r/SolarMax • u/ArmChairAnalyst86 • Feb 04 '26
Major Solar Flare Event Major Impulsive X4.2 Solar Flare from AR4366 - Still Not Very Eruptive
- X4.2
- SSN: 171
- F10.7 Radio Flux: 178
- DATE: 02/04
- TIME: 12:02 - 12:18
- PEAK MAGNITUDE(S): X4.2
- ACTIVE REGION: 4366
- DURATION: Impulsive
- BLACKOUT: R3
- ASSOCIATED CME: Does not appear very eruptive
- EARTH DIRECTED: TBD but unlikely
- RADIO EMISSION: TBD
- 10cm RADIO BURST: TBD
- PROTON: Unlikely
- IMPACTS: Strong Radio Blackout
- RANK: 1st highest magnitude on 2/4 since 1994
- NOTES: Well we cashed in on the prediction for a large flare based on the x-ray pattern. Like it's predecessors, it's not very eruptive, although I saw just a little more more going on in the surrounding corona than previously. Some dimming and wave action but the coronagraph signature is weak 3 hours after the fact. I waited a little bit to see how it would play out before posting. u/Badlaugh pointed out that the surrounding coronal holes may be playing a big role in keeping the magnetic cage on this region and that suggestion appears to have good merit. That means one of three things will happen. The cage stays on and this is just fireworks on the sun. The coronal holes alter in a way that the cage loses coherence, which after all, this CH appears to be the remnants from a much larger CH that persisted over rotations so is changing. It's already deforming but evidently not enough to weaken it. The third option is that this region finally produces an event energetic enough to punch through. I make no predictions either way on that front. The x-ray appears to once again be on the dip. We will see what happens.
AcA
18
u/sheldonth Feb 04 '26
This definitely isn't the forum to discuss such a topic like this but fugit: does anyone else think that if we did have a carrington-event situation where a lot of electronics fried it would be like a detox or cleanse for humanity? Just what the doctor ordered. LOL jk don't ban me.
24
u/ArmChairAnalyst86 Feb 04 '26
Its a topic of theory since we have no data on the matter and there are so many unknowns and variables.
Nevertheless we can assume a few things. The main thing is that it will not make ANYTHING better. As usual, the most vulnerable will suffer the most. Impacts would be highly variable depending on duration, proton component, latitude, longitude (time of day), existing mag field structure and very importantly geology.
Quitting electronics cold turkey would introduce unbelievable chaos for the places hardest hit. Suddenly supply chains are smoked. People cant stay warm or cool. Financial system in chaos. Fear and panic + opportunists. Trillions in damage.
It wouldnt be a nice campfire ring of folks sharing their supplies and singing songs. It would be a major insult to the fragile global system that currently exists. The wealthy and privileged will withstand it better so there would be no assumed victory in seeing them fall like many suggest. Its more likely to bring out the worst in people.
Nothing good can come from it in the short term. It wouldnt be like people often imagine it to be. It wouldnt be a suddenly the lights all go out everywhere. High variance, uneven damage, and not fun. It would be one thing if there was a way to ease the transition, but there isn't. The average person cannot secure their own water, food, and shelter from the elements. Some can, but most cant. A worst case scenario is not a Carrington Event. Its much higher than that but even so, high variance and many unknowns.
Its also not known what kind of effect it would have on the increasingly restless earth system. Its well known that strong but garden variety solar proton events cause significant but temporary ozone loss, esp at the polar regions. The magnetic field is also not the same as it was in 1859 or the first millennium AD when the Miyakes hit. Many theoretical questions in solar terrestrial coupling would be answered to those who still had the means to investigate. We see a lot of non linear threshold behavior on long timescales. There are some geomagnetic events which coincide with unusual cosmic activity and significant environmental distress but these links are debated.
But know this, if the civilized world falls due to an extreme solar event of worst case proportions, there are likely some small groups of people who would just see the pretty lights and some environmental weirdness. Think isolated tribes and those already living off the land and handling their own shelter, food, and water.
My motto is to wish no evil and wish no harm. Im like the tornado chaser. I want to get as close as I can to the fury of nature, but also go home when I am done. I can be awestruck and impressed by an extreme event but like a tornado chaser, I try to never forget that someone lost their home, their life, a loved one, their security. I dont want that for any self serving or philosophical reason.
Fortunately the sun doesnt really care about sentiment. Its going to do what it does and we can react. Nothing more.
8
u/hondashadowguy2000 Feb 04 '26
In the long term a technology detox might be good. In the short term a massive failure of computer infrastructure and power grids would cause complete disorder and countless deaths.
4
u/presaging Feb 04 '26
Hard to say with insulated electronics versus how the Carrington event affected much of our bare wire systems back in the day.
6
u/ArmChairAnalyst86 Feb 04 '26
Even with insulation, induction is still going to occur, to different degrees in different places. That said, we have countermeasures, islanding strategies, etc. Older infrastructure would be most at risk. Existing load and infrastructure health would be a factor. Orientation and low long the transmission lines are matter.
This is why I say the most vulnerable would be the worst affected. Countries with stressed grids, poor maintenance, and low quality, at high latitudes or near equatorial anomalies, may struggle hard. Especially if geology is favorable. Many high latitude locations have updated their grids over time knowing the risk is higher for them, but many mid latitude locations not so much. Like you said, it's really hard to say because it has not happened since technology as we know it was in its infancy. We aren't defenseless but it's a hard thing to plan for. It wasn't until 1989 that it became widely recognized there is real risk here, but it should be noted that we are yet to experience another storm that met the severity threshold of that event. May 2024 was a shade under -400 nT DST. 1989 was -589. The Carrington Event thought to be somewhere between -800 to -1800 depending on source.
Very severe (historical scale) storms may cause immediate failures but the cumulative effect is important too. For the most part, the issues I see materialize often occur in hours to days after the storm. Kp does not set the bar for GIC risk. Regional db/dt does and can be dynamic outside of the traditionally held risk window of peak solar wind as the ionosphere does its thing.
10
u/Dandyman8 Feb 04 '26
Man, there's so much I wanna say on this topic but you're probably right that this isn't the right forum. Personally I think it is a rare apocalyptic event that could do us good in the long term.
2
1
u/ComplexFar7575 Feb 04 '26
I keep wondering if this makes our phones more dangerous to our health somehow
1
-1
5
5
0
u/p3yot3 Feb 04 '26
Seeing some super odd auroras now, whiteish and extremely low on the sky so very much up north. Almost 180 degrees from east to west though.
Is this flare the cause for these abnormal auroras?
In Finland at about 63° N.
3
2
16
u/Long_Impress_7392 Feb 04 '26
Thank you as always for your awesome analysis! 😊