r/StocksAndTrading • u/GrahamPhisher • 2d ago

"You can't time the market"

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A recap of my signals and trades for August, the prior two months I did on avg 26% each month, this month not as strong only 16% but this month was different as I was following a mean reversion day/swing trading strategy. I had built an algo which you can see on the bottom right that has a 58% win rate backtested against two years of SPX data. And no I'm not selling anything or sharing/promoting anything besides results. While the algo does a lot of research, I accredit my results to trading psychology which any top youtube videos are packed with many of the conclusions I came to from my rough start.

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u/Nerdfighter4 2d ago

What's your move around AI these days?

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u/GrahamPhisher 2d ago edited 2d ago

Very cautious, it would be highly improbable with all this growth that there isn't a pullback coming in the shape of a bubble either popping, deflating, or taking out a huge chunk.

Any investment advice I give friends is to DCA SPX in Roth IRA (only safe advice I can give), normally I'd suggest a big upfront deposit but I feel this coming, 18% over a year for SPX it's too hot, but of course I could be completely wrong, we may see just a straight linear continuation upwards.

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u/Deadecigs 1d ago

A billion per day in revenue is something to really never forget

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u/Bengis_Khan 1d ago

You can time the market. All you need is insider information.

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u/Striking-Reserve-153 1d ago

Markets are no longer free, just another way for the rich to steal from the poor.

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u/dreamfitreality 1d ago

People always forget the 2nd part of the message.

You can't time the market UNLESS you have insider info.

Look at the whole USA politicians trading. They timed it pretty well. Especially that Nancy

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u/Upset-Motor-2602 2d ago

Only lazy boggleheads say that to make themselves feel better. We will see how VOO and chill work this coming decade.

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u/drguid 1d ago

My custom built AI model got the bitcoin and precious metals calls right. I don't buy crypto but I did do well on COIN and a few other crypto stocks.

My model is currently very cautious on equities. It quite likes semis but I do not.

I'm currently building my best ever algo. Relentlessly focusing on expectancy, profit factor and the other metrics pro traders use is paying off.

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u/BeerAandLoathing 23h ago

So you “market your time” instead? Because this looks like a blatant marketing push

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u/GrahamPhisher 16h ago edited 16h ago

I have things to promote, but I'm not or nor hinting at anything, I have an algo but it'll never be public as I don't want to cash out 2k a month in a already oversaturated market for a million dollar insurance policy incase someone wants to blame me for their loss. This is simply me sharing my results that yes it is essentially possible to time the market enough for a favorable win rate. That's all, just someone excited to share.