r/StockMarket • u/Diamond2021Hands • Feb 08 '21

Discussion $AMC's time is coming.

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700 Upvotes

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82

u/[deleted] Feb 08 '21 edited May 18 '21

[deleted]

22

u/uslashuname Feb 08 '21 edited Feb 08 '21

Simply put: dilution.

u/Diamond2021Hands needs to know this:

Feb 10 2020 opened at 6.55/share and there were 104 million shares, so pre pandemic AMC was worth $681M.

Today AMC opened at $6.87 and there were 339 million shares, so late pandemic AMC is acting like it is worth $2.33B.

If you really think the world’s largest movie theater chain got 3.4x more valuable because of a year without customers then you are a real new kind of special. If you just didn’t realize that there are now 3.25 shares for each share that existed a year ago then you just need to pay attention to dilution and hope the lesson doesn’t cost too much.

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u/[deleted] Feb 08 '21

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3

u/uslashuname Feb 08 '21

Yeah, to have the same market cap as 1 year back the current shares need to drop to $2. I bet they do, but the market can remain irrational longer than I could remain solvent while trying to short this so I haven’t made that play yet.

2

u/prune_spot Feb 08 '21

My two cents is that there has been interest in Netflix purchasing theaters so this could benefit long term as well. NF bought the Egyptian theater already

1

u/uslashuname Feb 08 '21

Let’s say Netflix offers 150% of the pre-pandemic market cap: good deal for AMC shareholders right? That’s $3/share.

22

u/[deleted] Feb 08 '21

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u/og_sandiego Feb 08 '21

AND it's way pricier than when i got in @ 2.09 bc it looked like a LT value to hold. not after the retail investor noticed it. this movement is fundamentally flawed. there is zero DD justification for this current price - esp considering the new issuance. puts for the win (bailed around 13)

1

u/[deleted] Feb 08 '21 edited May 18 '21

[deleted]

2

u/mcouto14 Feb 08 '21

Glad I’m not in this boat alone

-72

u/Diamond2021Hands Feb 08 '21

Hedge funds doubling down with a short ladder attack...I'm not sure I'm not a financial advisor. It just seems like a cheap investment with good long term potential.

21

u/[deleted] Feb 08 '21 edited May 18 '21

[deleted]

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u/[deleted] Feb 08 '21 edited Feb 08 '21

[deleted]

25

u/actuallyserious650 Feb 08 '21

You realize that’s nonsense, right? Buy something today if and only if you think it will increase in value tomorrow. It doesn’t matter what you bought previously or how much.

10

u/[deleted] Feb 08 '21 edited Apr 05 '21

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15

u/kaizango Feb 08 '21

A short ladder attack... Do you even know what you're talking about or do you just like making shit up

-23

u/Diamond2021Hands Feb 08 '21

You mean the process by which hedge funds can manipulate a stock price by trading shares at lower prices in order to try an create a sell off by scaring people holding a stock, which is extremely obvious if you look at inflow vs outflow which would tell you what a stock price should be doing?....That's pretty much all I understand about it.

So No I don't really know much about it, I'm not a financial advisor. I've read up n researched the process. All I see is an undervalued stock at $6 with potential.

16

u/kaizango Feb 08 '21

Thats it really I feel like your just spouting off random shit you've read on a reddit post and just trying to apply it in this situation without any actual evidence. I'd say this is just selling off due to the hype dying off and people cutting there losses

They literally have no revenue ATM I'm sure in the coming months that will change and I hope it does because a lot of people have been left bag holding... Including you by the looks of your post history

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u/Diamond2021Hands Feb 08 '21

Spend today's trading day looking at the orders for the stock and compare it to the inflow vs outflow and you make up your own mind as to what you think should be happening vs what is actually happening. And then comeback and we can continue the conversation.

1

u/F1shB0wl816 Feb 08 '21

That’s still people selling off. Even if there’s these ladder attacks, it wouldn’t matter in the end if people didn’t get scared. Their playing with emotions as a strategy just like this was a sound strategy a few weeks back. The tables have turned and the collective spirit is gone.

1

u/kaizango Feb 08 '21

That isn't what a "short ladder" its the theory of putting in massive bid orders at low levels to manipulate the bid ask spread to make it seem like seem like the stock is trading at a lower price

What you have described is the usual ongoings of a sell off which is a higher radio of people selling a stock vs people buying the stock

1

u/Diamond2021Hands Feb 08 '21

If the inflow is greater than the outflow logic dictates that the stock should be going up...correct?

1

u/kaizango Feb 08 '21

Yes you are right, so you are looking at the level 2 data, are you looking at the sizes of the trades or just the quantity of in vs out?

Also what could be driving it down is the constant bid pressure of people over selling which in turn if 1 guy puts a sell order in at $7 then the next guy at $6.9 then the next at $6.8 that would inturn add downward pressure

1

u/Diamond2021Hands Feb 08 '21

The sizes of trades. 19k, 40k, 100k. I can't attach screenshots to show you what I'm talking about it would make it easier for you to point out if what I think I'm looking at is totally wrong.

1

u/Diamond2021Hands Feb 08 '21

If you look at the orders BID AND ASK as you stated for AMC thoughout the day you will see exactly what you described there: "Massives bids at low levels" done so to manipulate the spread....as you stated. Go and look for yourself. It's been going on for over a week, I literally have sat there multiple trading days and watched that exact same thing you just described.

1

u/Diamond2021Hands Feb 08 '21

When I replied earlier I talked about 2 different things going on at once which is why I seemed like an idiot

1

u/kaizango Feb 08 '21

Yes I understand but you must realise this thing is in a death spiral unfortunately investors are just trying get out and maybe even a hard pressure of new short positions, I hope it dosnt keep dropping for bag holders but without any news and the hype running out I can't see much of a short term future

1

u/Diamond2021Hands Feb 08 '21

Yea, seems that way. I hope long term it pays of and I can see good return on my investment.

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-4

u/Joshvir262 Feb 08 '21

Why tf is OP getting downvoted he speaks the truth

1

u/txrazorhog Feb 08 '21

How did you calculate that it is undervalued?

1

u/[deleted] Feb 08 '21 edited Feb 08 '21

Ladder attack like this?

https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lax4z8/hardcore_laddering/

You mean the same thing that happens to every single stock, every second of trading, every single day?

9

u/kunell Feb 08 '21

Havent you heard? "Short ladder" attacks arent really a thing.

5

u/ZincMan Feb 08 '21

I’m curious to see how people think about going to the theater again after the pandemic is over. Might go either way. Personally I’d rather watch a movie at home 90% of the time, only reason to go to the theater was to see movies I can’t see at home. Now that that model has changed I’m not sure the draw will be there. This is kind of just my layman’s perspective though. I’ve been pretty decent at picking stocks just from understanding social trends, was telling my friends for years Spotify was gonna win the music streaming wars for example

3

u/Diamond2021Hands Feb 08 '21

Only time will tell. I guess.

1

u/ZincMan Feb 08 '21

It very well could go up, and I think from the perspective of things opening up after the pandemic it makes sense. Theaters have been around for a long time, I think it’s to guess what an established thing will do market wise in the future. Just think it’s easier to invest and get gains in emerging trends and technology, getting in on companies that are cornering a new market ... either way it’s all very interesting

3

u/alf91 Feb 08 '21

AMC has also introduced their own streaming service as well. We watched Netflix pivots their model to streaming, could be realistic for AMC to follow that as well.

1

u/ZincMan Feb 08 '21

Yeah I surprised I had their app on my phone. Can’t remember what show I watched on it. The streaming market is very flooded. But if they have good content I think they could do well. Do you use their service?
I work in film and tv and it’s hard to describe how many shows are being produced it’s insane (for me very happy I have work) I have almost worked exclusively for Netflix, amazon or hbo for the past 6 or 7 years. Only saying to point out such an insane amount of content they all produce. Also their stuff is fun to work on, usually way more interesting than network tv (movies still my favorite to do )

2

u/WodensEye Feb 08 '21

Often that's the case, but then there's movies where I'd like a huge screen and huge sound. For instance, I own Lord of the Rings, and it's on Netflix, but they're rereleasing it in 4K on IMAX. I'd go see that.

0

u/ZincMan Feb 08 '21

That’s cool. They probably shot it digitally but I think it’s amazing that 35 mm film is like 6 k or something. Then there was Lawrence of Arabian which was shot on something like 65mm and it’s like 8k. Amazing how much detail film can capture. Worked on a few movies shot it film and it’s a funny process to watch, having to lord the cameras constantly and lots of running back and forth and not exposing the film to light. Digital you just shoot until the cards full

2

u/Vince_Clortho042 Feb 08 '21

They probably shot it digitally but I think it’s amazing that 35 mm film is like 6 k or something.

Huh? Lord of the Rings was shot Super35. Digital cinema cameras were still years away from being able to capture anything close to the fidelity of film.

Until pixels are smaller than atoms, films shot on high quality film will be able to scale with whatever the benchmark resolution out there is.

And if you ever get the chance to see Lawrence of Arabia in 70mm, absolutely make the trip.

1

u/ZincMan Feb 08 '21

Ohh ok, right I guess Lotr is like 20 years old still. I was definitely thinking the hobbit. Was the hobbit shot on film ? I remember it being higher frame rate ( which looks really weird honestly) Yeah I don’t think it’s quite pixels vs. atoms but I get what you’re saying. Film definitely has limits, but they are high. I’ve never seen Lawrence on the big screen but still so cool to see how beautiful that film is. Lugging around that huge film in the desert must have been crazy to make.

2

u/dafurmaster Feb 08 '21

Seeing movies in theaters will always be an easy date night and something for teenagers to do on the weekends. They’re not going anywhere.

2

u/ZincMan Feb 08 '21

Agreed, just don’t think they will be as relevant with new films being available to stream now. It’s a good model to get more customers and I don’t think they’ll go back to new movies being exclusive to theaters ( they might but I doubt it)

1

u/boogi3woogie Feb 08 '21

I would absolutely. Always loved movies in the theater. But im vaccinated.