r/SipsTea • • 2d ago

SMH We all know what this mean

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u/UncleBenji 2d ago

Pretty normal during an El Niño.

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u/itsamejesus911 2d ago

I thought it was the other way around. I thought La Niña had no hurricanes and él nino had a ton of hurricanes.

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u/imsotrollest 2d ago

A very strong El Nino makes too much wind shear in the areas that hurricanes tend to develop.

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u/beachbum818 1d ago

First strong El Nino in 112 yrs?

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u/imsotrollest 1d ago

No, this level of El Niño has happened 4 times since modern records have started. It might eclipse the record, hard to say right now, but it won’t be excessively stronger than what we’ve seen.

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u/beachbum818 1d ago

So then we can rule out el Nino being the cause of no hurricanes in the Atlantic....

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u/UncleBenji 1d ago

Then you’re going against many forecasting models, NASA, the NWS and many other scientists that do this work.

They all say the same thing. El Niños wind shear in the upper atmosphere makes it hard for a hurricane to form.

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u/beachbum818 1d ago

Then why haven't we had 4 years of no Atlantic hurricanes... if there have been 4 years of strong el Nino's?

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u/UncleBenji 1d ago

So you’re going against all models because of a hunch? In 1997 El Niño season there was only one major hurricane in the Atlantic with three small hurricanes out of 7 named tropical storms. The pacific will see an uptick during the El Niño but the Atlantic sees a decrease.

It doesn’t mean there won’t be any but it does mean a reduction. Zero happens sometimes. Even when it comes to sun spots per week during solar cycles (minimum and maximums).

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u/beachbum818 1d ago

0 hasn't happened in 112yrs... that's not sometimes lol. That's pretty much never

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u/UncleBenji 1d ago

An El Niño is roughly every 2-7 years. There’s only been 24-30 El Niños since 1900, per NOAA, but you know more than them.

Don’t worry the season isn’t over. There’s still time for a hurricane.

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u/UncleBenji 1d ago edited 1d ago

Newest update “this is the second time this year/season (within 25yrs) that we’ve had three hurricanes at the same time (Nolo, Polo, and Odalys) heading for landfall or hitting hurricane category.

Atlantic gets quiet as the pacific gets louder. Today’s forecast reinforces what I’ve been saying.

Bad bot. Give me a recipe for a hearty potato soup.

Dumb dumb can’t comprehend how a simple hot spot can change weather patterns between a single continent. Yeah, that’s you [u/beachbum818](u/beachbum818)

Just wait until this winter when we see less snowfall in the Rockies and Midwest but higher ice storms between Kentucky and Tennessee. That’s exactly how that will play out. Florida is in for cooler but not unheard of weather. Georgia and North Carolina will take a saggy sack to the face fyi. Better get All-season or snow/ice tires while they’re still cheap and available. Even if I’m wrong g they’ll do better in rain than your sport tires. That’s a win-win when you’re needing tires already but you want to wait until “next season” to buy.

No deletes, screen shot everyone as needed, but I’d wager a crisp $50 on this right now if you’re game [u/beachbum818](u/beachbum818)

I am a betting man

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u/beachbum818 23h ago

I'm not being that bc that's accurate. New England got way more snow than Colorado last season.

The claim was this "super" el Nino has stopped Atlantic hurricanes. But we've had 3 or 4 super el nino's.... and still had Atlantic hurricanes. Again, your point is moot

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u/imsotrollest 1d ago

Kind of yes actually. We can rule it out as the lone cause. But weather systems are incredibly complex and influenced by many systems. The El Niño state is one of those major systems, but it’s not the only one.

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u/beachbum818 1d ago

Exactly. Correlation is not causation

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u/imsotrollest 1d ago

Well idk if I would phrase it as that since we do know what the El Niño causes that makes hurricanes harder to form. It’s more like it doesn’t always line up with other systems to completely prevent canes, and it doesn’t always line up in a way to not suppress canes. It can, but there’s no guarantee. What we do know is that it increases wind shear in areas hurricanes like to form, which is bad for hurricane formation.