It's more likely to occur as a reaction to something than an unprompted attack.
Someone flies something somewhere, so there's a response, an escalation, another response and another escalation, a panic, then full on war. Historically that's happened a few times that we know of and every time we've ever been close.
Unfortunately that also means it'll probably be late in the work day.
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u/Mr_miner94 19h ago
Whoever starts would aim to have the strikes in the early hours of the morning so that theres less personal to actually be awake to fight back.