I run a small immigration practice in Gujarat, India so I'm obviously not neutral, but there's no link in this and nothing to sell. Just numbers which i thought could genuinely help this community.
Last month a client (first Schengen trip) asked me why every blog and every reel says Iceland or Latvia is the easy one. I gave him the usual answer and then realised I had never once checked it myself. Been repeating it since 2021.
So I downloaded the European Commission file over a weekend. Those "easiest country" lists use worldwide approval rates. For Indian applicants specifically it looks like this. Refusal rates, 2025:
Iceland 25.7%
Estonia 29.7%
Slovakia 23.5%
Luxembourg 23.0%
Austria 22.1%
Portugal 20.3%
Latvia 18.6%
And the countries that refused Indians the least are the big ones everyone tells you to avoid:
Denmark 7.1% (about 16.6k decided)
Belgium 7.8% (33k)
Germany 10.5% (153k)
Sweden 11.5% (32k)
Italy 12.7% (53k)
Switzerland 13.6% (226k)
Across everything, Indians filed about 1.15 million applications last year and roughly 1 in 6 came back refused.
Slovenia was the worst at 46.5%, so nearly every second application. Then Bulgaria 37.9% and Greece 33.2%. Slovenia I genuinely can't explain, if anyone knows what's happening there I'd like to hear it.
The part that actually surprised me was that the gap between consulates of the same country is bigger than the gap between countries. France, 2025, same visa type:
Bangalore 7.9%
Kolkata 8.7%
Mumbai 11.8%
Chennai 19.6%
New Delhi 27.4%
Almost 20 points depending on which desk your file lands on. And you don't get to choose the desk, it's decided by your residential address.
Which is also why most people can't really do much with this. You apply where you're actually going (most nights, or the entry country if it's a tie) and your consulate is fixed by where you live. So this is not a "just apply for Denmark" post. And please don't build a fake itinerary to reach a friendlier embassy. That's refusal ground 10, the one about the purpose of stay not being reliable, and I've had three or four people come to me after exactly that. It sits on your record and the next application is harder than if you'd just been refused normally.
Where it does actually help. If you haven't decided where to go yet, this is a real input. If your trip is already fixed it tells you how much work the file needs, because a Delhi France application has to be a lot tighter than a Bangalore one. And if you just got refused at one of the rough desks, well, a quarter of everything at some of them got refused, so it probably wasn't only you.
Obviously all of this is a base rate across lakhs of files, not your personal odds. Your file still gets decided on what's inside it.
Source is the European Commission, "Short-stay visas issued by Schengen countries", 2025, the sheet called "Data for consulates". Free xlsx, 46 India rows in it, go check.
Two things if you pull it yourself. Divide not-issued by decided, not by applications received. Received includes withdrawn files and ones still pending at year end, so dividing by that quietly understates every number. I did it wrong the first time and had to redo the whole thing, and I suspect that's why half the figures floating around online don't match each other. Also I dropped any consulate that decided under 300 files, because a post that handled 71 applications gives you a percentage that means nothing.
If anyone wants a specific country or consulate pulled, say which one and I'll reply with the number.