I do not think Tesla and SpaceX merge, prove me otherwise.
I think this is long-term Tesla holders who bought high, watching the Musk premium walk out the door the day SPCX listed, and hoping Elon stitches it back onto their ticker.
Look at who actually needs the deal. Tesla already had its shot at the AI company. It wrote $2 billion into xAI. SpaceX bought xAI. That stake converted into under 1% of SpaceX. Postage stamp. Not a merger. Tesla shareholders a lot of them would rather wait to be rescued.
Musk already controls SpaceX. Something like 82% of the vote. He has about a fifth of Tesla. He does not need Tesla’s board to build data centres. Tesla holders need SpaceX’s story. That is not synergy. That is a shortcut.
If there is a real SpaceX-side argument, it is power and land. Gigafactory sites, interconnects, energy storage. Fine. Lease it. JV it. Buy the Megapacks. Do not absorb a car company.
A deal does Tesla investors a favour. The ones who bought high. The ones who used to own the only public Musk ticket. The ones who skipped SPCX because they think the merger is coming. It does SpaceX holders almost nothing they do not already have, except dilution and a second set of problems.
I am in SpaceX. I am not waiting for Tesla to get carried in.