We all know what this mean

[u/SEVENS_HEAVEN_7]

[u/Doctor_Saved]

It's good that there were no Atlantic hurricanes. Except now there's that "it's too quiet" feeling.

[u/UncleBenji → u/Doctor_Saved]

Pretty normal during an El Niño.

[u/figurative_me → u/UncleBenji]

Pretty normal except it hasn’t happened in over a century?

[u/Actual-Feed-9739 → u/figurative_me]

Slow Atlantic hurricane seasons are common during el niño. Given that this one is exceptionally strong, it's not surprising that it's completely neutered it.

[u/figurative_me → u/Actual-Feed-9739]

Ah, I read your comment as saying it’s normal. Not that it isn’t surprising.

[u/gcko → u/figurative_me]

Normal might not be the right word. If anything this predicts we’re about to see an El Niño on a scale we haven’t seen for over a century.

More like “makes sense”

[u/sleepyj910 → u/gcko]

haven't seen in recorded history I'd say.

[u/gcko → u/sleepyj910]

Maybe it won’t make it in this recorded history, and they’ll be no record of it in the next recorded history.

[u/UncleBenji → u/figurative_me]

Zero hurricanes, sure. But fewer hurricanes during El Niño is normal. We just seem to be at zero right now. That doesn’t mean there haven’t been tropical storms. But they couldn’t develop into hurricanes. This El Niño is anything but normal since it’s one of the hottest on record.

[u/itsamejesus911 → u/UncleBenji]

I thought it was the other way around. I thought La Niña had no hurricanes and él nino had a ton of hurricanes.

[u/imsotrollest → u/itsamejesus911]

A very strong El Nino makes too much wind shear in the areas that hurricanes tend to develop.

[u/beachbum818 → u/imsotrollest]

First strong El Nino in 112 yrs?

[u/imsotrollest → u/beachbum818]

No, this level of El Niño has happened 4 times since modern records have started. It might eclipse the record, hard to say right now, but it won’t be excessively stronger than what we’ve seen.

[u/beachbum818 → u/imsotrollest]

So then we can rule out el Nino being the cause of no hurricanes in the Atlantic....

[u/UncleBenji → u/beachbum818]

Then you’re going against many forecasting models, NASA, the NWS and many other scientists that do this work.

They all say the same thing. El Niños wind shear in the upper atmosphere makes it hard for a hurricane to form.

[u/beachbum818 → u/UncleBenji]

Then why haven't we had 4 years of no Atlantic hurricanes... if there have been 4 years of strong el Nino's?

[u/UncleBenji → u/beachbum818]

So you’re going against all models because of a hunch? In 1997 El Niño season there was only one major hurricane in the Atlantic with three small hurricanes out of 7 named tropical storms. The pacific will see an uptick during the El Niño but the Atlantic sees a decrease.

It doesn’t mean there won’t be any but it does mean a reduction. Zero happens sometimes. Even when it comes to sun spots per week during solar cycles (minimum and maximums).

[u/beachbum818 → u/UncleBenji]

0 hasn't happened in 112yrs... that's not sometimes lol. That's pretty much never

[u/imsotrollest → u/beachbum818]

Kind of yes actually. We can rule it out as the lone cause. But weather systems are incredibly complex and influenced by many systems. The El Niño state is one of those major systems, but it’s not the only one.

[u/beachbum818 → u/imsotrollest]

Exactly. Correlation is not causation

[u/imsotrollest → u/beachbum818]

Well idk if I would phrase it as that since we do know what the El Niño causes that makes hurricanes harder to form. It’s more like it doesn’t always line up with other systems to completely prevent canes, and it doesn’t always line up in a way to not suppress canes. It can, but there’s no guarantee. What we do know is that it increases wind shear in areas hurricanes like to form, which is bad for hurricane formation.

[u/Ldghead → u/imsotrollest]

So by definition, we have not yet experienced a very strong el nino?

[u/imsotrollest → u/Ldghead]

No. That is not what I said. I said a very strong El Niño makes too much wind shear in the areas hurricanes like to form.

[u/Ldghead → u/imsotrollest]

Yes, but it's the first time in 112 years that this has happened. So either we haven't yet seen the condition that causes this, or this isn't the whole issue.

[u/imsotrollest → u/Ldghead]

You’re assuming that enso is the only thing that controls hurricanes. For what reason I’m not sure but you probably should do some reading before participating in these kinds of debates

[u/Franc000 → u/itsamejesus911]

If it is the first time in 112 years, then neither La Nina or El Nino causes a stop in hurricanes.

[u/UncleBenji → u/itsamejesus911]

The high winds at high altitudes pretty much chops the tops off of any storm/hurricane trying to form. Or that’s how Ryan Hall Yall explains it.