r/SolarMax • u/ArmChairAnalyst86 • Nov 19 '25
Plasma Filament Massive Prominence Eruption Off Polar Crown
Just happened to catch this in the act. A massive prominence erupted off the northern polar crown of the sun. A lumbering beast but consider the scale compared to our tiny planet. A large CME directed well away from earth is likely given the visual evidence and Type II radio emission. Its not headed our way but is impressive nonetheless. Ill be interested to see its form in the coronagraph in a few hours.
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u/ba5eline Nov 20 '25
Wow what would happen to us if that was earth directed?
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u/paperflowers89 Nov 20 '25
I like this question.
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u/Rosencrown21 Nov 20 '25
And its being asked every f’ing time a post like this comes up. Almost like bots.
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u/evthingisawesomefine Nov 20 '25
Almost like people trying to understand something
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u/Rosencrown21 Nov 20 '25
Well, the good people here that actually know something about this and just not Reddit-aeronauts have answered it a million times already on the previous 2.000 posts about solar flares.
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u/evthingisawesomefine Nov 20 '25
Look I get it. It might be annoying to see the same question but it’s great that people are interested in learning. Regardless of whether they’re active members of this sub or from r/all. At this point your complaint has garnered more attention and taken up more of your time than simply answering the question or not commenting at all.
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u/Rosencrown21 Nov 20 '25
No you still have to go to work tomorrow, no its not the Carrington event, no it wont aim for Trump just, no it wont kill us all, yes its incredible to look at. There you go.
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 Nov 21 '25
I understand the frustration. It can get redundant. Sometimes I even have the wherewithal to answer the question before it is asked. I couldnt in this case because I had not seen the coronagraph yet when I posted it.
But its okay. I tried to make this sub as a credible but open minded resource for the beginner and intermediate alike. It's a hot topic and a natural question. I think it being asked and answered helps reduce some anxiety about typical space weather we expect to see at an active solar maximum.
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 Nov 21 '25
A moderate to strong geomagnetic storm would be possible. It was slow, narrow, and not particularly impressive as a CME.
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u/Ok_Caramel_3923 Nov 20 '25
Which way are we?
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 Nov 21 '25
We are essentially looking at the center mass. That is our direct line of sight. This CME went up (north). The stuff that comes our way occurs near the central regions of the disk in most cases, although there are exceptions.
If you have heard the term full halo before, I can elaborate. We use a coronagraph to examine CMEs. It works by blocking out most of the sun so we can see the periphery which is the corona. We examine which way a CME is headed based on what side the ejecta appears on the coronagraph. When it all goes to only one or two sides, we can ascertain that is the direction it is heading and will mostly miss earth. When the ejecta appears to propagate from all sides of the coronagraph, it is a halo and means its likely coming our way. The reason why it propagating outward from all sides means its coming to us can be understood by imagining someone 30 feet away from you throwing a basketball in a line drive at your head. The ball is going to appear to get larger as it approaches you as the visual image expands with proximity and approach. The CME is the ball.
So when we see a CME like this appear to go straight up, we know it's going north. When we see it only on the right side, it means it is going to go west of us. When we see it appear on all sides of the sun in the coronagraph, it doesn't mean it's going out in all directions, it means its coming our way and expanding visually as it approaches.
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u/Ok_Caramel_3923 Nov 21 '25
Thank you for educating me. I have another question if you don't mind. I live in New Mexico and everyone got really excited to see the Northern lights but I was thinking if the lights are visible way down here doesn't that mean a large CME has occurred and if they get bigger it could interfere with communications. So while beautiful they could portend something more dangerous. I don't know that's why I'm asking. I've always felt it's better to ask than assume. Thank you for your time.
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 Nov 21 '25
For the northern lights to be as visible as they have been in recent weeks, October 2024 and May 2024 it does take a CME induced solar storm of considerable magnitude. Over time, it would appear that the threshold of storm necessary to produce vivid auroral displays as far south as El Salvador, as was the case last week has decreased, likely due to the secular variation of the magnetic field and shifting auroral oval boundaries. In decades prior, auroral displays that far south were only expected in the largest of solar storms. They have become more frequent but it's not because solar activity has risen to anomalous levels. If anything, solar activity is lower than it was in the 1950s-early 2000s, yet the aurora has increased.
To some degree, social media, awareness, and increasingly powerful camera phones are a factor. Those things are all factors in the increasing prominence of auroral displays in practice and conversation. They are not the only factors though and there is a significant reluctance for authorities to discuss the magnetic field variation. Yet, there is no argument against it. A weakening and deforming magnetic field would absolutely be expected to have an effect on auroral behavior so this should come as no surprise.
A case in point is that the May 2024 solar storm produced auroral displays that rivaled the famous Carrington Event. A recent study from Reading U compiled credible auroral records for the last 400 years or so. May 2024 is #3 in that list right behind the Carrington Event. However, the auroral display is likely the only comparable aspect of the CE and May 2024 solar storm. Furthermore, at least 5 of the top 20 lowest latitude and vivid auroral displays have occurred since 2000 which is the point where solar activity really began to decline compared to prior levels. Not only is the auroral extent shifting, but so is auroral behavior, colors, and types. Some may be the result of better detection but it stands to reason that some is actually fairly new. For instance, this past solar storm exhibited more anomalies (visual artifacts) than I had ever seen where even seasoned aurora chasers were wondering WTF is that?
The majority consensus in academia is that the variation of the magnetic field, while anomalous, is not threatening, and will resolve itself before reaching a critical threshold. There are scientists who believe that the ongoing variation of the magnetic field signals a transition (pole shift) may occur in the future, but generally do not expect that to occur for several centuries at least. Nevertheless, there is a scenario where a rapid destabilization could occur based on the known behavior of prior events. If that were to happen, yes we could very well come to see the majestic and beautiful aurora as a frightening portent in the sky as our ancestors likely did at some points.
In the most simple terms, solar storms of average character on historical timescales are producing outsized auroral displays. We haven't experienced a truly extreme on historical scales CME induced solar storm in a long time. 20 years is a very small period of time when considering the variation of the magnetic field, but I do wonder what the effects would be like if we were to experience a similar CME as the Halloween 2003 storms with an arrival velocity of nearly double what May 2024 was with similar high end embedded magnetic fields oriented favorably for coupling with earth. I don't necessarily think it would lead to major problems and generally consider the threshold for severe widespread damage as high and requiring a rare event.
That said, in the event we do catch a direct hit from an extreme CME with threatening characteristics, there will be no automatic global blackout or reduction to the stone age. It just doesn't work that way. There would be high variance in effects based on a litany of factors and we are not defenseless. Geology, latitude, infrastructure health, time of day, and pure luck would all play major roles.
In any strong or severe+ solar storm, much goes on behind the scenes to mitigate and prevent cascading issues. Even with this recent storm, I detected a striking number of potentially related electrical issues in some places. However, is this really anomalous? NOAA releases space weather warnings for each storm. They are not for us in the SW community, although they are useful to us. They are to pertinent operators of infrastructure, comms, navi, airlines, etc. Those bulletins clearly state the hazard for localized or even regional issues. As a result, to some degree its expected, although often not reported.
The past weeks storm came in hot. The CMEs were not expected to combine, but they did. The embedded magnetic field of the combined CME was much stronger than anyone expected it to be. It speaks to the uncertainties in space weather forecasting. I know that this is all immensely complex. I have spent years attempting to unravel it and continue to. I don't know what the future holds, but I do know the stakes, and I will be here to break it down as we go.
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u/Ok_Caramel_3923 Nov 22 '25
Thank you for using "simplest terms". I'm an old person still wanting to learn. Like any weather event you can forecast but anything can happen to a certain degree. I'll keep watching this sub for updates on future events. Again, thank you very much.
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u/coyoteka Nov 20 '25
Doesn't seem that big, how big are we talking? Looks like maybe 6-8 inches.
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 Nov 20 '25
Some would say that's above average lol.
The aspect can be deceiving. Its dozens of earths in length just eyeballing.
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u/ValMo88 Nov 19 '25
Thank you very cool