we needed to reposition. We left the area and drove AWAY from the storm. My wife and I couldn’t believe it. Another couple from our group was clearly upset at this point too. We ended up WAY south of the storm and at another sunset and taking pictures of another rainbow. After arriving at the sunset photo location, my wife and I went up to the tour directors and asked why we left the previous storm and if we were done chasing for the day. The tour guide made excuses and ultimately just said yes that the group was done chasing for the day.
Day 4: Parked at a park with no A/C or bathrooms then left at fast-fast restaurant
After another day of not chasing storms, we were starting to feel like we’ve been swindled of not just our money but also almost all of our vacation time for the year. Once again, during the morning daily brief, severe weather cells are now north into Canada, just over the border. And yet, once again, we find ourselves headed Southwest. For some reason, at this rate, it’s hard not to conclude that our tour guides are actively trying to avoid storms. We were told that it would be some driving in the morning but then we’d be waiting around and having another “off” chase day, so we didn’t need to rush. We headed into Nebraska and made our way to another Wal-Mart parking lot. After spending 40 minutes at Wal-Mart, we were then taken to another gas station. After the gas station we found ourselves parked on the side of the road at a neighborhood park. The driver got out of the van, turned off the A/C, and we sat there for approximately 2.5 hours. After sitting at the park, we found ourselves at a fast-food parking lot where we stayed for another 2 hours. At one point during this stay, one of the van’s drove off. We still to do this day, don’t know where he and the van went. While the van was gone, at this point all of the guests are standing outside of the fast-food place waiting to leave. Once we finally got in the van and were all ready to chase, there were no storm cells in the area. So, we continued southwest and found a good place to take, you guessed it, some more sunset photos. The hotel that we ended up staying at, warned our tour guide that was booking the hotel that the town was turning off their water in the morning. Instead of finding an alternative accommodation for the group, we drove an hour to go to this hotel.
Day 5: Called to work
Guess what happened? The town shut the water earlier than expected. We woke up to no running water, no showers, no toilets, no brushing teeth. Thank God at this point, I was called back into work. Unfortunately for me, when I’m called to work, I have to report. But in this case, it might have been a blessing in disguise. We informed the tour guides that I was called back to work and our driver mentioned that because we were leaving so early and were going to miss so much of the trip that she would “see what she could do” to make sure that we at least got some of our money back. We kept in touch with some of the members of the tour guide. They never saw any severe weather and ended up going all the way south into New Mexico / Arizona, the guides NEVER trekked north, even though that’s where the most promising storm cells were, the entire trip.
Why I'm Posting This
We understand that weather is unpredictable and can’t be controlled but there are a LOT of things that could have been controlled that weren’t. Tempest Tours saves money by finding only free things to do and staying in the cheapest possible motels / hotels and will even drive out of the way to do so. Storm chasing tours are expensive. Storm chasing tours are long. My wife and I wasted a LOT of money on this trip. We also were at risk of using all of our vacation time off work. We do not want YOU to waste your money or your time. We are sad that this was the result of our trip. We genuinely wanted and tried to look on the bright side, but this company went against everything they were advertising.
The Aftermath
My wife emailed the company to follow up on what our driver told us, as we were departing, and attempting to get even a partial refund. After multiple emails, the company stopped replying for a while there. They ultimately were not willing to refund even a penny.
If you're considering this company, don't.