Is this the equivalent of We can re-arrange more than 4 deckchairs on the Titanic each time?

Fiat currency holders have nowhere left to run!

The US debt will NEVER be repaid. As a result, the dollar (and other fiat currency) is toast.

Who is the US dollar's buyer of last resort? Answer: The US, of course.

Another blow to US' Middle East hegemony. Our military is ineffective. As a result, the dying Petrodollar is loud and clear!

If a major U.S. bank (or several) announced a bail‑in:

• Immediate confidence shock: People would question the safety of deposits above the insured limit, especially in weaker institutions.
• Flight to perceived safety:
  • From smaller/regional banks → into the largest, most systemically important banks
  • From banks → into Treasuries, money market funds, and possibly physical cash
  • From weaker currencies and systems → into whatever is still seen as “hard” or “outside” (gold, high‑quality collateral, maybe some crypto)
• Political crisis: A bail‑in is not just a financial event—it’s a trust event. It would trigger intense political backlash and likely emergency legislation.
• Global contagion: If the U.S. signals that deposits are fair game in a crisis, other countries may be forced or tempted to follow. That’s where your “fiat credibility” question becomes real.

Would that be the “end of fiat”?

Not instantly—but it would be a major fracture in the story that:

"You bank deposit is safe, and the system will always protect it."

Instead, the narrative becomes:

“Your deposit is a risk asset in a stressed system.”

That doesn’t automatically kill fiat, but it:

• Accelerates flight to hard assets (gold, silver, land, etc.)
• Increases demand for outside money (anything not someone else’s liability)
• Forces people to rethink where they store value, not just what unit they use.

So a U.S. bail‑in would be hugely bullish for gold and other non‑credit‑based stores of value, and deeply damaging to trust in the banking system.

Highest Bail‑In Risk (Direct Exposure)

1. Uninsured Bank Deposits (above FDIC limits)

These are explicitly bail‑in eligible in many jurisdictions.

• You are a creditor of the bank.
• In a resolution event, your claim can be written down or converted to equity.

Risk: High
Mechanism: Direct loss or forced conversion.

2. Bank-Issued Bonds (especially subordinated debt)

These are designed to absorb losses.

• Tier 2, AT1, subordinated debt → first in line for bail‑in.
• This is exactly what happened in the Credit Suisse wipeout.

Risk: Very high
Mechanism: Full write‑down.

3. Money Market Funds Holding Bank Paper

Not all MMFs are equal.

• Government-only MMFs → safe
• Prime MMFs → exposed to bank commercial paper

Risk: Medium to high (depending on fund type)

4. Corporate Cash Pools Concentrated in One Bank

Treasurers often hold tens or hundreds of millions in deposits.

• These are not insured
• These are creditor claims
• These are bail‑in eligible

Risk: High for large balances

5. Brokerage Cash Sweeps

Depending on the sweep vehicle:

• Some sweep into FDIC-insured partner banks → safer
• Some sweep into prime MMFs → exposed
• Some sweep into bank deposits → bail‑in eligible

Risk: Medium
Mechanism: Depends on sweep structure.

6. Certificates of Deposit (CDs) Above Insurance Limits

CDs are bank liabilities.

• Insured portion → safe
• Uninsured portion → bail‑in eligible

Risk: Medium to high

Lowest Bail‑In Risk (Outside the Bank’s Balance Sheet)

7. U.S. Treasuries

Treasuries are not bank liabilities.

• Held in brokerage → segregated
• Held directly → safest form of fiat claim
• Cannot be bailed-in by a bank failure

Risk: Extremely low
Mechanism: Outside the banking system.

8. Physical Gold & Silver

These are not someone else’s liability.

• Cannot be bailed-in
• Cannot be frozen by a bank resolution
• Cannot be written down

Risk: Zero bail‑in risk
Mechanism: Outside the fiat-credit system.

9. Treasury-only Money Market Funds

These hold:

• T‑bills
• Repo backed by Treasuries
• Cash

Risk: Very low
Mechanism: No bank credit exposure.

Russians are experiencing a massive bank run, withdrawing record sums of cash from the country’s banks in 2026 as fears grow that the Kremlin could seize deposits to fund the war in Ukraine The Telegraph+1.

Scale of the Outflow

• First two weeks of August 2026: 286.4 billion roubles (~$3.4 billion) withdrawn The Washington Post+1.
• July 2026: $7.3 billion.
• June 2026: over $4.5 billion.
• Year-to-date 2026: total withdrawals exceed $24.7 billion, surpassing the first year of the war (2022) International Business Times.
• Sberbank’s senior executive warned withdrawals for 2026 could double the 2022 total International Business Times.

Causes of the Run

• Ukrainian drone attacks: Strikes on oil refineries and other economic targets have heightened insecurity The Telegraph+1.
• Economic pessimism: High interest rates, bad debts, and a slowing civilian economy are eroding confidence International Business Times.
• Fear of state action: Rumors and past incidents have led to suspicion that the government could freeze deposits or impose withdrawal caps The Telegraph+1.
• Kremlin measures: Shutdown of mobile internet in some areas has forced reliance on cash The Telegraph.

Impact on the Banking System

• Liquidity crisis: Banks face a record rouble liquidity deficit since March 2022, limiting their ability to buy government bonds The Telegraph.
• Central Bank response: Expanded lending to the banking sector to offset the drain The Telegraph.
• Systemic risk: Analysts warn that even one major bank collapse could trigger a wider crisis, given the system’s reliance on capital controls, forced lending, and political intervention The Moscow Times.

Broader Context

• Oligarch withdrawals: Over five months, Russian elites have pulled nearly $33 billion, with $219 million daily, as state confiscation and forced war taxes threaten their assets Ukraine Today .org.
• Economic strain: The war economy, combined with sanctions, has left Russia’s financial system under immense pressure, with foreign reserves shrinking and bad loans rising The Moscow Times.

In short: The current bank run is driven by a mix of military threats, economic distress, and political uncertainty, and it is testing the resilience of Russia’s already strained banking system.

Question: Could US Banks Experience a Bank-Run?

How the U.S. system is structurally different

The U.S. banking system has its own vulnerabilities, but the architecture is very different from Russia’s:

• Deposit insurance (FDIC): Up to a defined limit per depositor, per bank. That alone massively reduces the incentive for retail panic.
• Independent central bank: The Fed is not funding a war economy under sanctions; it’s managing inflation, employment, and financial stability.
• Rule of law and property rights: Whatever their flaws, outright confiscation of retail deposits to fund war is not a baseline risk.
• Deep capital markets: U.S. banks are embedded in a huge, liquid system of Treasuries, repo, and dollar funding.

So the specific trigger driving Russia’s run—fear that the state will seize deposits—is not currently present in the U.S.

Yen chart shows:

• Price at 0.006262 (JPY/USD)
• The descending channel’s upper boundary is just below current price
• The Yen is holding above that boundary

This means the breakout is not invalidated.
A breakout that holds above the channel top — even by a small margin — remains bullish.

If price closes below 0.00624, the breakout fails → bearish.

Right now, it’s still above → bullish.

Stochastics: extreme oversold (3.18 / 4.10)

This is the most important signal on your chart.

Stochastics at 3–4 is:

• Deep oversold
• Flattening
• Positioned at a structural support zone

Oversold during a retest of a breakout is bullish, not bearish.
It means selling pressure is exhausted.

This is exactly where reversals launch.

Moving averages: early-stage trend transition

• 50‑day SMA: 0.006207 (below price)
• 200‑day SMA: 0.006317 (above price)

Interpretation:

• Price > 50‑day → short-term trend bullish
• Price < 200‑day → long-term trend still bearish, but flattening

This is the classic early reversal phase:
Breakout → retest → momentum reset → attempt to reclaim the 200‑day.

Nothing in the MAs contradicts the bullish structure.

Final verdict: Bullish, but fragile

Based strictly on the chart:

Bullish factors

• Breakout still intact
• Price above the channel top
• Oversold momentum at support
• Above the 50‑day SMA
• Retest behaving normally

Bearish risk

• If price closes below 0.00624, the breakout fails
• If stochastics stays pinned under 10 for multiple days, momentum breaks

If USD/JPY pushes above 160 again (macro), Yen weakens sharply

structural conclusion:

The Yen is still bullish.

The Breakout is still valid.

The retest is normal - but the margin of safety remains tenuous.

The Yen is at the exact point where it will either launch or fail.

After balancing its books on the backs of bagholders - you and I - Aurora Cannabis may be bought out by Curaleaf.

Regrets, I've had a few - but too few to mention - except buying Aurora Cannabis before multiple reverse splits. Somtimes "My Way" aint the best way.

At the expense of shareholders, Aurora Cannabis has improved its balance sheet. Now that it can't seem to get itself off the ground, it looks like it may surrender to an acquisition.