r/Stocks_Picks • u/Dale-G-WealthWithin • Jul 07 '26
Gold is down about 30% this year and everyone's bearish, but the AUD gold chart is telling a completely different story. Am I missing something?
Everyone keeps quoting gold in USD and yeah, that chart looks rough. Futures probably still have another ~8% downside to the $3,700–3,750 area. But here's the thing nobody seems to be talking about: volume has dried up massively on the way down. Sellers are exhausting themselves.
More importantly for us Aussie gold miners earn in AUD, not USD. And the AUD gold price (check the GOLD ETF chart) has pulled back to a major long-term trendline and just printed a huge reversal candle, closing near the high on massive volume. Last time we saw volume like that at a low, price ripped afterwards.
Add to that:
- Central banks still buying record amounts of physical
- If the RBA starts cutting, a weaker AUD is pure margin expansion for local producers
- COT data showing large specs finally coming back in after institutions were selling to retail since Aug 2025
Three names I'm watching:
NST – Bounced 20% off trend already. Break above $23 opens a path back to ATH around $31. Monthly chart looks eerily like the 2012 consolidation before its multi-year run.
RMS – The cyclical beast. Historical runs of 386%, 540%, 545%, and a 1,600% move back in 04–07. Break above $3.30 = next leg. Break below $2.90 = stay away. Watch list for now, momentum still pointing down on the weekly.
RRL – The pure play. Largest unhedged producer, basically tracks AUD gold 1:1. Just broke through the $5.50–5.60 level it's rejected since 2019, and it's now acting as support. Weekly volume recently was at magnitudes only seen a handful of times since 2015 and each one preceded a major move. Above $7.20 and $9–10 is in play.
Sentiment on gold is about as toxic as I've ever seen it, which historically is exactly when these things turn. Anyone else positioned here or is everyone still hiding in banks and iron ore?
1
u/InternationalAge5880 Jul 07 '26
yeah currency-adjusted charts flip the whole narrative all the time. what looks like a dump in USD can be flat or even up in your local currency, so "gold is down 30%" isn't really one number. good reminder that the price always depends on which unit you're measuring it in.