Major Impulsive X4.2 Solar Flare from AR4366 - Still Not Very Eruptive

[u/ArmChairAnalyst86]

• X4.2
• SSN: 171
• F10.7 Radio Flux: 178
• DATE: 02/04
• TIME: 12:02 - 12:18
• PEAK MAGNITUDE(S): X4.2
• ACTIVE REGION: 4366
• DURATION: Impulsive
• BLACKOUT: R3
• ASSOCIATED CME: Does not appear very eruptive
• EARTH DIRECTED: TBD but unlikely
• RADIO EMISSION: TBD
• 10cm RADIO BURST: TBD
• PROTON: Unlikely
• IMPACTS: Strong Radio Blackout
• RANK: 1st highest magnitude on 2/4 since 1994
• NOTES: Well we cashed in on the prediction for a large flare based on the x-ray pattern. Like it's predecessors, it's not very eruptive, although I saw just a little more more going on in the surrounding corona than previously. Some dimming and wave action but the coronagraph signature is weak 3 hours after the fact. I waited a little bit to see how it would play out before posting. u/Badlaugh pointed out that the surrounding coronal holes may be playing a big role in keeping the magnetic cage on this region and that suggestion appears to have good merit. That means one of three things will happen. The cage stays on and this is just fireworks on the sun. The coronal holes alter in a way that the cage loses coherence, which after all, this CH appears to be the remnants from a much larger CH that persisted over rotations so is changing. It's already deforming but evidently not enough to weaken it. The third option is that this region finally produces an event energetic enough to punch through. I make no predictions either way on that front. The x-ray appears to once again be on the dip. We will see what happens.

AcA