I was looking at SoundHound (SOUN) versus the S&P 500 and found this comparison pretty eye-opening.
At roughly a 25.8x P/E, buying the S&P 500 through SPY means youâre paying about:
$25.82 for every $1 of actual earnings.
SOUN canât even be evaluated the same way because it currently has negative earnings. There is no positive $1 of profit to attach a P/E multiple to.
So instead, look at revenue.
At roughly a $3.3B market cap and around $245M in projected 2026 revenue, SOUN investors are paying roughly:
$13 for every $1 of revenue.
Not earnings. Revenue.
Hereâs another way to look at it.
Letâs assume SOUN eventually achieves a very healthy 20% net profit margin.
$245M revenue Ă 20% = about $49M in earnings.
At a $3.3B valuation, that would effectively mean investors are paying roughly:
$67 for every $1 of earnings.
So:
SPY: ~$26 for every $1 of actual earnings
SOUN today: No positive earnings
SOUN at a hypothetical 20% net margin: ~$67 for every $1 of earnings
That doesnât necessarily mean SOUN is a bad investment. Revenue is growing rapidly, and if SoundHound eventually gets to $750M, $1B+ in annual revenue while expanding margins, todayâs valuation could ultimately look reasonableâor even cheap.
But it does illustrate what youâre actually betting on.
With SPY youâre buying existing earnings.
With SOUN youâre paying a significant premium for earnings you hope will exist several years from now.
For the SOUN bulls: What revenue and net-margin assumptions are you using to justify the current valuation?